There are very few countries left, maybe Xi in China, where one person can decide the fate of millions and Putin is one of them. He is perhaps (for the time being), one of the most powerful leaders in modern history.
Putin made a terrible miscalculation with regards to Ukraine’s desire and fighting spirit to maintain its independence, and the global reaction to a war which many see as pure vanity regardless of his narrative around an encroaching NATO. I personally think this was a vanity play for Putin. He must have thought Ukraine would fall like Crimea did, and few countries would care outside of the usual rhetoric.
A couple of important points to acknowledge.
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There are very few countries left, maybe Xi in China, where one person can decide the fate of millions and Putin is one of them. He is perhaps (for the time being), one of the most powerful leaders in modern history.
Putin made a terrible miscalculation with regards to Ukraine’s desire and fighting spirit to maintain its independence, and the global reaction to a war which many see as pure vanity regardless of his narrative around an encroaching NATO. I personally think this was a vanity play for Putin. He must have thought Ukraine would fall like Crimea did, and few countries would care outside of the usual rhetoric.
A couple of important points to acknowledge.
When will Putin’s war end?
How will it end?
My thoughts.
An invading force needing a higher ratio of troops to a defending country, and this will likely drive Putin to double down on his troop call up this winter.
Since there has been no significant attempt by the west to broker peace China will likely see this as an opening and opportunity to assert itself as a global super power and lead negotiations that end the war.
China has its own economic issues, but they must see that Putin’s war has gone off the rails and I don’t think China wants WWIII with some of its largest trading partners in America and Europe.
What keeps me up at night?
Nuclear weapons employment and the potential of WWIII.
If you want to see the terribleness of nuclear war look at these photos.
(Photo: Japanese Nuclear survivor)
It’s disturbing how many people continue to underestimate Putin’s commitment to his Nationalistic narrative that pits Russia against NATO at all costs.
If we don’t give Putin a face-saving off-ramp, we could very well see the employment of nuclear weapons and the capital of Kyiv would be a likely target.
Peace through strength should be pursued aggressively.
If I was President for a day, I’d be on Air Force One to China to build a coalition with the Chinese (an important trade partner to both America and Russia) to pressure Russia into ending a war that is winless for Putin at this point.
This came come with our own US concessions around Taiwan. Worth it? It means avoiding WWIII I’d say yes.
I think the war continues through the winter and the window for a resolution opens from February to next fall. I predict the war will drag on another 4-36 months.
Why the long tail?
It very well may take the next incoming US President to end it, current leadership under Biden’s administration has been underwhelming.
In today’s interconnected world the people DO wield an incredibly big stick if we choose to use it. Ask yourself this? Are you doing all you can to avoid a nuclear war?
I’ll leave you with this quote to ponder.
“The greatest victory is that which requires no battle.”, Sun Tzu
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