With the current front page news of Assad’s use of Sarin and a potential US military response, there’s been an Everest mountain’s worth of discussion over why we shouldn’t do anything.  Conspicuously absent is an honest questioning of the reasons to not intervene, well-explained reasons to intervene and analysis of the results of inaction. SOFREP is one of the few places you’ll find it.

The litany of common reasons and excuses not to intervene in Syria: AQ Islamists did it or we can’t be sure; The rebels are all Islamist.  We’d be helping AQ; We can’t separate the secularists; Not our Fight; Fear of Escalation; Don’t trust WH leadership; AQ/Islamists did it, or we can’t be sure.

AQ Islamists did it or we can’t be sure

MANY ascribe to the “rebels could have done it” school of thought without, or contrary to, the evidence.  Chem warfare isn’t child’s play.  IF the rebels did this it would be the most successful use of chemical weapons by a non-state actor in known world history.  The most successful use of chem was by Japanese terrorists employing Sarin in five subway locations killing 13. The Syria incident killed hundreds.  If true, it’s REALLY historic and a huge ante by potential terrorist groups.

For AQ/Islamists to have pulled this off, one must believe a complicated list of assumptions:

1. Assume there is undiscovered evidence that rebels used chem in this attack.

2. Assume that, for the first time, rebels launched up to 12 missiles in a tight cluster to impact over 3000 people. Examples of rebels ever launching a conventional artillery/rocket barrage with the same accuracy?

3. Assume rebels were able to procure/build, load and employ chemical munitions with no evidence they have ever done so before, have the technical expertise to do so and kept that capability secret from every intelligence agency in the world.

4. Assume the rebels coincidentally had chemical munitions in the exact place Assad forces were conducting an offensive, or that they have such an effective intelligence capability that they were able to penetrate Assad’s OPSEC, communicate that intel to the select rebels that had this very unique never-before demonstrated chem capability, and who also had the ability to move into place to employ it simultaneously with Assad rocket/artillery strikes.