War Three Years On: The Ongoing Struggle in Ukraine

As we marked the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, it’s important to reflect on the significant events that have occurred since then and consider the potential future course of this ongoing conflict.

The Invasion and Early Resistance

On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a “special military operation” aimed at “demilitarizing and denazifying” Ukraine. This pretext led to a large-scale invasion from multiple fronts, including Belarus in the north, Crimea in the south, and Russia in the east. The initial objective appeared to be a swift capture of Kyiv and the establishment of a pro-Russian regime.

However, Ukrainian forces, bolstered by an outpouring of civilian volunteers and international support, mounted a formidable defense. The Battle of Kyiv became a symbol of Ukrainian resilience, culminating in Russian forces retreating from the northern front by April 2022. This early setback for Russia demonstrated that their anticipated quick victory was a miscalculation.

Escalation and Stalemate

Following the failed assault on Kyiv, Russia shifted its focus to Eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donbas region. The summer of 2022 saw intense battles, with cities like Mariupol enduring devastating sieges. Despite superior numbers and artillery, Russian advances were met with staunch Ukrainian resistance, leading to a bloody stalemate.

In response to the escalating conflict, Western nations imposed severe economic sanctions on Russia and supplied Ukraine with advanced weaponry. This support was crucial in enabling Ukraine to launch counteroffensives in late 2022, reclaiming significant territories in Kharkiv and Kherson regions. These successes, however, came at a high cost, with both sides suffering substantial casualties.

The War’s Toll

As of early 2025, the war has exacted a heavy toll. NATO reports estimate over one million military casualties combined, with approximately 300,000 Ukrainian and 700,000 Russian soldiers killed or wounded. Civilian losses are also staggering, with at least 11,700 Ukrainian non-combatants confirmed dead. The infrastructure damage across Ukraine is extensive, with entire cities reduced to rubble and millions of residents displaced.

It is important to note here that the NATO figures are much higher than the self-reported casualty figures for Russia (up to 200,000 deaths reported) and Ukraine (up to 70,000 military deaths reported).

Political Shifts and Negotiation Attempts

The prolonged conflict has led to significant political developments. In the United States, President Trump has expressed a desire to expedite an end to the war. His administration has initiated direct talks with Russian officials, signaling a potential shift in U.S. policy. However, these efforts face challenges, as Russia appears intent on using negotiations to solidify its territorial gains and end international isolation without making substantial concessions.

European allies, meanwhile, are apprehensive about the potential outcomes of U.S.-Russia negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remains steadfast in his demand for the restoration of all occupied territories and insists that any peace agreement must respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The Current Battlefield Dynamics

The front lines have largely stabilized, with Russia controlling approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory. Despite early setbacks, Russian forces have adapted, entrenching themselves in occupied regions and continuing to launch artillery and missile strikes deep into Ukrainian territory. Ukraine, while demonstrating remarkable resilience, faces challenges related to manpower and ammunition shortages.

In August 2024, Ukraine launched a bold incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, marking a significant escalation. This operation aimed to disrupt Russian supply lines and demonstrate Ukraine’s capability to take the fight beyond its borders. The incursion prompted Russia to divert troops from other fronts, indicating the strain on Russian military resources.

Outlook for the Future

The future of the conflict remains uncertain. Several scenarios are possible:

Prolonged Stalemate: Both sides continue to engage in attritional warfare, with neither achieving a decisive breakthrough. This scenario could lead to a frozen conflict, with intermittent clashes but no comprehensive peace agreement.

Negotiated Settlement: International pressure, combined with war fatigue, might push both parties toward a negotiated settlement. However, aligning the divergent objectives of Ukraine, Russia, and Western allies presents a formidable challenge.

Escalation: The introduction of new weaponry, changes in international support, or unforeseen events could lead to a significant escalation, potentially drawing in additional actors and widening the conflict.

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski has suggested that with sustained European support, Ukraine could maintain its defense through the end of 2025. This underscores the critical role of international assistance in sustaining Ukraine’s resistance.

Conclusion

Three years into the conflict, Ukraine’s struggle against Russian aggression continues to shape the geopolitical landscape. The resilience of the Ukrainian people, combined with international support, has thus far prevented a complete Russian takeover. However, the path to lasting peace remains fraught with complexities, requiring sustained diplomatic efforts, military support, and a steadfast commitment to upholding international law and sovereignty.