Expert Analysis

The South Caucasus “Smaller Wars” Have the Potential To Become a Regional Conflict While the World Remains Silent

BY Julian McBride

Today. The international community has a critical decision that could affect the world’s future regarding Armenia and Azerbaijan. The world can ignore a ‘miniscule’ conflict or slowly watch it grow into a regional war, as with many prior wars.

Ilham Aliyev and Tayyip Erdogan in Nakhichevan via TimesIn

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which is increasingly becoming tense as reports of ethnic cleansing occur, has far-reaching repercussions in the South Caucasus. Tensions remain against the backdrop of Azerbaijan‘s military campaigns to retake the historical Karabakh region.

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Azerbaijan is bolstered with military backing from Turkey, Israel, and Pakistan while using gas sales as a soft power to conduct further ambitions. At the same time, Armenia has seemingly become abandoned by the international community, as their only faithful “ally” in Russia has acted as anything but a friendly nation.

Threats of an Attack on Syunik Province

The Karabakh region is not the only target on the radar of Baku, but a complete connection with Nakhichevan, another province of Azerbaijan. According to representatives from both Baku and Moscow, Armenia agreed to a “Zangezur corridor” through Syunik province, while Yerevan disputes the agreement.

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Feeling impatient and overly aggressive, Azerbaijan has built up military forces near the Armenian border, with Turkish ministers making statements supporting Baku. An attack on Syunik would be valuable for Azerbaijan, as Armenian-Russian relations are at an all-time low—especially as Putin has looked to Aliyev and Erdogan to help evade sanctions.

Ilham Aliyev
Azerbaijan’s longtime autocrat Ilham Aliyev via Reuters

How a Potential Invasion of Syunik Could Become Regional

Compared to Azerbaijan’s multiple military campaigns in Karabakh, a potential attack on Armenia has regional repercussions outside the South Caucasus. Though an attack on Armenia proper would constitute a response from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the defensive alliance already showed how toothless it was during Azerbaijan’s attacks on Armenia in 2022–a ceasefire that the United States had to mend.

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Despite Armenia’s fading relations with Russia, in which the latter also finds itself in a growingly unsuccessful war, Iran, which neighbors Armenia, could potentially hold the cards if a new war breaks out.

Iran has a historical trade route through Southern Armenia that has spanned thousands of years. Through various Armenian and Persian empires and dynasties, their direct trade route remained unaffected until direct threats from both Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Iran considers an attack on Southern Armenia, which would cut off their last trade route with a neighbor that isn’t hostile to them, a red line—and with this red line, Israel comes into play.

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The Domino Effect on the Middle East and NATO

Arguably, Israel’s most significant reason for arming Azerbaijan, despite the matter’s genocidal intentions, comes due to Baku’s proximity to Iran. Akin to how the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps arms Hezbollah, Hamas, and other groups to attack Israel, the Israeli government has played a reverse Uno card on the Mullahs, albeit at the expense of Armenia.

A domino effect could ensue if Azerbaijan attacks Armenia and Iran goes through with its ‘red line.’ Not only would Azerbaijan and Armenia be at war, but Iran would also become directly involved.

Any Iranian intervention could significantly damage Azerbaijan’s infrastructure as Tehran has nearly perfected its deadly ballistic missile arsenal. Nevertheless, any Iranian attack on Azerbaijan would also favor Baku.

Azerbaijan currently holds a mutual defense pact with Turkey and an undisclosed military cooperation with Israel. Any attack on Baku’s territory would invoke a military response from either nation.

Regional repercussions would occur in a hypothetical war that drags Iran, Turkey, and Israel. If the IRGC were to launch ballistic missiles at Azerbaijan’s pipelines that connect to Turkey, the global market would feel the pinch. If Turkey were to be attacked first, they could invoke Article 4 or 5 of the NATO charter, drawing another 30-plus member states into the conflict.

President Erdogan of Turkey via National Interest

Israel may see an opportunity to weaken Iran and conduct strikes against its nuclear program. Likewise, Iran could also target sites in Azerbaijan that most likely hold Israeli military personnel and advisors that their intelligence services have gathered.

Israel and Iran becoming drawn into the conflict would also bring the war directly to Israel’s doorstep. Paramilitary organizations, such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and other Iranian-backed Shiite militias in Syria or Yemen, could target Israel or Israeli cargo ships with their vast arsenal of weaponry. Iranian-backed militias could also target US forces, diplomatic offices, and companies outside the Middle East as America remains Israel’s chief backer.

Russian hybrid warfare also comes into play, as Moscow will benefit from a great wartime-ruined Armenia, in which a pro-Russian leader could potentially be propped into power as Armenians would be forced to submit under the Russian dominion again if no one steps up to support the latter.

Diplomatic Relations and Soft Power Comes into Play

Now or never, American deterrence and a peacekeeping presence are needed in a region where Armenians have been left to die by their Russian “allies” to the brutality of two of the worst autocrats on Earth today. Compared to the inept posture of the Russian peacekeeper, the United States has a global force projection power to respond to any humanitarian crisis and the means of preventing a large-scale war. Not only can the US stop an explosive situation brewing in the region, but another emerging superpower can as well—India.

India’s emerging military and economic power has become part of the forefront of geopolitics. New Delhi has invested heavily in Armenia and a proposed economic maritime trade route from India directly to Greece, another historical Armenian ally.

Turkey has grown a rivalry with India and has used Pakistan as a proxy to combat the nation. India has countered Turkey by aligning with Greece, Cyprus, and Armenia to counter the pan-Turkish threat.

Desperately wanting to counter India’s new trade route, Turkey and Azerbaijan will push to have the “Zangezur corridor” implemented through Armenia as quickly as possible before India and Greece connect. These developments in the South Caucasus could convince India to reassess its neutrality policies if its economic ambitions and regional allies are threatened—primarily as Washington and New Delhi have grown closer.

Today, the international community has a critical decision that could affect the world’s future regarding Armenia and Azerbaijan. The world can ignore a ‘minuscule’ conflict or slowly watch it grow into a regional war, as with many prior wars.

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