2024 SOFREP Outlook for America, The Department of Defense, SOCOM, and Global Conflicts

As we peer into the distant horizon of 2024, we know it will be a defining year both at home in the U.S. and abroad. The free world waits, biting its nails, for the outcome of the American Presidential election in November that will influence the global economy and geopolitical landscapes in hot spots like Russia-Ukraine, Africa, and more recently, Israel-Gaza.

The following is our outlook for 2024, with major contributions from Brandon Webb (Editor-in-Chief), Donald Bolduc (Retired Brigadier General), and Guy McCardle (Managing Editor).

U.S. Presidential Election 2024

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are poised to take center stage once again. This isn’t merely a rerun; it’s a critical juncture that encapsulates the ideological and policy divides shaping not only the U.S. but the entire world.

The Supreme Court will likely determine Trump’s candidacy, and we see the court ruling in his favor and letting the population decide with free elections.

Nikki Haley was once a wild card and is now a serious contender for the Republican nomination in the face of a myriad of legal problems former POTUS Trump faces.

She is a serious challenger, bringing a unique blend of conservative policy and diplomatic experience. Her candidacy could pivot the Republican focus, offering a different and more steady path than Trump’s.

Haley’s track record as U.N. Ambassador underlines her understanding of international relations, making her a compelling figure in this high-stakes election. Her candidacy could sway not just American voters but also the global perception of the U.S.’s future role on the world stage.

This election transcends American borders. Nations around the globe will be closely watching as the outcome will influence global economic policies, military alliances, and international diplomatic relations. Leaders in regions like the Middle East, Asia, and Europe will recalibrate their strategies based on whether they are interfacing with a Trump-led (or potentially Haley-led) America.

The following is our outlook for 2024, with major contributions from Brandon Webb (Editor-in-Chief), Donald Bolduc (Retired Brigadier General), and Guy McCardle (Managing Editor).

U.S. Presidential Election 2024

The Supreme Court will likely determine Trump’s candidacy, and we see the court ruling in his favor and letting the population decide with free elections.

Nikki Haley was once a wild card and is now a serious contender for the Republican nomination in the face of a myriad of legal problems former POTUS Trump faces.

We don’t see Biden regaining a second term based on his loud and clear health issues and failure to deliver on key climate issues that won him a younger vote last election.

One thing to be on the watch for is U.S. Presidential election interference from Chinese and Russian intelligence agencies.

Both will exploit social media platforms, TikTok especially,to spread misinformation and manipulate public opinion.

By utilizing state-sponsored or proxy actors, they can target specific demographics, amplifying divisive issues and sowing discord within the American electorate.

Russia’s interference in the 2016 U.S. Presidential election has been widely documented and investigated. The Russian government, through various means, sought to undermine the democratic process, amplify social divisions, and influence public opinion. Their tactics included hacking and leaking sensitive information, utilizing social media platforms to spread disinformation, and conducting targeted propaganda campaigns.

We expect both China and Russia to have refined their interference strategies in the upcoming election in an attempt to further destabilize the U.S. democratic process and erode public trust.

The potential interference by China or Russia in the election raises concerns about the health of American democracy. The distortion of public discourse, erosion of trust, and manipulation of electoral outcomes pose severe threats to the integrity of the democratic process. To mitigate these risks, several safeguards can and should be implemented:

Strengthened Cybersecurity: The U.S. government must invest in robust cybersecurity measures to protect electoral infrastructure and prevent unauthorized access by foreign actors. Collaborative efforts with private tech companies and international partners should be pursued to enhance information sharing and response capabilities.
Increased Transparency: Political campaigns and social media platforms should promote transparency in advertising and communication practices. Implementing policies that require disclosure of the source of political advertisements and the use of fact-checking mechanisms can help mitigate the spread of misinformation.
Public Awareness and Education: Educating the public about the potential risks of foreign interference is crucial. Promoting media literacy and critical thinking skills can help individuals identify and reject false information, reducing the impact of disinformation campaigns.
International Cooperation: Collaboration with international partners is essential in combating foreign interference. Establishing clear protocols for information sharing, mutual assistance, and joint investigations can enhance collective efforts to identify and counter foreign interference attempts.
Strengthening Electoral Laws: Updating and enforcing existing laws to address new challenges in the digital age is vital. This includes regulating political advertising on social media platforms, clearly defining campaign finance rules, and imposing stringent penalties for those found guilty of foreign interference.

As we look ahead, the SOFREP understands the gravity of this election. It’s a pivotal moment where military strategy, international diplomacy, and global stability hang in the balance, waiting for the American electorate’s decision to chart the course.

Department of Defense (DOD) and Special Operations Command (SOCOM)

The DoD and SOCOM are likely to focus on modernizing and restructuring to address new types of warfare, including cyber threats and space defense. Expect increased investments in technology and Artificial Intelligence to maintain the U.S.’s strategic edge in an evolving hyper-competitive environment.

U.S. SOCOM is expected to receive increased attention and funding, reflecting the changing nature of global conflicts. The command’s role will likely expand beyond counterterrorism and unconventional warfare to encompass a broader range of responsibilities, including counter-cyberterrorism and information warfare. This expansion will require not only enhanced technological capabilities but also a more diverse skill set among SOCOM operatives, emphasizing cyber skills alongside physical prowess.

The DoD should continue to prioritize integrating SOF capabilities across the military branches. Recognizing special operations units’ unique skill sets and agility, efforts may be made to further integrate and synchronize SOF assets with conventional forces.

SOF is likely to maintain a prominent role in U.S. military operations, with irregular warfare continuing to dominate Global battlefields. The DoD may continue to allocate resources to support special operations missions, including counterterrorism, unconventional warfare, and stabilization efforts in conflict zones.

New capabilities such as artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, and cyber warfare will evolve, and the DoD and SOF need to adapt their strategies and operational concepts. Special operations units will require specialized training and equipment to utilize these advancements effectively.

The nature of global security threats is constantly evolving, and this will likely impact the relationship between the DoD and SOF. The focus may shift from counterterrorism to new challenges such as superpower competition, cyber threats, or emerging technologies. Special operations units may be called upon to address these evolving threats, requiring adjustments in training, equipment, and operational priorities.

The integration of SOF capabilities across the military branches, a focus on irregular warfare, technological advancements, the shifting threat landscape, and policy and strategic guidance will all play a role in shaping this relationship. The importance of special operations forces in addressing global security challenges is likely to persist, with efforts aimed at maximizing their effectiveness, enhancing interoperability, and adapting to emerging threats. As the security landscape evolves, the DoD and SOF will need to remain agile and responsive to meet the challenges of the future effectively.

Global Conflicts

As we stand on the precipice of 2024, the landscape of global conflicts presents a complex challenge that calls for a blend of strategic foresight and historical wisdom. The United States, under the watchful eyes of the next administration, faces a pivotal role in shaping not only the future of these regional disputes but also the overarching narrative of global peace and stability.

In Ukraine, the persistent stalemate and East-West tensions underscore the need for a nuanced approach, one that balances support with diplomatic ingenuity. The outcome of the U.S. Presidential election will significantly influence America’s role here, with each potential leader shaping the trajectory of U.S.-Ukraine relations and, by extension, the broader dynamics of European security.

The situation in Gaza continues to be a litmus test for America’s diplomatic resolve and ethical compass. The U.S. must navigate the delicate balance between supporting Israel’s right to defend itself and advocating for the humanitarian needs and dignity of the Palestinian people. This challenge is compounded by the internal political shifts within Israel, reflecting a broader struggle between hardline stances and democratic values. The next President has the opportunity, and indeed the responsibility, to champion a renewed peace initiative that strives for a lasting two-state solution, acknowledging the complexities and historical grievances on both sides.

In Africa, the tapestry of conflicts, from the Sahel to Somalia, calls for a comprehensive strategy that addresses the underlying issues of poverty, governance, and climate change. The U.S., alongside international partners, must commit to a sustained engagement that goes beyond military aid, focusing on building resilient institutions and supporting grassroots movements for peace and development.

Taiwan represents perhaps the most delicate of all these challenges, standing as a beacon of democracy in the shadow of a rising China. The U.S.’s commitment to Taiwan’s security and autonomy is more than a regional issue; it’s a statement about the values the U.S. seeks to uphold in the international order. The next administration must, therefore, tread carefully, bolstering Taiwan’s defenses while avoiding unnecessary provocation, ensuring that this flashpoint does not ignite into a broader conflict.

Summary

In conclusion, as we navigate these tumultuous waters, DOD leadership must use thoughtful analysis of historical patterns and future trends to guide our decisions made in 2024 that will ripple through history, affecting not just the immediate regions in conflict but the very concept of international order and the principles of freedom and democracy.

The world is watching, and the time for wise, courageous leadership is now.