That’s the thing about Americans: we develop “war fatigue” fairly quickly. The Russo-Ukraine war has been slogging on for 1,130 days as of this writing. Most of us, unless you do this kind of thing for a living, aren’t really keeping up with it anymore. We have no dog in the fight. It’s another “TV war” half a world away. Russians take land from Ukraine and blow up civilian buildings…Ukrainians launch cross-border attacks into Russia…lots of people die on both sides, and so it goes. We keep sipping our frappuccinos and lattes, some complaining about how much money we’ve sent to “those people.”

While the world scrolls past headlines about Ukraine and focuses on other crises, a brutal chess match is still unfolding in Eastern Europe. After two years of bloody fighting, Ukraine is standing at a critical turning point. The front lines have barely moved since last fall. Western politicians have shifted their attention elsewhere, and media coverage has dried up.

But make no mistake — this war isn’t over. It’s entering a fresh, violent phase, and what happens over the next few months could shape the future of Europe’s security for the next decade.

Where Things Stand Right Now

To understand where this fight is headed, you have to look at where things stand now. Ukraine’s summer offensive in 2024 threw everything it had at Russian positions but failed to land a knockout blow. Russian forces, battered but not broken, dug in deep and turned the conflict into a grinding war of attrition. Western military aid slowed to a trickle as U.S. and European support started to fade. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded by cleaning house — replacing top generals and military leadership in early 2025 to shake things up and regain momentum. Both sides have paid a steep price. Russia suffered over 420,000 casualties last year and lost thousands of tanks and armored vehicles. Ukraine, for its part, burned through equipment and manpower, fighting trench by trench. Neither side can claim victory. Morale has taken a hit on both ends of the battlefield. It’s a stalemate. 

What Ukraine’s Spring Offensive Will Look Like

So, what will Ukraine’s spring offensive look like? I don’t have a crystal ball, but I will give you my best guess based on the most up-to-date open-source intelligence. 

The terrain itself will be one of the biggest obstacles. Spring in Ukraine means thawing snow, rain, and mud — a nightmare for heavy armor and vehicle movement.

Zelensky’s forces have three likely targets. First is the Donbas region, where control remains hotly contested and politically significant for both Kyiv and Moscow. Second, the Zaporizhzhia corridor — a key land bridge connecting Russia to occupied Crimea. Cutting through there would be a game-changer, disrupting Russian logistics in the south. Third, Ukraine may attempt probing attacks toward Crimea itself, testing the defenses and looking for weaknesses without committing to a full-scale invasion.