SOFREP Evening Brief: Turkey and Israel Hold Talks to Prevent Clashes in Post-Assad Syria, Coalition of Willing Plans Troop Deployment for Post-War Ukraine Security

Good evening! Here’s your p.m. SOFREP brief for Thursday, April 10, 2025—covering the latest developments in global defense and security. Turkey and Israel opened talks to avoid military conflict in Syria as both nations expand influence in the post-Assad landscape. Israel released a controversial Palestinian prisoner amid scrutiny of prison conditions. The UAE rejected Sudan’s genocide allegations at the UN’s top court. Pakistan warned it will expel Afghan migrants awaiting Western resettlement by month’s end. In Ukraine, drone footage exposed the execution of POWs by Russian forces. NATO allies moved ahead with post-war security planning for Ukraine, without US support. Meanwhile, China denied Ukrainian claims that its citizens are fighting for Russia.

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Turkey and Israel Hold Talks to Prevent Clashes in Post-Assad Syria

Turkey and Israel have initiated technical talks to prevent military confrontations in Syria, according to a Turkish Defense Ministry official. The first round of discussions took place on Wednesday in Azerbaijan, focusing on establishing a de-escalation mechanism to avoid unintended conflict between their forces.

The talks come amid heightened competition between the two countries in Syria following the fall of President Bashar al-Assad late last year. Ankara and Jerusalem are pursuing divergent strategic interests in the region.

Turkey supports Syria’s new Islamist-led government, which emerged from the 13-year civil war with Turkish backing. Turkey’s military presence includes counterterrorism operations against ISIS and ongoing plans to set up joint training bases with Syrian forces.

Israel, on the other hand, views the Islamist leadership and Turkish influence as potential threats. It has created a buffer zone inside Syrian territory and expressed alarm over Turkey’s growing military footprint.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated this week that Turkish bases in Syria would pose a “danger to Israel.”

Despite deep tensions—intensified by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s outspoken criticism of Israel’s war in Gaza—both sides acknowledged the need for dialogue. Netanyahu’s office confirmed the talks and emphasized continued efforts to maintain regional stability.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan reiterated Ankara’s desire to avoid conflict, stating Turkey has “no intention of conflict in Syria, not only with Israel but with any country in the region.” He warned, however, that Turkey would act to protect its national security if destabilizing actions threatened the region.

US President Donald Trump has positioned himself as a potential mediator. While Netanyahu sought US backing against Turkish encroachment, Trump instead praised Erdogan for “taking over Syria” and urged Netanyahu to be “reasonable” in dealing with Turkey.

US President Trump says he told Israel’s Netanyahu he ‘has to be reasonable’ over any disputes with Türkiye; ‘Any problem that you have with Türkiye, I think I can solve’ pic.twitter.com/aHvweRM585

— TRT World (@trtworld) April 7, 2025

The next steps in de-escalation efforts remain under discussion, with both countries indicating a willingness to pursue further talks.

Israel Releases Palestinian Involved in 2015 Knife Attack at Age 13

Israel on Thursday released Ahmad Manasra, a Palestinian who participated in a 2015 knife attack in east Jerusalem when he was 13 years old.

Manasra, now 22, completed a nine-and-a-half-year prison sentence and was released amid controversy surrounding his mental health and conditions of incarceration.

In the 2015 incident, Manasra and his 15-year-old cousin, Hassan, carried out a stabbing rampage targeting Israeli civilians. Hassan stabbed a 13-year-old Israeli boy and an adult man before being shot dead by police. Manasra was run over by a car during the attack, then beaten and verbally abused by Israeli civilians. Footage of him bleeding and being taunted went viral at the time.

Manasra was convicted of attempted murder and sentenced to nearly a decade in prison. While incarcerated, he was diagnosed with schizophrenia, reportedly developed in solitary confinement.

According to his lawyer, Khaled Zabarqa, Manasra attempted self-harm multiple times and was frequently transferred to psychiatric wings for treatment, including injections to manage his condition.

The Israeli authorities have release Palestinian detainee Ahmad Manasra after a decade in prison.

The Palestinian Prisoners Club reported that Manasra had endured physical and psychological torture at the hands of the prison authorities since his arrest at the age of 13,… pic.twitter.com/1tT8CmHmrH

— Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) April 10, 2025

Despite repeated appeals citing his mental health and age at the time of the offense, Israel’s Supreme Court denied early release, ruling that his conviction for terrorism rendered him ineligible.

Israeli authorities maintain he was held in accordance with legal standards, though they declined to comment on the specifics of his confinement.

Rights groups and medical experts argue that prolonged isolation and prison conditions severely deteriorated Manasra’s mental state. A doctor who assessed him at 18 linked his schizophrenia directly to the psychological toll of incarceration.

Manasra’s release comes amid increased scrutiny of Israeli prison conditions, particularly following the Gaza war triggered by Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack. Former Palestinian detainees report worsening treatment, and several have required hospitalization upon release.

UAE Rejects Genocide Case at UN Court, Denies Arming Sudanese Rebels

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) argued before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on Thursday that the court lacks jurisdiction to hear Sudan’s genocide case accusing the UAE of supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a rebel paramilitary group engaged in the ongoing Sudanese civil war.

Sudan has petitioned the ICJ to issue emergency orders compelling the UAE to halt any alleged support for the RSF and to prevent violence against the Masalit ethnic group.

Sudan claims the UAE is in breach of the 1948 Genocide Convention by allegedly arming and funding the RSF, which stands accused of committing mass atrocities.

Reem Ketait, a senior UAE foreign ministry official, dismissed the claims as a misuse of international legal mechanisms.

“The idea that the UAE is somehow the driver of this reprehensible conflict in Sudan could not be further from the truth,” Ketait said, accusing Sudan of politically motivated litigation.

Legal experts say the case is unlikely to move forward due to the UAE’s reservation to parts of the Genocide Convention, which the ICJ has previously accepted as a barrier to jurisdiction.

“The court is most likely to say the same thing in this case,” said Melanie O’Brien, an international law expert.

The conflict in Sudan erupted in April 2023 between the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces. The war has claimed more than 24,000 lives and displaced over 14 million people, including 3.2 million refugees who have fled to neighboring countries.

While the UAE denies arming the RSF, evidence collected by Conflict Observatory, a US State Department-funded monitoring group, points to UAE-linked arms flights to the RSF via Amdjarass, Chad. The UAE insists the flights were humanitarian in nature, supporting a local hospital.

International Court of Justice holds a public hearing after Sudan accuses UAE of complicity in genocide against Masalit community in West Darfur pic.twitter.com/dx1Bn0usvo

— TRT World Now (@TRTWorldNow) April 10, 2025

In January, the US sanctioned RSF leader Mohammad Hamdan Daglo (a.k.a. Hemedti) and several RSF-owned firms based in the UAE, formally declaring the RSF guilty of committing acts of genocide.

Sudan’s military has reportedly regained control over key areas of Khartoum, including the international airport, as it continues to push back RSF forces amid the humanitarian catastrophe.

Pakistan Threatens to Expel Afghan Migrants Awaiting Western Resettlement by April 30

Pakistan announced Thursday that thousands of Afghan migrants awaiting relocation to third countries—including the US and the UK—may face forced expulsion if they are not resettled by the end of April.

Deputy Interior Minister Talal Chaudhry stated that host countries had been informed of the April 30 deadline. He added that all foreigners living illegally in Pakistan would be deported immediately, while individuals with UN refugee status would be permitted to remain at least until June.

The move follows the suspension of US refugee admissions programs, leaving more than 25,000 Afghan nationals in limbo. Many had fled Afghanistan after the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, fearing persecution for their work with US military forces, non-government organizations (NGOs), media, and human rights organizations.

Although thousands have already been resettled in the US, many others have been waiting in Pakistan for months, if not years, for their applications to be processed.

Pakistan began a nationwide crackdown on undocumented migrants in October 2023, resulting in the repatriation of over 850,000 Afghans to date. Authorities estimate another 800,000 Afghans remain in the country illegally, while 1.4 million hold UN-recognized refugee status.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Shafqat Ali Khan emphasized that the deportations target all undocumented foreigners, not just Afghans. He defended Pakistan’s record on humanitarian protection, stating, “There is hardly any example of a country which has been more generous to refugees than Pakistan.”

Pakistan says it continues to coordinate with UN agencies to address vulnerable cases, but insists it will not extend leniency beyond the current deadlines.

Drone Videos Reveal Execution of Ukrainian POWs, Underscore Growing War Crimes Concerns

Newly surfaced drone footage captured from both Ukrainian and Russian perspectives documents the execution of surrendered Ukrainian soldiers by Russian troops in southern Ukraine.

The incident, recorded on March 13 in the ruined village of Piatykhatky, adds to mounting evidence of war crimes amid a surge in extrajudicial killings during the ongoing conflict.

The Associated Press obtained video from a Ukrainian drone operated by Ukraine’s 128th Mountain Brigade. It shows four Ukrainian troops lying face down after surrendering, being searched, and then executed at close range by at least three Russian soldiers. One soldier methodically finishes off the wounded with controlled shots.

A second video, taken by a Russian drone and posted on pro-Kremlin social media, shows the same event’s initial stages. Russian troops are seen coaxing the Ukrainian soldiers out of hiding at gunpoint. The video ends before the execution, omitting the killings and instead setting the scene to ominous music.

Ukrainian authorities have launched a war crimes investigation. The 128th Mountain Brigade declined to comment while the probe is ongoing. The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission and Ukrainian prosecutors confirm a documented spike in prisoners of war (POW) executions by Russian forces, particularly since August 2024.

The mission reports at least 91 such cases, with Ukrainian prosecutors estimating 245 total POWs killed since 2022.

International experts reviewed the Ukrainian video and confirmed it as one of the clearest instances of extrajudicial execution.

“This is an illegal action,” said Rollo Collins of the Center for Information Resilience.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense has not responded to inquiries. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed that Russia abides by international law in its treatment of POWs. Meanwhile, Moscow continues to accuse Ukrainian forces of similar crimes but has provided minimal evidence.

Ukrainian war crimes chief Yurii Bielousov stated the executions are “part of the policy, fully supported by the top leaders of the Russian Federation.”

So far, Ukraine has logged over 157,000 suspected war crimes since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy maintains that justice and accountability must be part of any future peace agreement.

However, shifting US policy under the Trump administration has pulled support from international war crimes investigations. Washington has sanctioned staff at the International Criminal Court (ICC) and withdrawn backing for a special tribunal targeting Russian leadership. Aid cuts have also weakened efforts to gather evidence.

Former US Ambassador-at-Large for war crimes, Stephen Rapp, warned that without US leadership, hopes for prosecuting those responsible diminish. Despite this, Ukrainian officials vow not to forgive the atrocities committed on their soil.

Coalition of Willing Plans Troop Deployment for Post-War Ukraine Security

Defense ministers from roughly 30 nations met at NATO headquarters Thursday to advance plans for deploying an international force to Ukraine if a peace agreement with Russia is reached.

The meeting marks the first formal gathering of the so-called “coalition of the willing,” aiming to police and secure post-conflict Ukraine.

The coalition emerged following high-level visits to Kyiv last week by British and French military officers. Thursday’s session worked to expand on agreements made during earlier leader-level discussions.

The force under consideration would likely be stationed away from frontlines, possibly outside Ukrainian territory, and would act as a deterrent to any renewed Russian aggression.

‘Coalition of the Willing’ defense ministers meet at NATO https://t.co/f8fcH9dr7F

— Reuters (@Reuters) April 10, 2025

Notably absent from the meeting was the US, which has not committed to supporting the initiative.

Despite this, participating European ministers emphasized the necessity of US involvement to ensure the mission’s success.

Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen described the US as “crucial,” while Swedish and Dutch counterparts echoed that lasting security in Ukraine depends on some form of American engagement.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas confirmed that European officials are actively working to keep Washington engaged in the effort. Still, the Trump administration has issued no public pledge to provide support.

This is the first time we have the Coalition of the Willing in the format of Defence ministers.

This meeting is important to show our support for Ukraine and explore ways to strengthen it.

My doorstep @nato ahead of the meeting of the Coalition of the Willing ↓ pic.twitter.com/4Yp8MLjxua

— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) April 10, 2025

Military planners are wrestling with the challenge of building a force capable of deterring Russia, especially after years of downsizing across Europe’s militaries.

UK officials have floated figures between 10,000 and 30,000 troops, though contributions remain uncertain in the absence of a US commitment.

The proposed security force is also being developed amid warnings of an imminent Russian offensive. Ukrainian officials and analysts believe Moscow is preparing to intensify battlefield pressure in hopes of improving its negotiating leverage in potential ceasefire talks.

A broader meeting involving representatives from around 50 nations is scheduled for Friday at NATO. Britain and Germany will chair the session, which will focus on boosting immediate military support for Ukraine.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is not expected to attend.

China Denies Involvement After Zelenskyy Claims Chinese Nationals Fighting for Russia

China pushed back Thursday against allegations by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Chinese citizens are aiding Russian forces in Ukraine.

The response came after Zelenskyy claimed Kyiv had documented 155 Chinese nationals serving with Russian units, and that two Chinese soldiers were recently captured by Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region.

When asked about the claims, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian told “relevant parties” to avoid “irresponsible remarks.” He did not mention Ukraine or Zelenskyy directly but emphasized that Beijing urges all actors to view China’s role “correctly and clear-headedly.”

China has demanded that Ukraine stop making “irresponsible statements” about alleged Chinese soldiers in Ukraine — Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian. pic.twitter.com/wrxT1IOOSD

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) April 10, 2025

Beijing reiterated its longstanding position that it remains neutral in the conflict, despite mounting criticism from the West over its strategic alignment with Moscow.

Lin stated that China “has always required” its citizens to steer clear of any armed conflict and underscored that China is “not a creator of or party to the Ukraine crisis.”

Zelenskyy accused Russia of attempting to “drag China into this war,” a charge the Kremlin dismissed.

Russian government spokesman Dmitry Peskov defended Beijing, calling it a “partner, friend, and comrade,” and said Zelenskyy was “wrong” to suggest any Chinese involvement at Russia’s behest.

The exchange highlights growing international tensions over alleged foreign involvement in the war and comes amid ongoing scrutiny of China’s geopolitical stance in the three-year-old conflict.

Sources: News Agencies