Historically Indifferent to the South Caucasus, How Should America React If Armenia is Invaded?

The South Caucasus, sometimes overlooked, is a region where ‘low-level’ conflicts have the possibility of becoming regional or even potentially global if the geopolitical quagmires are left unchecked. Ongoing tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan correlate to a once low-level conflict that can now go regional as significant world players are fully invested in the current tensions.

One such player now growingly invested and concerned with a potential regional conflict is the United States, which, for years, relatively stood idly while playing cavalier between Yerevan and Baku.

Armenian-Azerbaijani Tensions

Expecting that longtime Azerbaijani autocrat Ilham Aliyev would obey international law and come to a peaceful settlement after his 2020 victory, the dictator instead has constantly provoked war. First in 2022 in Armenia proper and then in 2023 with a globally condemned blockade and military and military operation that resulted in the ethnic cleansing of the Karabakh Armenians.

Initially thinking Aliyev would be a rational actor and an “alternative” Russian energy, the West effectively left Armenia out to dry and placated another dictator with territorial ambitions akin to Vladimir Putin. Instead, Aliyev revealed his true intentions of wanting to force Armenians to live under his regime’s submission—the same government repressing their citizens.

The State Department has expressed concerns about another potential war as Azerbaijan, even though regaining the Karabakh region, still eyes territory in Southern Armenia.

Minimal but Increasing Support for Armenia

Despite the American bureaucracy that led to lukewarm policies in the South Caucasus, other countries have started supporting Armenia.

Despite being relatively small, Lithuania is giving a significant diplomatic and technological boost to Armenia in the European Union, which is going through internal problems at a time when the bloc should be united. Vilnius recommended that “all options” should be on the table if further aggression occurs against Armenia, and they were one of the first Western countries to immediately condemn Azerbaijan’s blockade of the Lachin Corridor in December 2022.

The French Senate is currently preparing a major arms package for Armenia as France already has a geopolitical conflict with Turkey and Russia, in which the latter two are placating Aliyev’s aggression for sanctions evasion. France’s political alignment with Armenia could help persuade US foreign policy to do the same as both nations historically backed each other’s global policies.

India is another country that has grown its defense ties with Armenia, allocating much-needed artillery as Yerevan went through decades of neglect towards their armed forces.

Why the West Should Back Armenia

Azerbaijan is growing increasingly hostile to the West and closer to the Russian-led axis in a world of ever-changing geopolitical realignment. Moscow’s Lukoil has a significant stake in Azerbaijani gas, giving Putin a potential avenue to evade sanctions through Baku.

One of Aliyev’s principal backers through his aggression is President Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, who also has allowed his country to become a hub of Russian money laundering and sanctions evasion.

Armenia has rescinded all territorial ambitions on Azerbaijan, and Yerevan has refused to sign a CSTO agreement and cooperation, as the Russian-led organization has left the former out to dry numerous times. In the aftermath of Azerbaijan’s 2023 September military campaign, Armenia has attended all peace and rapprochement internationally sponsored conferences while Azerbaijan has boycotted all of them, citing “Western bias” due to being called out on their aggressive posture.

Azerbaijan continues to disobey international law while aligning with Russia. In contrast, Armenia’s political rapprochement shows the world that, like Putin, you cannot appease a tyrant, as when you give them an inch, they will always take a mile.

Contingency Options for the US if Armenia is Invaded

The world is facing a renewed push by autocrats who carry century-old grudges and want to upend international law through illegal annexations. Current illegal annexations are ongoing with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and other planned annexations include China over Taiwan, Turkey over the occupied north of Cyprus, and Venezuela’s ambitions over Guyana.

Baku has accused Yerevan of claiming their sovereign territory for decades but likewise is eyeing the geography of their neighbor that could destabilize the South Caucasus. In lieu of said threats, the United States can maintain a deterrence threshold and keep the status quo.

More draconian sanctions against the Aliyev regime should be on the table, especially if Baku starts a war for imperialist aggression akin to Moscow’s ambitions against Ukraine. Pressure on Tayyip Erdogan and the persuasion of Benjamin Netanyahu to detach away from an increasingly unreliable partner should also be a focus of the State Department.

Though Armenia remains in a hostile military alliance, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, more joint American-Armenian military exercises, and partnerships in the economic and technological sector would make an immense difference as other major international players would invest in the country.

The United States can use various methods of deterrence and diplomacy to mediate regional tensions in the South Caucasus between Armenia and Azerbaijan. With allies becoming skeptical of Washington’s commitment to global stabilization, DC has a chance to remedy a potential future war.