Some reports that the whole Ring Road around Moscow was blocked off yesterday from civilian traffic for the use of the military, this resident of Moscow, which is some 380 miles from Kharkiv. This screencap of video shows part of a large military leaving the city for perhaps Izyum, which would be a waste since the Russians abandoned the city in their withdrawal. They have also abandoned Kupiansk which in our last sitrep we stated would leave Russian forces with their backs to the Oskil River with the bridges already destroyed behind them.

a long line of Ambulances was filmed arriving in Kyiv yesterday.  Pro-Russian sources crowed that this was an indication of the heavy casualties the Ukrainians are taking.  To be sure, their casualties are significant.  This is not a war in the desert, with sparse cover for large formations of infantry and tanks.  It is a war being fought on terrain which is heavily wooded and dotted with villages, towns and cities. Unlike the casualties Ukraine took while holding the Russians and planning this offensive just to keep ground, these losses are incurred while taking ground, with Russian forces appearing to melt in front of them.

This image may tell another story though. The Ukrainians are able to evacuate their casualties and have the logistics in place to do so. All through this war, we have seen credible reports(often from Russian soldiers themselves) saying that their wounded are not being evacuated or received substandard treatment, or in some cases are being shot by their own officers when they are judged too far gone to save.

Kyiv is a long way from the front lines, we doubt these casualties were evacuated by ground transportation.  They were probably airlifted by helicopter there and are the most seriously wounded, needing the most extensive care.

We thought it might be useful to recall that quite a few military experts grossly overestimated the tactical ability and lethality of the Russian army before the war. This infected our own intelligence community and the Pentagon which did not give Ukraine more than about a week of resistance before it collapsed. We see this stuff and wonder if listening to the established “experts” didn’t make things worse for Ukraine in terms of not arming it sooner?  Had the US, the EU, and NATO armed Ukraine to the teeth in December 2001 instead of in February after the invasion had already begun, a lot of Ukrainian lives would not have been lost.  There may not have even been a war.

When this is all over and the costs in blood and treasure are counted, there will be some questions needing to be asked about how we managed to over-estimate Russia’s abilities while at the same time grossly underestimating Ukraine’s. This was after we spent years training Ukraine’s military too.

Back on December 7th 2021, ancient history now, we opined that the threat of sanctions would not deter Putin from invading further into Ukraine but weapons would.