President-Elect Trump disagrees “very vehemently” on firing long-range missiles into Russia.
On November 5, 2024, Donald J. Trump was elected the 47th President of the United States. He will inherit US involvement in two wars – the war between Russia and Ukraine, and the current conflict in the Middle East. In part, Trump campaigned on a platform of ending the Ukraine war. Trump won both the popular vote and the electoral college, a clear mandate for peace. Americans voted for peace. Americans voted to sort out their domestic problems first.
Trump will be inaugurated on January 20, 2025. Typically, the outgoing administration respects the will of the people and attempts to smooth the transition to the incoming president’s policies. In this case, the Biden administration appears to be making every effort to complicate the world situation in advance of Trump’s inauguration. So, too, are the European countries, members of NATO.
In particular, the Biden administration and the Europeans have been escalating the Ukraine war in an effort to “Trump-Proof Ukraine” and “Trump-Proof NATO.” This effort has consisted of transferring as much money and as many weapons to Ukraine as possible. It has involved escalating the fighting by firing long-range missiles (US ATACM and British Storm Shadow missiles) into Russia.
Prior to the November 5 election, Biden refused to fire long-range missiles into Russia. He reversed this decision immediately following November 5. What changed? Trump won. Biden did not want to saddle the Democrat candidate with an escalated war during campaign season.
In addition to his peace mandate, Trump wants to implement an ambitious program of domestic change. If his presidency is complicated by foreign entanglements, he may fail to implement his domestic agenda.
Long-Range Missiles
The firing of long-range missiles from Ukraine into Russia, inside Russia’s Pre-2014 borders, is a sensitive issue. There is nothing new about these weapons. Let us be clear: ATACMs and Storm Shadows have been used for a long time in the Russia-Ukraine war. The Russians have learned to cope with them very well.
On November 5, 2024, Donald J. Trump was elected the 47th President of the United States. He will inherit US involvement in two wars – the war between Russia and Ukraine, and the current conflict in the Middle East. In part, Trump campaigned on a platform of ending the Ukraine war. Trump won both the popular vote and the electoral college, a clear mandate for peace. Americans voted for peace. Americans voted to sort out their domestic problems first.
Trump will be inaugurated on January 20, 2025. Typically, the outgoing administration respects the will of the people and attempts to smooth the transition to the incoming president’s policies. In this case, the Biden administration appears to be making every effort to complicate the world situation in advance of Trump’s inauguration. So, too, are the European countries, members of NATO.
In particular, the Biden administration and the Europeans have been escalating the Ukraine war in an effort to “Trump-Proof Ukraine” and “Trump-Proof NATO.” This effort has consisted of transferring as much money and as many weapons to Ukraine as possible. It has involved escalating the fighting by firing long-range missiles (US ATACM and British Storm Shadow missiles) into Russia.
Prior to the November 5 election, Biden refused to fire long-range missiles into Russia. He reversed this decision immediately following November 5. What changed? Trump won. Biden did not want to saddle the Democrat candidate with an escalated war during campaign season.
In addition to his peace mandate, Trump wants to implement an ambitious program of domestic change. If his presidency is complicated by foreign entanglements, he may fail to implement his domestic agenda.
Long-Range Missiles
The firing of long-range missiles from Ukraine into Russia, inside Russia’s Pre-2014 borders, is a sensitive issue. There is nothing new about these weapons. Let us be clear: ATACMs and Storm Shadows have been used for a long time in the Russia-Ukraine war. The Russians have learned to cope with them very well.
What is new is firing them into Russia proper.
Because ATACMs and Storm Shadows cannot be fired without the direct involvement of US operators, Russia considers their firing into Russia to be a direct involvement of the US in the war.
For details on why this is so, see the SOFREP article: How We Execute Long Range Missile Attacks. Russia has warned that they will respond to any such attacks and consider assets of the US, UK, and NATO to be legitimate targets.
Attacks and Retaliation
ATACMs and Storm Shadows were subsequently fired into Russian territory. Russia responded by destroying the Yuzhmash factory in Dnipropetrovsk with a new IRBM, the Oreshnik (see SOFREP article Russia’s Oreshnik Missile Changes the Game). Russia hoped that this warning would be sufficient to discourage the US, UK, and Ukraine from firing more missiles into Russia’s Pre-2014 territory.
It did not. Further strikes occurred, followed by Russian retaliation with Iskanders that destroyed 4 ATACM launchers and killed foreign operators. Interestingly, there have been no British Storm Shadow strikes since the Oreshnik attack on Yuzhmash. Nevertheless, the Biden administration and Ukraine continued to escalate.
Trump Speaks Out Against Long-Range Strikes Into Russia
All through November, Trump remained silent as Biden escalated the conflict with ATACM and Storm Shadow strikes. Communication of the incoming Trump administration’s position was confused by uncoordinated utterances by as yet unconfirmed Trump appointees. Many Trump supporters were outraged by Biden’s escalation and disturbed by Trump’s silence and the positions articulated by his appointees.
On December 7, Trump was named Time Magazine’s “Person of the Year.” In an exclusive Time interview Trump Time Person of the Year Interview, Trump made his position on the long-range missile strikes crystal clear. Trump said:
“It’s crazy what’s taking place. It’s crazy. I disagree very vehemently with sending missiles hundreds of miles into Russia. Why are we doing that? We’re just escalating this war and making it worse. That should not have been allowed to be done. Now they’re doing not only missiles, but they’re doing other types of weapons. And I think that’s a very big mistake, very big mistake.”
Later in the interview, Trump said:
“Anything can happen. Anything can happen. It’s a very volatile situation. I think the most dangerous thing right now is what’s happening, where Zelensky has decided, with the approval of, I assume, the President, to start shooting missiles into Russia. I think that’s a major escalation. I think it’s a foolish decision. But I would imagine people are waiting until I get in before anything happens. I would imagine. I think that would be very smart to do that.”
Could President-Elect Trump possibly be more clear?
Because the US, UK, and Ukraine have already fired missiles into Russia, it appears the last sentences in bold may have been meant for the Russians. Encouraging all parties to exercise restraint until Trump takes office on January 20.
Undeterred, the US and Ukraine fired six ATACM missiles into Rostov Oblast on December 11. The targets may have included the Russian C2 center in Rostov itself. Four of the missiles were shot down; two hit a military airfield in Taganrog but caused no damage.
Analysts had feared the Russians would retaliate with the Oreshnik against a high-value decision-making center in Ukraine. Instead, in retaliation, Russia launched a heavy missile and drone strike across Ukraine.
“On December 11, 2024, six American-made ATACMS tactical missiles were launched from the territory of Ukraine at a military airfield near the city of Taganrog. In response to the use of American long-range weapons, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation launched a massive strike with long-range air- and sea-based precision weapons and strike unmanned aerial vehicles against critical facilities of Ukraine’s fuel and energy infrastructure that ensure the operation of the military-industrial complex.” (Ukrainian National News UNN)
Someone may have been paying attention to Trump’s utterances.
Complications
Ukraine continues to lose the war. Russian forces are advancing at an increasingly rapid pace. Whatever the Russian losses, Ukraine’s forces are being destroyed by attrition at an unsustainable rate (see SOFREP article: Ukraine Struggles With Epidemic of Desertion). ATACM and Storm Shadow attacks are pin-pricks because most Russian high-value assets have been moved out of range. Australia has given Ukraine 40 retired M1 Abrams tanks, and the US has given 150 Strykers, which are being prepared for another mini-offensive expected before January 20.
The mini-offensive will lack punch and adequate follow-through. However, continued provocations like missile strikes inside Russia and the recent assassination by Ukraine of a senior Russian general inside Moscow (Ukraine has claimed responsibility in the Western media) pose a problem. On December 17, more ATACMs were launched against Rostov. Russia has to respond, or it will appear weak. On the other hand, a powerful response risks complicating negotiations with Trump post-January 20.
Newsweek reported on December 17 that Zelensky told Trump he was in no hurry to end the war. Faced with this intransigence, Trump may have no choice but to cut US support to Ukraine in order to end the war.
It must be said Russia is skeptical that negotiations with Trump will succeed, but are willing to try. Communication is confused by background noise from the Ukrainians, the greater Europeans, and the Biden administration.
Trump met for twenty or thirty minutes with President Zelensky and President Macron in Paris. After the meeting, President Zelensky said it was useless to talk to Trump because he had no power. Zelensky said he would talk to President Biden and ask for NATO membership.
President-Elect Trump has not yet made a proposal, nor should he, before January 20. Until then, utterances coming from Ukraine, NATO, and greater European countries confuse the issue. If there is a deal to be done, and a deal is by no means certain, the Trump administration will lead negotiations.
Trump appears to be choosing his words carefully. When the time comes to make a proposal to the Russians, he will make it, and he is the only person we should listen to.
Cameron Curtis has spent thirty years in the financial markets as a trader and risk manager. He was on the trade floor when Saddam’s tanks rolled into Kuwait, when the air wars opened over Baghdad and Belgrade, and when the financial crisis swallowed the world. He’s studied military affairs and warfare all his adult life. His popular Breed series of military adventure thrillers are admired for combining deep expertise with propulsive action. The premises are realistic, the stories adrenaline-fuelled and emotionally engaging.
**Editor’s Note: This holiday, give the gift of high-octane action with the BREED series!
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