Financial managers and investors in the United States are beginning to see considerable discounts in emerging markets as the massive sell-off continues. According to Reuters, emerging market stocks have hit a 17 month low, and have fallen 21 percent since the beginning of the year. Emerging Market currencies are also down eight percent since March of this year.
However, the decline of emerging markets makes it easier for investors to add emerging markets to their portfolio for a discount. According to Reuters, financial powerhouses like “Harding Loevner, Federated Investors, and Wells Fargo” have all shown an interest in emerging markets as a way to ride out the United States’ rising interest rates and the economic war between Beijing and Washington.
While the US and China continue to hit at each other with tariffs, some emerging markets are unlikely to be affected, making them an ideal choice for certain investors.
“We’re finding opportunities because of the trade war,” said portfolio manager Chris Mack of Harding Loevner Global Equity fund while speaking to Reuters.
While emerging markets can be found across the globe, Brazil is leading the pack as the next “up and comer.” According to a report from The Street, Brazilian stocks are poised for a big rally and will most likely be at the top of the emerging market list by the end of the year. While stocks in the Brazilian market are currently cheap — allowing investors to pick up a lot of volume — that trend is expected to reverse, which could yield a big payday.
“I’d be very selective in where I look for my exposure in emerging markets,” said INTL FCStone’s global market strategist Yousef Abbasi, while speaking to Reuters. Abbasi noted that Brazil and Indonesia might be good places to start investing. “Look for countries with a large U.S. dollar reserve, direct trade partners with the U.S. and that have (relatively) less exposure in terms of exports to China.”
Although emerging markets may look promising, they still are a long way from being a safe bet. Indonesia was recently struck by a destructive earthquake and subsequent tsunami and landslides, and Brazil’s political climate is relatively unstable as presidential elections are underway and are likely to result in a run-off, according to a report from Reuters.
Turkey and Argentina have both faced hard years, as well, and some experts are unsure if the economies of either country will ever fully recover. According to a report from the Financial Times, the adverse effects of these two markets are already being felt across the world.
“While conventional growth indicators look relatively healthy for most countries, weakening business and consumer confidence bode poorly for growth prospects in many of them, especially the major emerging markets,” said Brookings senior fellow Professor Eswar Prasad, while speaking to the Financial Times.