The energy front
Putin’s last hope of regaining the initiative is to break Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and has escalated strikes since October 10, knocking out up to half of Ukraine’s power grid. But Ukrainian will has not broken amid round-the-clock repairs and emergency and scheduled blackouts.
Now there are signs of Russia’s diminishing capacity to continue this barrage. During the strikes on December 5, for example, just over 70 missiles were launched, more than 60 of which were reportedly downed by Ukrainian air defences. Western officials say the Iranian drones have been exhausted, and Tehran has not agreed to a further delivery. Russia now has a stock sufficient for only two or three more mass attacks, according to Ukraine’s presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak.
Meanwhile, Russia has been trying to break European support for Kyiv with the threat of a reduction, or even a complete halt, of energy supplies. It shut down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline and is suspected being behind the explosions damaging both Nord Stream 1 and 2 in the Baltic Sea.
But this energy offensive, as well as the “grain war” has failed to dent western resolve to stand by Ukraine. European countries – individually and through the European Union – have actually stepped up financial and military assistance.
Legal and diplomatic front
On the diplomatic front, there is no prospect of negotiations. Ukraine’s precondition is Russian withdrawal from territory occupied this year. Putin shows no sign of giving up on his ambition for the eventual fall of the Zelensky government and retention of his “annexations”.
But there is also a focus now on justice and accountability for war crimes. The UN and the International Criminal Court are already carrying out investigations in liberated areas. Even more significantly, there is now a sustained effort for Russian leaders as well as individual troops to face prosecution. Zelensky’s call for an international tribunal is now being supported by France and the Netherlands as well as the Baltic States.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said on November 30 that the European Union, with UN backing, will support the special court. A draft UN resolution is being prepared for consideration by the general assembly.
Russian front
Meanwhile, Putin faces pressure on multiple domestic fronts. The Russian economy, now on a wartime footing, is projected to contract by 8% over 2022-2023. Much of the manufacturing sector, such as the automotive industry, is crippled. Russia’s oil revenue is falling, even before this week’s imposition of a price cap by the European Union, G7 countries and Australia.
The Kremlin has cracked down on dissent with detentions and the threat of lengthy prison sentences, but Putin’s mass mobilisation and the Ukrainian advances are spurring discontent within his own ranks as well as the Russian public.
In a November poll by the independent Levada Center, 53% of respondents favour negotiations versus 41% who want to continue the war. An internal Kremlin-commissioned poll was even starker for Putin: 55% favoured peace talks and only 25% wanted a continuation of the war.
Winter is coming – and it’s cold across Ukraine. But the chilly winds of defeat? Those are blowing through Moscow’s Red Square.
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This piece is written by Scott Lucas, Professor, Clinton Institute from the University College Dublin. Want to feature your story? Reach out to us at [email protected].
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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