Prelude
Following their disastrous summer offensive of June – September 2023, Ukraine was on the back foot. They lost hundreds of tanks supplied by NATO in an effort to break through to the Sea of Azov. They broke their teeth on Russian defensive belts 5 layers deep and didn’t scratch the first.
From October 2023 onward, Russia went on the offensive. They were not interested in “big arrow” attacks that cost men and materiel. The Russian leadership was extremely casualty-averse. Their approach was to grind the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) all along the front. Like scraping sandpaper across Ukrainian knuckles. The first few swipes weren’t bad. Western analysts spoke endlessly of a “stalemate.”
The war was never a stalemate. The Russians kept scraping. After weeks and months, Russia was grinding muscle and bone.
Russia relied on its massive superiority in artillery and airpower. At least 10:1 in artillery. Its missiles destroyed Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. While they were at it, the Russians mapped Ukrainian air defense and destroyed that. Russia augmented its artillery with glide bombs that destroyed Ukrainian fortifications.
The AFU fought hard, but by the summer of 2024, Ukraine was running out of money, men, and equipment. Zelensky needed more. He was desperate to join NATO and invoke Article 5. To prove Ukraine worthy of support, he wanted to demonstrate battlefield success.
Zelensky needed a big media splash. He decided to invade Russia.
Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive of August 6, 2024
The AFU had kept back a strategic reserve of men and machines. Thirty-one Abrams tanks and about a dozen Challenger IIs. NATO provided more vehicles, including 200 Strykers.
Prelude
Following their disastrous summer offensive of June – September 2023, Ukraine was on the back foot. They lost hundreds of tanks supplied by NATO in an effort to break through to the Sea of Azov. They broke their teeth on Russian defensive belts 5 layers deep and didn’t scratch the first.
From October 2023 onward, Russia went on the offensive. They were not interested in “big arrow” attacks that cost men and materiel. The Russian leadership was extremely casualty-averse. Their approach was to grind the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) all along the front. Like scraping sandpaper across Ukrainian knuckles. The first few swipes weren’t bad. Western analysts spoke endlessly of a “stalemate.”
The war was never a stalemate. The Russians kept scraping. After weeks and months, Russia was grinding muscle and bone.
Russia relied on its massive superiority in artillery and airpower. At least 10:1 in artillery. Its missiles destroyed Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. While they were at it, the Russians mapped Ukrainian air defense and destroyed that. Russia augmented its artillery with glide bombs that destroyed Ukrainian fortifications.
The AFU fought hard, but by the summer of 2024, Ukraine was running out of money, men, and equipment. Zelensky needed more. He was desperate to join NATO and invoke Article 5. To prove Ukraine worthy of support, he wanted to demonstrate battlefield success.
Zelensky needed a big media splash. He decided to invade Russia.
Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive of August 6, 2024
The AFU had kept back a strategic reserve of men and machines. Thirty-one Abrams tanks and about a dozen Challenger IIs. NATO provided more vehicles, including 200 Strykers.
On August 6, 2024, the AFU launched an offensive into Russia’s barren Kursk region. Their objective appears to have been the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP), deep behind the border. They achieved surprise. Russian defenses were light because there was nothing of value between the KNPP and the border. Russian nuclear facilities are typically guarded by a motor rifle brigade, which dug in to protect the KNPP.
The AFU attacked with several thousand men. The spearhead made rapid progress and more men were flowed in. Soon, Ukraine had 12,000 men in Russia. Approximately 3,000 of those were foreign contractors.
Western media were ecstatic. Zelensky boasted that Ukraine was making the Russians “feel” what war is like.
Kursk is flat steppe. It may be the least populated part of Russia next to Siberia. There is nothing there. Most important to a soldier, there is no cover and concealment.
One of the objectives of the AFU was to draw Russian forces from the Donbas. It didn’t work. The Russians did not divert their troops from the Donbas. They sent reserves – Chechen special forces and marines – to Kursk. Russian conscripts and border guards delayed the AFU long enough for the reserves to contain the attack.
The Russians held the AFU. The Ukrainians were stopped cold halfway to the KNPP. Frustrated, they wheeled west to try an end run. By this time, the Ukrainian big-arrow offensive was losing its punch. The Russians held off the AFU’s attack in the west.
The Ukrainians were learning what Russians already knew: big-arrow offensives mean big casualties. That’s why the casualty-averse Russians eschewed dramatic offensives for the slow scraping of sandpaper. Ukraine found itself losing thousands of KIA. The typical ratio has been ten Ukrainians for every Russian.
Western media talked about Russian “meat wave attacks.” A vulgar term, a trope left over from World War II. It’s an information war. Neither the Ukrainians nor the Russians use massed infantry attacks. There is no evidence for it whatsoever.
Zelensky sent more troops to Kursk. The reinforcements did no good. The Kursk offensive stalled.
Figure 2 below shows the state of play on August 16, 2024. At this point, the media were raving about the success of the Ukrainian attack and the humiliation visited upon the Russians.
But the Russian lines held. Artillery and air chewed up the AFU. The chances of the AFU reaching the KNPP were zero. The Kursk offensive was a brilliant tactical success, and a terrific media coup. The smart thing to do would be to withdraw in good order and conserve AFU men and materiel.
Unfortunately, Zelensky makes decisions with a media narrative in mind. The US presidential campaign season was ramping up. Zelensky planned a trip to the US to meet President Biden, Vice President Harris, and the Republican candidate, Donald Trump.
Zelensky ordered the AFU to hold their positions in Kursk. He wanted to prove that he and Ukraine were worth supporting. This mistake turned the tactical success into a strategic catastrophe.
Zelensky’s bauble, and the winter of 2024-2025
Zelensky reinforced Kursk with troops from his eastern and southern fronts. The Russians took advantage and pressed hard in the Donbas.
Ukrainian Rada MP Mariana Bezuhla (Figure 3) visited the Donbas front. She returned to Kiev with a damning message. The Russians, she said, were advancing unopposed through unmanned fortifications. Bezuhla should be commended for her courage. Not many people in Ukraine have the courage to speak up against Zelensky.
Zelensky secured more money and weapons from President Biden. Zelensky trumpeted his “Victory Plan,” which called for the strategic defeat of Russia. By this time, the correlation of forces made that impossible. However, the Biden administration provided Zelensky with enough support to get him over the US election.
The Russians’ sandpaper strategy was bleeding the AFU heavily. Candidate Trump won the election, and President Biden accelerated support for Ukraine. President-Elect Trump intended to end the war. President Biden was determined to make his successor’s task as difficult as possible.
Zelensky took what he could get.
The Russians Tighten the Screws
Russian strength around Kursk was growing and they were attritting the AFU at an accelerating rate. Ukraine’s division strength offensive began to consume prodigious quantities of men and materiel. Tens of thousands more than the original 12,000.
Figure 4 below shows the state of play on January 5, 2025. Compare it to Figure 2 above and look for Korenovo to the northwest. You will find it on both maps, and it should help you compare them.
The AFU have lost much of the ground they took in August. AFU positions are in dark blue, Russian positions are in red and peach. Far to the northeast is the KNPP. You see how the AFU offensive turned west after the KNPP attack stalled. This is all steppe. Land of no military value.
Zelensky continued to flow thousands of men into Kursk. NATO donated more vehicles. Russian drones blew them up as soon as they appeared. Kursk was too barren and flat. No cover. No concealment.
The Russians took their time. The Ukrainian offensive was contained. Kursk was a sideshow. The Russians concentrated their efforts on the undermanned AFU positions in Donbas while they destroyed the Ukrainians in Kursk.
Zelensky Wants to Trade
Why did Zelensky throw so may of his best men and weapons to the wolves? Why didn’t he withdraw them so they could live to fight another day? He was losing thousands through daily attrition. One reason stands out. He wanted to trade the Russian land for something of value.
The plan was dubious for two reasons. First, Russia could take the Kursk salient any time it wanted. Russians were taking their time because they were grinding up the AFU. Second, Russia would never trade anything for Kursk. Kursk is Russia. It’s non-negotiable. If you defile that black soil, they will bury you in it.
The Collapse
The Russians tightened the screws. The AFU fortified Sudzha, the single town of any size in the area. It is one of two gas metering points where natural gas enters Ukraine from Russia. Figure 5 below shows the state of play on March 7, when everything changed.
President Trump wanted a negotiated peace. However unrealistic, Zelensky was fixated on the maximalist demands of his Victory Plan. He was supported by the Europeans and the British.
The Americans were progressing with discussions with Russia in Saudi Arabia. Russia decided to accelerate the recapture of Kursk. They were ready to take Sudzha.
Study Figure 6 to Figure 9. You will see AFU positions progressively sliced up and overrun. The single road to Sumy was brought under fire control. Sudzha fell within days, and the AFU was routed.
President Trump, who has access to US spy satellite data, asked President Putin to spare the lives of the trapped AFU.
President Putin’s response was measured. Russia would be happy to accept the AFU’s surrender. He suggested Zelensky order the AFU troops in Kursk to lay down their arms. Zelensky responded that the AFU was not encircled and had the situation in Kursk completely under control.
Ukraine and Western media report that all the AFU withdrew in an orderly fashion to the sliver of dark blue on the border. Zelensky says, “No one is encircled.” Has anyone heard the phrase “trapped behind enemy lines?” There remain thousands of AFU troops scattered through the peach-colored areas of the maps above. They are cut-off and without comms, vehicles, or command and control. They are not in the blue areas.
Zelensky wants to mount another offensive, this time into Belgorod. More money, please. More weapons.
The AFU abandoned a lot of armor that is being hauled away intact.
Conclusion
Why did the Kursk salient collapse so quickly? We know Russia could have taken the salient any time it wanted. It only delayed in order to suck more Ukrainian cannon fodder into the fire sac.
Clearly, Russia decided to drop the hammer at the beginning of March. The question of why such good fighters as the Ukrainians could not hold Sudzha for more than a few days will be answered in my next article.
About the Author
You may reach Cameron at: cameron.curtis545@gmail.com
Cameron Curtis has spent thirty years in the financial markets as a trader and risk manager. He was on the trade floor when Saddam’s tanks rolled into Kuwait, when the air wars opened over Baghdad and Belgrade, and when the financial crisis swallowed the world. He’s studied military affairs and warfare all his adult life. His popular Breed series of military adventure thrillers are admired for combining deep expertise with propulsive action. The premises are realistic, the stories adrenaline-fueled and emotionally engaging.
Check out the books here: Cameron Curtis’s Amazon Page
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