Follow the trail long enough and pay attention to who benefits the most in a global shift of attention and you’ll start to connect the dots and all roads may lead from Hamas to Iran and onto Moscow (Read more about Putin’s FSB spy agency here.)

A war between Hamas and Israel where Russia is involved in a conflict in Ukraine could have several impacts that might indirectly influence Russia and Putin’s position:

  1. Diverting Attention:
    • Global Focus: A conflict between Hamas and Israel could divert international attention and resources away from Ukraine due to the historical gravity and global impact of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
    • Media Spotlight: The media spotlight could potentially shift, at least partially, alleviating some of the international scrutiny directed at Russia.
  2. Resource Stretching:
    • NATO and Allies: If allies of Ukraine, especially the U.S. and European nations, are drawn to mediate or get involved in a fresh Israel-Hamas conflict, it could stretch their political and possibly military resources.
    • Humanitarian and Financial Aid: The diversion of humanitarian and financial aid to support the victims of a new conflict may potentially minimize the resources being sent to Ukraine.
  3. Strategic Shifts:
    • Military Movements: A new conflict could alter the military presence and activities in the proximate region, potentially influencing the logistics and dynamics of other geopolitical events, such as the hypothetical Russian involvement in Ukraine.
    • Political Alliances: The dynamics of international alliances could shift as countries may have to recalibrate their stances and priorities in light of the new conflict.
  4. Energy Markets:
    • Market Instability: The Middle East is a pivotal region for global energy markets. A conflict could disrupt or alter global oil and gas markets, potentially providing Russia with strategic advantages given its significant role as an energy supplier.
    • Economic Dynamics: Volatility in the energy markets can also influence global economic dynamics, which might affect nations’ capacity or willingness to get involved in or extend support to the Ukrainian situation.
  5. Security Council Dynamics:
    • UN Involvement: The dynamics within the United Nations, particularly the Security Council, might shift with members potentially being drawn into a conversation about the Israel-Hamas conflict instead of focusing solely on the situation in Ukraine.

Iraq’s prime minister on Wednesday called for Russian President Vladimir Putin to help reach a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas militants.

“Mr. President, I appeal to you as a president of a permanent UN Security Council member to come forward with an initiative on a real ceasefire and search for a real solution to the Palestinian issue,” Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani said at the Russian Energy Week forum in Moscow.

Putin, who spoke alongside Al-Sudani at the form, just minutes before voiced uncertainty that the fighting, which has been ongoing since Saturday, would end “any time soon.” –Moscow Times

In the sprawling canvas of conflict that pervades the soil of the Middle East, I find myself submerged in a contemplation that transcends the visible chaos unraveling in the recent, horrifying Hamas attacks on Israel.

The view from the periscope of my experiences, which navigates through the dark waters of military operations can’t help but envision the potential Russian shadows lurking beneath this cataclysmic surface. Is it possible that the FSB, Russia’s prodigious puppeteer of secretive engagements (the equivalent to the CIA and NSA wrapped all in one), has entwined its invisible fingers into this horrific display of violence and upheaval?

Ask yourself again, what country leader stands to gain the most out of this conflict?