The recent collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime marks a pivotal moment in Syria’s protracted civil war, introducing both opportunities and challenges for the region and international stakeholders, particularly the United States.

Assad’s Downfall and Its Implications

After nearly 24 years in power, President Bashar al-Assad’s regime crumbled under the pressure of rebel forces, culminating in the capture of Damascus on December 8, 2024. Assad reportedly fled to Moscow, where he has been granted asylum. President Joe Biden characterized this development as a “fundamental act of justice” but also acknowledged the inherent “risk and uncertainty” it brings to the Middle East.

Assad and putin
Assad and Putin.

The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has sent shockwaves through the Middle East and beyond, bringing nearly 14 years of brutal civil war to a dramatic end. Assad, who ruled with support from Russia and Iran, was toppled in a swift 12-day offensive led by rebel groups, primarily Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The collapse has not only altered the power balance in Syria but also reshaped the dynamics of the region in significant ways.

The fall of Assad marks a major shift in regional power. It deals a blow to Iran and Russia, both of which had heavily invested in propping up Assad’s regime. Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” which relies on Syria as a strategic link to Hezbollah in Lebanon, has been severely weakened. Without Assad, Iran’s ability to threaten Israel from Syrian soil is dramatically reduced. Meanwhile, Russia has suffered a substantial setback as it loses key military bases and its foothold in the Middle East, limiting its ability to project power in the region.

However, the swift rise of HTS, a group with a history of ties to al-Qaeda, raises serious concerns about the future governance of Syria. While HTS claims to have severed its links to extremist networks, their track record has left the international community wary. The group’s ascent could pave the way for instability or even the resurgence of terrorism in a country already devastated by conflict.

For the United States, Assad’s fall presents a strategic opportunity. The shift in regional dynamics provides a chance to counter the influence of both Iran and Russia, long-time adversaries in the Middle East. By engaging cautiously with Syria’s new power players, the U.S. could gain leverage to promote stability and curb extremist threats. However, this must be balanced with the potential risks of dealing with groups like HTS, whose long-term intentions remain uncertain.

On a humanitarian level, Assad’s removal offers hope to millions of Syrians who endured his oppressive rule. Yet, the future remains unclear. After years of war, countless Syrians remain displaced, and the country’s infrastructure is in ruins. The international community faces the challenge of addressing these pressing issues while navigating the new political landscape.

The Ascendancy of Rebel Forces

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has emerged as the dominant force in Syria after the sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. This Islamist group, once an affiliate of Al-Qaeda, has transformed itself over the years and is now at the center of Syria’s post-Assad reality. Understanding how HTS rose to power sheds light on the challenges and uncertainties facing the country.

HTS has a complicated history. It was originally formed in 2011 as Jabhat al-Nusra, a direct branch of Al-Qaeda. But in 2016, its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, made a bold move—he severed ties with Al-Qaeda and rebranded the group as HTS. The rebranding wasn’t just cosmetic; it marked a shift in strategy. While still rooted in Islamist principles, HTS turned its focus inward, aiming to establish fundamentalist Islamic rule in Syria instead of pursuing global jihad. This ideological pivot was part of an effort to gain broader legitimacy both inside Syria and on the world stage.

HTS consolidated its base of power in Idlib, a province in northwestern Syria, where it has effectively acted as the local administration since 2017. Over the years, it has built a reputation for military prowess and strategic planning. That reputation was on full display during its recent blitzkrieg offensive against the Assad regime. In less than two weeks, HTS and its allies captured major cities, including Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, before finally taking Damascus. The speed and precision of this offensive shocked observers and underscored the group’s ability to execute complex military campaigns.

One of the key reasons for HTS’s success was its ability to work with other factions. During the offensive, HTS led a coalition that included the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). This alliance demonstrated the group’s willingness to collaborate when it suits its goals, even if it means partnering with factions that don’t fully align with its ideology. This pragmatism could help HTS maintain its grip on power, at least in the short term.

Despite its efforts to rebrand and moderate its image, HTS remains a deeply controversial organization. It’s still officially designated as a terrorist group by the United Nations, the United States, Turkey, and other countries.

However, the group’s recent actions align with some regional interests, particularly Turkey’s long-standing goal of ousting Assad. Whether this alignment leads to a shift in international attitudes toward HTS remains to be seen, but the group’s track record continues to raise red flags.

HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Julani has been positioning himself as a credible leader of a post-Assad Syria for years. Following the capture of Damascus, he delivered a victory speech at the historic Umayyad Mosque, calling for unity and rejecting foreign influence. While these words might appeal to Syrians desperate for peace and stability, they don’t erase the group’s hardline ideology or its history of human rights abuses.

The rise of HTS presents a complex mix of possibilities and challenges for Syria’s future. On the one hand, the group’s military success and attempts at governance signal a potential path forward for a country that has been torn apart by war. On the other hand, its fundamentalist views and troubling past raise serious questions about its ability to provide inclusive and stable leadership. The world will be watching closely as HTS tries to navigate its new role as the dominant force in Syria, but for now, the path ahead looks anything but clear.

U.S. Response to the Power Vacuum

The United States continues to maintain a significant military presence in Syria, with around 900 troops stationed in the northeastern part of the country. These forces are primarily focused on working alongside the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to combat ISIS. Even as Syria’s political landscape shifts dramatically with the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, the U.S. remains steadfast in its commitment to defeating ISIS and ensuring regional stability.

In response to the sudden fall of Assad, the U.S. military launched a series of extensive airstrikes against ISIS targets in central Syria on December 8, 2024. These airstrikes showcased the full might of U.S. Air Force assets, including B-52 bombers, F-15 fighters, and A-10 attack aircraft. The operation targeted over 75 locations linked to ISIS, including leaders, operatives, and training camps. In total, approximately 140 munitions were deployed during the mission. The primary goal was clear: to prevent ISIS from exploiting the power vacuum created by Assad’s downfall while also disrupting and degrading the group’s operational capabilities.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has been vocal about its ongoing efforts to keep ISIS in check.

General Michael Erik Kurilla, the head of CENTCOM, issued a strong warning to any organizations in Syria, making it clear that those who partner with or support ISIS would be held accountable.

The message underscores the U.S.’s determination to prevent ISIS from reconstituting itself during this dynamic period in Syria’s history.

The Biden administration has laid out a comprehensive approach to the evolving situation in Syria. This strategy involves engaging with various Syrian groups to support a transition toward an independent, sovereign government. At the same time, the U.S. is providing humanitarian assistance to help rebuild the country after years of devastation. Additionally, Washington has pledged to support neighboring nations such as Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, and Israel, recognizing the broader regional impact of Syria’s instability.

While the U.S. is focused on humanitarian aid and political engagement, the mission against ISIS remains a top priority. Maintaining stability in eastern Syria is critical to ensuring that ISIS does not regain a foothold in the region. The combination of military operations and diplomatic efforts reflects a balanced approach to navigating the complexities of post-Assad Syria.

As the situation continues to unfold, the United States remains committed to addressing both the immediate threats posed by ISIS and the long-term challenges of rebuilding a fractured Syria. This dual focus underscores the importance of maintaining a strong presence and clear strategy during a period of significant change in the region.

Navigating Relations with Rebel Leadership

The U.S. faces a complex challenge in engaging with the new power brokers in Syria. While HTS has played a significant role in toppling Assad, its past affiliations with terrorist organizations necessitate cautious diplomacy. President Biden noted that although some rebel groups are “saying the right things now,” their actions will be closely monitored to assess their commitment to human rights and counterterrorism.

Regional Dynamics and International Reactions

The fall of Assad’s regime has significant implications for regional actors. Russia, a staunch ally of Assad, facilitated his asylum, reflecting its strategic interests in Syria. Iran and Hezbollah, also Assad supporters, face a recalibration of their positions in the region. Israel has conducted airstrikes targeting Iranian assets in Syria, aiming to prevent the transfer of advanced weaponry to Hezbollah.

Humanitarian Concerns and the Path Forward

The conflict’s latest developments have exacerbated humanitarian challenges, with thousands displaced amid ongoing violence. The U.S. has pledged to work with international partners to provide aid and support a political transition aligned with UN Security Council Resolution 2254, which calls for a Syrian-led process toward free and fair elections.

Looking Ahead

The demise of Assad’s regime offers a potential turning point for Syria, but it also ushers in a period of uncertainty. The United States remains committed to combating ISIS and supporting a stable, inclusive political transition. However, the complexities of engaging with former adversaries and navigating regional dynamics underscore the intricate path ahead in fostering lasting peace in Syria.