Last week, multiple media outlets reported a “proof of life” video for Warren Weinstein, which you see above, courtesy of the terror-nerds of As-Sahab. Weinstein was taken from his home in Lahore, Pakistan on the morning of 13 Aug 11. Most media outlets describe Weinstein as a “government contractor“. Technically, he’s an employee of J.E. Austin Associates, which I won’t link to since I got this interesting Google Search result:

J.E. Austin Associates

Hacked. That’s interesting. Should be enough to get the conspiritards interested…

Anyway, J.E. Austin holds USAID contracts in multiple countries for indigenous business development, and Weinstein is/was an employee. I do find it interesting that most media reports refer to him as a government contractor. Accurate enough, I supposed, but the phrase has taken on new meaning since the GWOT. I think it’s safe to say, given Weinstein’s resume, he wasn’t in Lahore looking for bad boys. Assumably, he was executing a USAID contract for Pakistani business development not unlike this one here. And now, AQ has him squirreled away somewhere – forced to take a guess, my call is FATA.

First, let’s get something straight. The video isn’t a “proof of life.” A proof of life (POL) video has to have two things. One would be proof that at the time of the video, letter, phone call, etc.’ the hostage was alive. Verifiable handwriting, corroborated voice, or in this case, a living, breathing guy who looks and talks like Warren Weinstein. The other requirement for a POL is something that corroborates the time/date at which the POL was put forth. In POL videos, the most common item might be a dated newspaper. Or perhaps a reference to something that was known to occur on that day, and can be independently corroborated. This second requirement is noticeably missing in the latest Weistein video. Therefore, it’s a not a true POL video; it’s simply proof that, at some point in Obama’s second term as POTUS (Weinstein references this temporal fact in the video), Warren Weinstein was recorded, on video, and alive. Anything beyond that would require computer forensics analysis in an effort to re-construct a time and place for the video. And that isn’t something we’re going to see in the news.

Second, take off your pundit cap while you watch the video and put yourself in his shoes. Weinstein is clearly under duress. Whether from beatings hidden by the track suit and lack of movement within the video itself; or from the emotional and mental distress of being held in captivity for more than two years, Weinstein is in a bad spot. Also consider the fact that he doesn’t have SERE (Survival-Evasion-Resistance-Escape)  training to fall back on. Anything he says, or writes for that matter, has been scripted, rehearsed, and coerced.

Weinstein is one of two Americans whom I am aware of, known to be held hostage in Pakistan at this time. The other is Sgt (USA) Bowe Bergdahl. But while the latter is a known captive of that fun-loving Haqqani clan, the former is claimed by AQ. This is relevant because the release of the video, and discussion of current Personnel Recovery cases in Pakistan bears heavily on AfPak relations and the impending drawdown in Afghanistan. At this point, it’s checkers, not chess. Because let’s face it – contrary to what we might think, no hostage is worth kicking down doors for in Pakistan. It’s clear that both our government and Pakistan’s are good with unfettered drone strikes in the FATA. It’s a high-stakes equivalent of the “this is my side of the car” child’s game of antagonism. I’m not on “your side” if only my finger touches your side of the car. In the same way, we’re technically never in FATA, although there’s a load of American engineeering, electronics, and high-yield explosive ending up there.