Evening Brief: Russia Says Forces Surround Ukraine Cities, Israel Restores Gaza Ceasefire, Myanmar Rebels Sign China-Brokered Truce

  CBO Says Ongoing Government Shutdown Could Cost US Economy Up to $14 Billion The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned Wednesday that the ongoing federal government shutdown could cost the US economy between $7 billion and $14 billion, cutting as much as two percent from fourth-quarter GDP. The shutdown, now in its 29th day, stems from stalled negotiations between Senate Republicans, who want a short-term funding measure through November 21, and Democrats, who seek an agreement to extend health insurance tax credits under the Affordable Care Act. About 750,000 federal workers have been furloughed since funding lapsed on October 1, with some essential personnel working without pay. The federal government shutdown has already cost the US economy at least $18 billion this year, a figure that “will intensify” in the weeks to come, according to the Congressional Budget Office https://t.co/TNnbMXS445 — Bloomberg (@business) October 29, 2025 CBO Director Phillip Swagel said most lost output would be recovered once operations resume, but $7-14 billion would be permanently lost if the shutdown lasts through late November.   White House Nominates Admiral Kevin Lunday to Lead US Coast Guard The White House has formally nominated Admiral Kevin Lunday as the next commandant of the US Coast Guard, submitting the nomination to the Senate last week along with Vice Admiral Thomas Allan for vice commandant. Lunday has served as acting commandant since January 21, following Admiral Linda Fagan’s removal, and previously led the Coast Guard’s Atlantic Area and Cyber Command. Allan, acting vice commandant since July, has held multiple senior operational and support roles. The nominations, along with 10 others, were sent to the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation. White House Nominates Lunday to Lead Coast Guard, Other Senior Leaders Tapped for New Roles — USNI Newshttps://t.co/X1cG1Lo9MK pic.twitter.com/eOqI0Ytb3c — U.S. Naval Institute (@NavalInstitute) October 29, 2025 Additional nominees include Rear Admiral Douglas Schofield for chief of staff, Vice Admiral Nathan Moore for deputy commandant of operations, and Rear Admiral Jo-Ann Burdian and Rear Admiral Joseph Buzzella Jr. for promotion to vice admiral, alongside seven rear admiral promotions.   Congressional Defense Leaders Slam Pentagon Plan to Cut US Troop Presence in Romania House Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers and Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker criticized the Pentagon’s decision to end the rotational deployment of a US Army brigade in Romania, calling it unilateral and harmful to deterrence against Russia. The 101st Airborne Division’s 2nd Brigade will not be replaced when its nine-month mission ends, as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth shifts focus toward domestic security and competition with China. Rogers and Wicker said the move violates congressional oversight requirements and undermines US commitments to NATO allies. They warned the drawdown could embolden Russia, noting recent airspace incursions over Romania. 🪖 The US will reduce its presence in some eastern flank countries, including Romania ➡️ The move follows a report that the US considers withdrawing around half of the troops in Eastern Europe https://t.co/gJe4hB1o4p pic.twitter.com/t7NJxyZM0b — Anadolu English (@anadoluagency) October 29, 2025 The lawmakers plan to seek guarantees that American armored brigades in Poland and other Eastern European deployments will remain intact. Romania’s defense ministry said about 1,000 US troops will stay, framing the downsizing as part of the White House’s new strategic priorities.   Justice Department Deploys Military Attorneys as Temporary Immigration Judges The Justice Department announced the appointment of nearly two dozen military attorneys as temporary immigration judges to address a growing backlog in immigration courts. The move follows a Pentagon decision in September approving up to 600 military lawyers to assist in the system, part of President Donald Trump’s effort to expand deportations. The 36 new judges—11 permanent and 25 temporary—include 22 with military experience, at least 18 of whom are currently serving. They have been assigned to courts in 12 states, including California, Texas, and New York. To enable the appointments, the Executive Office of Immigration Review revised job qualifications to no longer require prior immigration law experience. Nearly two dozen military attorneys were appointed as temporary immigration judges and will begin hearing cases in federal courtrooms across the country immediately.https://t.co/YkwV3n68Fj — Stars and Stripes (@starsandstripes) October 29, 2025 The initiative adds to broader military involvement in immigration enforcement, including border patrol support and aid at detention facilities.   Hurricane Melissa Leaves Trail of Death and Destruction Across the Caribbean Hurricane Melissa, one of the strongest Atlantic storms on record, killed dozens and caused widespread destruction across Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba after making landfall Tuesday as a Category 5 storm with winds of 185 mph (295 kph). In Haiti, authorities reported 23 dead and 13 missing, mostly from flooding in the southern town of Petit-Goâve. Cuba faced collapsed buildings, blocked roads, and widespread power outages, with 735,000 people in shelters. In Jamaica, more than 25,000 residents took refuge as 77 percent of the island lost power. Landslides cut off key routes, and local officials described the damage as catastrophic. Hurricane Melissa left dozens dead and widespread destruction across Cuba, Jamaica and Haiti on Wednesday, knocking out power and forcing residents from their homes in inundated towns. pic.twitter.com/aVi6GuUqBM — The Associated Press (@AP) October 29, 2025 Jamaica’s Prime Minister Andrew Holness said rescue and recovery operations were underway, while the US pledged support with response teams. By Wednesday, Melissa had weakened to a Category 2 hurricane as it moved toward the Bahamas, where evacuations were underway ahead of expected storm surges and heavy winds.   Putin Claims Russian Forces Encircled Key Ukrainian Cities, Kyiv Denies Reports Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that Russian troops had surrounded Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk and Kupiansk, two key cities in eastern and northeastern Ukraine, and offered safe passage for their surrender. Situation in the Special Military Operation is developing favorably to us — Putin to Russian soldiers ‘Your comrades on all sections of the front are pushing forward’ ‘In Kupiansk and Krasnoarmeysk, they encircled the enemy’ https://t.co/Y9SBmgjKWV pic.twitter.com/FnVvaijPw0 — RT (@RT_com) October 29, 2025 Ukrainian military officials rejected the claim, calling it false and saying fighting continues with conditions “hard but under control.” Russia has intensified its offensive across the 1,000-kilometer (621-mile) front line, deploying thousands of troops near Pokrovsk, where limited Russian infiltration was confirmed. Independent analysts, including the Institute for the Study of War, said Russia has advanced near Pokrovsk but does not control the city. NEW: Russian forces recently advanced in southeastern Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk), but these advances are unlikely to cause an immediate collapse of the Ukrainian pocket in the Pokrovsk direction. Other Key Takeaways: Russian tactics in Pokrovsk have entrapped civilians… pic.twitter.com/Xn5nmMOuia — Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) October 29, 2025 The claims come as Putin pushes diplomatic efforts to portray Ukraine’s resistance as futile and highlight Russia’s military strength. Meanwhile, Ukraine launched drone and missile strikes on Russian infrastructure, while Russia continued attacks on Ukraine’s power grid, injuring at least 13 people and disrupting civilian services.   UN Watchdog Reports Renewed Movement at Iran Nuclear Sites but No Active Enrichment The head of the UN nuclear watchdog said Wednesday that Iran is not currently enriching uranium but that inspectors have detected renewed movement at several nuclear sites. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi told The Associated Press that Iran’s stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium remains in the country, enough to build up to 10 nuclear weapons if weaponized, though there is no evidence of such activity. Grossi said inspectors lack full access to confirm the material’s status and have been relying on satellite imagery. The Iran deal is over. Strikes forced a nuclear slowdown, but Iran is ramping up construction at the secretive Pickaxe Mountain facility while banning IAEA access, pushing its program into a new, dangerous era. See the full satellite imagery analysis: https://t.co/rpJUwcXTW3 pic.twitter.com/f94N31P114 — CSIS (@CSIS) October 27, 2025 The renewed activity follows the US and Israeli strikes during the June war that damaged Iran’s Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan facilities. Despite a recent Cairo agreement aimed at restoring IAEA cooperation, implementation has stalled amid rising tensions and reimposed UN sanctions. Grossi said inspectors are back in Iran but face limited cooperation, describing the situation as neither full compliance nor total obstruction.   Israel Restores Gaza Ceasefire After Deadly Airstrikes Kill 104, Including Dozens of Women and Children Israel’s military reinstated the Gaza ceasefire Wednesday after overnight airstrikes killed 104 people, including 66 women and children, in what local officials called the deadliest attack since the truce began on October 10. Israel said the strikes targeted Hamas positions and commanders in response to the killing of an Israeli soldier in Rafah and Hamas’ alleged failure to return hostage remains. Hamas denied involvement in the shooting and accused Israel of violating the ceasefire. The bombardment, which hit tent camps and residential areas, drew sharp criticism and renewed US pressure to preserve the fragile truce. The Israeli military says it returned to the ceasefire in line with instructions from the political leadership, but remains ready to attack Gaza again if necessary. 🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/UUP84rPK7E pic.twitter.com/XLGva5kEvi — Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) October 29, 2025 US President Donald Trump defended Israel’s response but said he believed the ceasefire would hold. Qatar, a key mediator, confirmed a ceasefire violation “by the Palestinian party” but expressed frustration over the escalation. Gaza’s Health Ministry said over 68,500 people have been killed since the war began in 2023, while Israel attributed civilian casualties to Hamas using human shields.   Myanmar Rebel Group Signs China-Brokered Ceasefire with Military Ahead of Elections The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), a major ethnic rebel group in Myanmar, has signed a ceasefire with the country’s military following China-mediated talks in Kunming, marking a pause in months of fighting near the Chinese border. The deal, effective Wednesday, allows Myanmar’s army to regain key towns while the TNLA agrees to withdraw from additional areas, including the ruby-mining hub of Mogok. In return, the military pledged to halt ground offensives and airstrikes. The TNLA said Wednesday it inked a ceasefire with the junta at China-brokered peace talks in Kunming on Tuesday. It agreed to return control of Mogoke in Mandalay and Mongmit, Shan State. The junta agreed to stop bombing TNLA territory. Photo: AFP #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar pic.twitter.com/gULHlNky0r — The Irrawaddy (Eng) (@IrrawaddyNews) October 29, 2025 The ceasefire strengthens the military government’s position ahead of December elections widely viewed as illegitimate. China, Myanmar’s main foreign ally, pushed for the deal to stabilize its border region. The TNLA, part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance fighting for autonomy, had captured several towns since last year but has lost ground after a series of China-brokered truces earlier in 2024.   Sources: News Agencies