SOFREP Daily: Russian Missiles Kill Four in Kyiv Strike, Lithuania to Spend Big on Defense, Israel-Hamas Agree to Ceasefire

Good morning! It’s Saturday, January 18, 2025, and we’re here to bring you your weekend briefing on defense and global affairs. Let’s dive into today’s top stories.

Russian Missiles Kill Four, Injure Three in Kyiv Strike

A rare Russian missile attack on Kyiv left four people dead and three injured on Saturday, according to city officials.

The strike targeted the Shevchenkivsky district, damaging a building, breaking windows, and sparking a fire.

A metro station near the city center was also hit, forcing its closure.

At least four killed by Russia in Kyiv near the Lukianivska subway station.

At least one person died in the fire inside a destroyed van.

Russia just targeted a busy location in a crowded city in the morning. pic.twitter.com/v84OWtKw3y

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 18, 2025

Hours before the attack, Kyiv’s mayor Vitali Klitschko warned of a ballistic missile threat and confirmed the activation of air defenses.

This assault comes as Kyiv has ramped up aerial strikes on Russian military and energy targets, including recent hits on oil depots in Russia’s Saratov region.

Meanwhile, in Zaporizhzhia, Russian forces struck the city center, injuring two people and partially damaging an industrial facility.

🔴 Ten people were injured as a result of the Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia, local authorities reported.

Two others are considered missing.

📹: Suspilne pic.twitter.com/s1ZVQsb3Wq

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) January 18, 2025

France Condemns Russian Intimidation of Patrol Plane in Baltic Sea

A French Navy patrol plane had an alarming encounter this week over the Baltic Sea when Russian forces attempted to jam its systems and tracked it with an S-400 missile system radar, according to French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu on Friday.

The Atlantique-2 aircraft was conducting surveillance as part of NATO’s Baltic Sentry operation, which monitors suspected Russian interference with undersea power and communication cables.

🇫🇷🇷🇺Flight route of a French Navy Breguet Atlantique 2 patrol aircraft over the Baltic Sea on 15 September.

The French Ministry of Defense reports that a Russian S-400 air defense system crew in the Kaliningrad region took the aircraft under surveillance by a “fire control… pic.twitter.com/njFghPG8Go

— Intel Slava (@Intel_Slava) January 18, 2025

France called the “intimidation attempt” by Russia aggressive and unacceptable.

Lecornu emphasized that French forces would continue safeguarding freedom of navigation in international air and maritime spaces.

NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, noted that such incidents are increasingly widespread and serious, extending beyond Europe’s borders.

Lithuania to Spend Big on Defense: Tanks, Troops, and Deterrence

Lithuania is stepping up its defense game, announcing plans to allocate 5-6 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) to defense annually from 2026 to 2030.

President Gitanas Nausėda made the bold announcement Friday following a state security council meeting, emphasizing the need for stronger defense in light of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Currently spending 3-4 percent of GDP on defense, Lithuania aims to significantly boost its military capabilities, including developing a division with tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.

The country has already signed a deal for 44 German Leopard tanks and is negotiating to buy CV90s from Sweden.

Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys echoed the urgency, calling for NATO allies to follow Lithuania’s lead, saying, “The era of passive ‘sit-and-wait’ strategies is over.”

Lithuania commits to allocating between 5% and 6% of its GDP to defense from 2026 to 2030. The decision was made today at the State Defense Council. Difficult times require bold decisions& leadership. We call on our allies to follow this lead. The era of passive “sit-and-wait”…

— Kęstutis Budrys (@BudrysKestutis) January 17, 2025

With a population of just 2.8 million, Lithuania remains one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters, and leaders are urging readiness in case Russia’s aggression expands beyond Ukraine.

Colombia Suspends Talks After ELN Launches Deadly Attacks

Violence has erupted near Colombia’s border with Venezuela, leaving at least 39 people dead and prompting President Gustavo Petro to suspend peace talks with the National Liberation Army (ELN).

The recent clashes, rooted in territorial disputes over lucrative coca plantations, saw the ELN target rival FARC dissidents and the Clan del Golfo, a notorious paramilitary gang.

In one incident in North Santander, ELN fighters reportedly went “house to house” searching for targets, leaving dozens injured and families displaced.

The violence challenges Petro’s “Total Peace” initiative, a cornerstone of his presidency, as the ELN appears more focused on controlling territory than pursuing peace.

Videos capturing a march of the communist guerrilla ELN together with the local population in the northeast of the country, San Pablo, North Santander, went viral on Colombian social media. According to local reports, the participants bid farewell to the recently fallen ELN… pic.twitter.com/T6LPlPjdwb

— red. (@redstreamnet) April 29, 2024

Experts warn the group is escalating its military campaigns, complicating an already dire security situation. With ties to Venezuela and its controversial president, Nicolás Maduro, the ELN’s actions further strain regional diplomacy.

Philippine Navy Conducts Naval Exercises Near Tense Scarborough Shoal

The Philippine Navy conducted naval exercises on Friday in the South China Sea, asserting its sovereignty over contested waters also claimed by China.

The drills, described as “routine,” took place near the Scarborough Shoal (Bajo de Masinloc), a key flashpoint in the ongoing territorial disputes between Manila and Beijing.

The exercises involved some of the Navy’s largest vessels, including the frigate BRP Antonio Luna (FF-151) and patrol ships BRP Ramon Alcaraz (PS-16) and BRP Andres Bonifacio (PS-17).

A video released by the Navy showed crew members firing mounted machine guns and warships maneuvering dramatically.

WATCH: Several offshore combat ships of the Philippine Navy hold a unilateral exercise in the vicinity of Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal in the West Philippine Sea on Friday as China’s monster ship, China Coast Guard 5901, remains near Zamabales province.

The exercise invloves the… pic.twitter.com/nNkW0OGvvD

— Inquirer (@inquirerdotnet) January 17, 2025

The exercises come days after concerns were raised over increasing Chinese patrols near Philippine shores.

The Scarborough Shoal, seized by China in 2012, remains a hotspot for confrontations that could potentially escalate, pulling the US, Manila’s defense ally, into the fray.

The Philippine Navy emphasized that these operations are vital to protecting territorial integrity and improving operational proficiency.

Israel, Hamas Agree to Ceasefire: Hostages and Prisoners Set for Exchange

A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, brokered by Qatar, the United States, and Egypt, is set to take effect at 6:30 GMT on Sunday.

The deal pauses the 15-month conflict, which has caused immense devastation in Gaza, with over 46,000 people killed, mostly women and children, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry.

Israel claims to have killed over 17,000 Hamas fighters, though evidence has not been provided.

BREAKING: The Gaza ceasefire deal will come into effect tomorrow at 6.30am UK time.

Our international correspondent @AlexRossiSky has the latest from Jerusalem. https://t.co/RTb2A18E0t

📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube pic.twitter.com/96yA5wc2gN

— Sky News (@SkyNews) January 18, 2025

Under the truce, Hamas will release 33 hostages, including women, in phases over six weeks, starting with three on the first day.

In return, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including members of Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

However, high-profile prisoner Marwan Barghouti is not included in the list.

A second phase of negotiations will focus on the release of male soldiers and a lasting ceasefire.

Hezbollah Agrees to Ceasefire, UN Pledges Support for Lebanon’s Rebuild

The UN Secretary-General António Guterres pledged Saturday international support for Lebanon as it embarks on recovery efforts after a prolonged political stalemate and the devastating Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

Speaking in Beirut, Guterres expressed hope for Lebanon’s speedy recovery and praised the election of President Joseph Aoun and the naming of a new prime minister, marking a significant step toward stabilizing the nation’s institutions.

UN chief Antonio Guterres has called for an end to Israel’s “continued occupation” and “military operations” in southern Lebanon, after a November ceasefire to end fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.

🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/4B1Lbq3PQa pic.twitter.com/0LBUcl9ZcA

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) January 17, 2025

A US-brokered ceasefire has temporarily halted the 14-month war between Israel and Hezbollah, which claimed over 4,000 lives in Lebanon.

As part of the truce, Hezbollah has agreed to withdraw from the border area, leaving an armed presence to Lebanese troops and UN peacekeepers.

Guterres emphasized the importance of reconstruction and the deployment of the Lebanese army across the country.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem praised the ceasefire while accusing Israel of repeated violations since its implementation.

He warned against testing Hezbollah’s patience but stressed that the group’s weapons should be integrated into a national defense strategy through dialogue.

Calls from Hezbollah’s opponents for the group’s disarmament continue to spark internal tensions.

Sources: News Agencies