Russia Will Invade Ukraine as China Invades Taiwan

You’ve probably seen the pundits on TV News networks selling a China-Russia Doomsday Scenario that goes something like this:  Russia and Communist China see the Biden administration as unpopular at home, rudderless in its foreign policy, and confused as to the role of the U.S. in the world.  Seeing opportunity there, Russia and the Chicoms will coordinate a joint attack where Russia will invade Ukraine annexing it entirely as the communists embark on a full-scale amphibious and airborne invasion of Taiwan.

The United States, facing a war on two fronts and lacking the political will and solid leadership in the White House will do nothing to interfere.  Russia will be able to restore a significant part of its previous holdings when it was the empire of the USSR and Communist China will at long last regain what it regards as a rebellious province that has remained separated for going on eighty years.

We are told that the White House and Pentagon are both deathly afraid of this happening saying that in this scenario, the U.S. will lose not one, but both wars at the same time.

While it probably gets eyeballs on screens to make these kinds of prognostications of doom and failure, we should also ask how likely is it that this Doomsday Scenario would actually play out.  In my estimation, it’s not very likely.

Here is why.

In Ukraine, the Russians have parked an army of about 110,000 troops on its border. The bone of contention for Putin here is Ukraine seeking membership in NATO hoping to protect itself from further Russian aggression of the kind that resulted in the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Ukraine was the second most populous region in the old Soviet Union and was the breadbasket of the country growing most of its wheat and corn.  It also contained vital defense industries and military bases including Sevastopol which was the home of the Black Sea Fleet. The USSR had parked a significant amount of its strategic and theater ranged nuclear weapons in the country too. There are a great many ethnic Russians mixed among the population as well.  When Ukraine sought independence from the USSR in 1991, this loss of such important ground may have been the straw that broke the camel’s back in the final collapse of the Soviet Union.

For these reasons, Putin might very well want Ukraine back inside the borders of Russia but that would come with a significant price in terms of having a vast new area he would have to defend that contains a largely resentful and potentially hostile population.  If he folded Ukraine back into the Russian Federation, Ukrainians would also get to vote in elections which could result in his being unseated by a rival.