The second document was a Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) SITREP. It concisely stated that the trajectory and concentrated impact excluded the possibility of an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) or Rocket Propelled Grenade (RPG). The blast radius and crater suggested a small warhead (20-45lb). It also reported that the U.N. envoy’s security detail discovered a partially-destroyed fin. The fin looked similar to that of a drone missile.
“So, who pulled the trigger?” I asked.
“We must make a list of capabilities and opportunity to determine who’s to gain or lose most out of the failed negotiations,” said John. He drew out a notebook and began scribbling down charts.
Manuela, who thus far had been silent, whispered “Do we even know which of the three countries have drones? I mean, the DIA report clearly points that way.”
“But, he didn’t give us any drone reports,” said John.
“I think the whole point is to try and think outside the box,” I shot back. “Look, we’ve limited intelligence, just as real CIA analysts would have in such a situation. I mean, the guy was killed this morning. Let’s try to be creative.”
I looked at Michael, who was observing the would-be analysts and jotting down notes in a black leather notebook.
“Em, excuse me, sir, do we’ve any information on the three countries’ drone capabilities?”
“Why would you assume that we would have such intel?” he said.
Before I could respond, Manuela came in like thunder. “Given that we’ve a close diplomatic and military relationship with Nearland — and a vested interest in the quick, peaceful resolution of the territorial dispute — I don’t think it would be unreasonable to assume sufficient intel on the three states’ military capabilities.”
Was that a grin on Michael’s face?
“You’re correct. The DIA, NSA, and CIA case officers on the ground have managed to form a pretty comprehensive picture of their drone capabilities.”
He went back to the table and picked up a fourth document. It was another DIA report with technical details on each nation’s drone fleet. He added that radar intercepts from a nearby Air Force base reported no activity below 8,000ft. Here’s what we had on our hands:
FADIS AX-1
- UAV number: 1
- Crew: 1 on ground.
- Length: 25 ft
- Wingspan: 45 ft
- Height: 6 ft
- Empty weight: 2,235 lbs
- Max takeoff weight: 5,657 lbs
- Fuel capacity: 1,900 lbs
- Payload: Suicide-drone, 50lb warhead inside nose.
- Maximum speed: 325 mph
- Range: 300 miles
- Endurance: 7 hours fully loaded
- Operational altitude:6,500 ft
NEARLAND AX-17
- UAV number: 3
- Crew: 2 on ground
- Length: 45 ft
- Wingspan: 70 ft
- Height: 12 ft
- Empty weight: 4,800 lbs
- Max takeoff weight: 11,375 lbs
- Fuel capacity: 3,600 lbs
- Payload: 2x Wolfhead missiles (22lb warhead)
- Maximum speed: 500 mph
- Range: 500 miles
- Endurance: 10 hours fully loaded
- Operational altitude: 9,500 ft
TIMERIS AX-36
- UAV number: 4
- Crew: 2 on ground
- Length: 35 ft
- Wingspan: 60 ft
- Height: 10 ft
- Empty weight: 3,800 lbs
- Max takeoff weight: 9,375 lbs
- Fuel capacity: 3,000 lbs
- Payload: 4x Hotspur missiles (22lb warhead)
- Maximum speed: 600 mph
- Range: 800 miles
- Endurance: 8 hours fully loaded
- Operational altitude: 7,500 ft
As we gulped down the new information, I glanced at my watch and noted that we only had 30 minutes before the event was supposed to end.
“All right, which of these could have done it?” I asked. “From a first glance, it looks like all of them have the capabilities.”
“I think we should exclude Fadis,” said John. “They only have one UAV. It would be fairly easy to ascertain if they did it.”
“But, then again, investigators would need permission to go through the Fadian military’s inventory,” said Manuela.
“What about the explosion blast?” I asked. “If we knew how large an explosion a 22lb or 45lb warhead can make, then we could begin erasing some of them. For instance, Fadis. Their UAV has a 50lb warhead. Remember that the U.N. guys said it was between 20lb and 45lb.”
But we were too slow in asking. One of the other teams enquired how large an explosion would a 22lb or 45lb missile make.
“Good question,” said Michael. “But that’s a negative — we don’t have that intel at the moment. And it will be sometime before our scientists could come up with an update. You must make an analysis with what intel you’ve got in your hands. Speaking of which—” He went to the room’s whiteboard and wrote:
- Do you have enough information to come to a conclusion?
- At this stage, would you inform someone, and if yes, who?
“You’ve five minutes to decide. The Director is on his way to the White House to inform the president. He demands an update.”
I looked at John and Manuela and read the same uncertainty in their eyes. All three nations have drones. All three nations wanted the territory and its resources. But who would kill for it?
Stay tuned for Part III and the big reveal.
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