Everyone I know with large business interests is hedging against a failed Russian state.

The hedge looks like this, citizenship or the equivalent elsewhere. Family outside of Russia, ownership outside of Russia, in case Putin reinstates some sort of draft that seeks to scoop up fighting-age males to plus up the invading force. There are some rumors that Putin will order a general mobilization of the population on the occasion of their May 9th celebration of beating the Nazis.

Conscription is a red line for many and will surely result in further Russian brain drain. This I’ve heard from the Russians I’ve spoken to confidentially from the business community.

Several Confidential Russian sources revealed the following to SOFREP:

“30% of my friends in the business community have already left Russia, and more will go if Putin decides to conscript adult males.”

“Outside of the older generation of Russians, nobody under 50 wants this war or to die fighting in Ukraine. There is no fighting spirit in Russia like we see in Ukraine’s population.”

Russian rubles
Russian rubles (Petar Milošević, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)

“The ruble declining was actually good for Russian business owners because loans in ruble were paid off in US dollars.”

“While extremely tough to deal with, most can move money around the sanctions with offshore bank accounts in Georgia, Turkey, and elsewhere, then convert to dollars. If you are personally named in the sanctions, this is a major problem.”