The Mathematics of Viability

Can Ukraine be saved? I’m not talking about the war. It is now generally accepted that the Russia-Ukraine war is not winnable if we define the desired end state as the eviction of Russia from all occupied territory. That’s not going to happen. As I’ve discussed, the most likely outcome is a peace agreement along the lines of “Istanbul Plus,” Russia’s peace proposal of June 2024. For reference, see How President Trump Can Obtain a Ceasefire in Ukraine (Istanbul Plus). It is a modification of the agreed and initialed Istanbul peace proposal of April 2022, from which Ukraine walked away.

No. I’m talking about whether Ukraine can survive as a country.

Over three years of war, Ukraine’s population has almost halved. Much of the population has emigrated, either to Russia, Europe, the UK, or North America. That is not a surprise, but government policy has also created distortions. The Zelensky regime has closed the borders to all men aged 18-60 and has been aggressively conscripting or even press-ganging males over age 25. Russia occupies the industrial and mineral-rich lands east of the Dnieper. It will probably take at least four eastern regions and their populations in a peace settlement. That means all the population figures you see in Wikipedia and other atlases are provisional. It will be a long time before those entries are properly firmed up.

Surveys conducted in Europe and the UK indicate that few refugees intend to return. When the war ends and the border restrictions are lifted, those in Ukraine will probably join the emigrants abroad.

ukrainian-refugees-rehomed
Fig. 2 Over 8.1 million Ukrainians have fled the country. This constitutes a large percentage of the country’s prewar population. Chart: Visual Capitalist/Pranav Gavali

 

Conscription and Demographics

The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) minimum draft age is 25. In the waning days of 2024, AP reported that a Biden administration official (we can guess who it was) confirmed that the US was pressuring Ukraine to mobilize its 18-24 age group. This is backwards. Most countries mobilize that age group first. Young men are stronger, fitter, have better endurance, and recover from physical stress faster than older men. Furthermore, they are psychologically more malleable. When you think about it, an army is a highly organized, highly trained youth gang. Mobilized to kill for their country.

That unnamed official said, “the pure math” of Ukraine’s situation now is that it needs more troops in the fight. Currently, Ukraine is not mobilizing or training enough soldiers to replace its battlefield losses while keeping pace with Russia’s growing military.

From the Kyiv post, December 2, 2024: Ukraine’s actual number of fighting troops is about 350,000 men and dropping fast. One of the reasons Kursk collapsed is that Zelensky pulled two strong brigades out of Sudzha in late February and sent them east. After the now-legendary pipeline raid collapsed the Kursk salient, he rushed one of them back – too late. Now he’s sent it back east to Belgorod in an effort to seize Russian land in another media stunt. The point is, Zelensky does not have enough troops to defend Ukraine’s front. Ukraine is no longer capable of a sustainable offensive effort. Such efforts only cause it to lose more men it cannot afford to waste.