Strengthening Deterrence: US Plans Deployment of Intermediate-Range Missiles in Indo-Pacific

The United States is set to deploy ground-based intermediate-range missiles in the Indo-Pacific region in a strategic move to fortify deterrence against escalating Chinese military prowess.

These impending deployments aim to bolster defense capabilities and counter the expanding arsenal of China’s missile systems.

Missile Options and Capabilities: SM-6 and Tomahawk Cruise Missile

Recent reports indicate that land-based versions of the Standard Missile-6 (SM-6) and the Tomahawk cruise missile are among the missile options under consideration.

The SM-6, with a range of 350 kilometers (217 miles), and the Tomahawk cruise missile, with a range of 2,500 kilometers (1,553 miles), are formidable choices.

Both missiles are compatible with the US Army’s Mid-Range Capability system, also known as the Typhon weapon system, enhancing the military’s flexibility and adaptability in deployment strategies.

One of the primary advantages of land-based missiles is their enhanced stealth capabilities. These missiles can potentially evade detection and minimize vulnerability to enemy strikes.

This characteristic sets them apart from other deterrence options, such as naval ships and combat aircraft.

Moreover, unlike naval assets, these ground-based missiles do not rely on ports or runways, providing greater operational flexibility.

Senior adviser Mark Cancian told Nikkei Asia the pressing need for a similar capability, citing concerns over Chinese missiles posing a threat to US naval bases in the western Pacific.

He highlighted that possessing such capabilities would allow the United States to target Chinese bases without risking the safety of ships or aircraft, potentially altering the power dynamics in the region.

The U.S. military plans to deploy ground-based intermediate-range missiles in the Indo-Pacific in 2024, establishing its first arsenal in the region since the end of the Cold War to enhance deterrence against China. https://t.co/kRjsr4Z4xU

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) December 4, 2023

Deployment Plans and Speculations: The Search for Strategic Locations

This initiative marks the first potential deployment of missiles with such extensive ranges following the expiration of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019.

The treaty, established in 1987, prohibited the United States and Russia from developing and possessing land-based missiles with ranges spanning from 500 kilometers (311 miles) to 5,500 kilometers (3,417 miles).

While the treaty constrained the United States and Russia, China expanded its missile arsenal unabated during this period.

According to the Pentagon’s annual report on China’s military power, China boasts a substantial arsenal, with approximately 1,500 munitions ranging from 1,000 kilometers (622 miles) to 5,500 kilometers.

However, the United States’ plans for deployment remain undisclosed regarding the specific locations.

Speculation arises, indicating that Guam, a US territory, might serve as the primary destination for these ground-based intermediate-range missiles.

Situated approximately 4,000 kilometers (2,485 miles) from the Chinese mainland, Guam’s strategic location could facilitate rapid deployment to Asian allies in response to emergent crises.

Reluctance of Neighboring Nations: Geopolitical Sensitivities and Concerns

Despite this, neighboring countries such as Japan and the Philippines exhibit reluctance to host these missiles.

Concerns revolve around the potential for becoming direct targets for Chinese retaliation if they house US missiles.

Nikkei Asia reports further suggest that, for now, these nations are apprehensive about assuming such risks, reflecting the complex geopolitical dynamics at play in the region.

Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, commented on the potential deployment, stating, “These will be permanently deployed to US territories in the region, primarily Guam.”

However, he hinted at the possibility of allies considering rotational deployments during crises, contingent upon future political dynamics.

US general confirms deploying new missiles to deal with China's invasion of Taiwan

The U.S. military has planned to deploy new land-based intermediate-range missiles in the Asia-Pacific region to prepare for the situation where the Chinese Regime invades Taiwan. pic.twitter.com/BmnUbZZisJ

— Spotlight on China (@spotlightoncn) November 28, 2023

China’s Expanding Nuclear Arsenal and Naval Force

Meanwhile, back in October, the Pentagon also noted in its annual report the growing nuclear arsenal of China, with projections indicating a substantial increase in their operational warheads by 2030.

As of May, the Asian superpower reportedly possessed more than 500 operational nuclear warheads, a significant surge from previous estimates.

However, while China’s nuclear capabilities are escalating, they still lag considerably behind the stockpiles maintained by Russia and the United States.

The United States maintains a substantial stockpile of approximately 3,700 nuclear warheads, with roughly 1,419 deployed for strategic purposes.

Similarly, Russia boasts approximately 1,550 deployed nuclear weapons, accompanied by a stockpile of 4,489 nuclear warheads, as reported by the Federation of American Scientists.

The Pentagon’s latest report emphasizes China’s rapid modernization and expansion of its nuclear forces, surpassing previous estimations in scale and complexity. This substantial growth is a testament to China’s intensified efforts to diversify and augment its nuclear capabilities over the past decade.

Beyond nuclear armament, China’s naval force has also experienced significant expansion. The Chinese Navy now boasts more than 370 ships and submarines—an increase from the 340 reported in the preceding year.

This expansion aligns with President Xi Jinping’s ambition to position China as the foremost military power in the region.

Notably, China already possesses the largest Navy globally, further underscoring its maritime aspirations.

Conclusion: Shaping the Indo-Pacific’s Strategic Dynamics

In conclusion, the US military’s strategic decision to deploy ground-based intermediate-range missiles in the Indo-Pacific region signifies a pivotal shift in defense strategy against China’s expanding military capabilities.

While aiming to strengthen deterrence and maintain regional stability, this move navigates through intricate geopolitical sensitivities, shaping the dynamics of power in the Indo-Pacific for years to come.

As plans unfold and geopolitical landscapes evolve, the deployment of these missiles will undoubtedly continue to draw attention and influence the strategic calculus of nations in the region.