“But, then again, it could still be Timeris,” I said.
Before John had the time to object, Manuela chipped in, “You’re right. John, I get your argument. On the face of it, Nearland has more to lose. If we’ve seen it, so would the Timerians. Let’s suppose they orchestrated the attack knowing that suspicions are bound to fall on the stronger Nearland, which has more to lose. This would be the final blow against Nearlandian territorial aspirations.”
No one responded. A double bluff? It would certainly meet our expectations of a CIA simulation event.
“Hmm, is it enough, though, to inform policymakers,” asked John. “I agree that the whole idea is plausible — even likely. But, again, we can’t be 100 percent certain.”
“Maybe that’s on purpose,” said Manuela. “I think he’s purposefully fed us enough information to come with a plausible but not certain assessment. In a real-world situation, CIA analysts would be facing similar uncertainty. It’s about percentage rather than complete conviction.”
We’d have to agree with her. Maybe it was just that: a test to gauge if we’d the balls to stick with a decision even if weren’t completely sure about its accuracy.
Still, something was bugging me. Numbers, capabilities, blast radiuses, motives — numbers.
“But of course!” I rifled through the DIA report with the drones’ capabilities. “All right, operational ceiling: 9,500ft.”
Manuela, who was watching me with intense curiosity, caught my thinking and scrambled for the USAF radar intercept. “No activity below 8,000ft!” she said.
“Nearland!” shouted John.
The room looked towards our team.
“And why Nearland,” asked Michael. His face betrayed no emotion.
“Because of the altitude and the drones’ operational capabilities,” said Manuela. “According to the USAF intercept, the strike could have come only from a drone flying above 8,000ft. Nearland’s drone is the only one that could do that.”
The CIA recruiter didn’t respond. He just went to the table and picked up yet another document and handed it out. It was a SIGINT intercept. The NSA had intercepted a phone conversation between the Nearlandian Defence Minister and the country’s military Chief of Staffs. It read:
Why did you unleash the wolf without authorisation? Do you even understand the mess you’ve put me into? I’ve been lying to the Americans for the past nine hours, saying that’s not us. Heads will roll. Be sure of that.
Nearland.
“It was a rogue faction within the Nearlandian military,” said Michael. “They believed that their politicians were going soft. It might sound like fiction, but such a scenario wouldn’t be absurd in many of the countries that the Agency is operating in.”
I looked at the team. John seemed relieved, Manuela content.
Good call.
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