The Wagner Group has led Russia’s covert operations in Africa for the past decade. Successfully propping up several juntas, the mercenaries have unvetted access to several strategic African nations that now fund the group’s operations through natural resources.
The partnership with Wagner with the African juntas now faces uncertainty after a decapitation strike against the organization’s leadership has effectively crippled the mercenaries. Now wanting to consolidate power against any potential rivals, the Kremlin looks to excerpt its influence across all Russia’s overseas activities.
The Strike on Wagner’s Leadership
Initially promising exile to Wagner’s leaders, it appeared Vladimir Putin went back on his agreement with the group and had Yevgeny Prigozhin and his deputies assassinated. Prigozhin’s assassination sent shockwaves worldwide, but all signs have pointed to an FSB-orchestrated liquidation, as Putin is known never to forgive or forget any slights.
Immediately after the assassination, Putin signed a law stating all non-government militias to swear an oath of loyalty to the Russian flag. The remaining Wagner members must sign contracts under Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu or Russia’s foreign intelligence, the GRU.
Wagner’s Presence in Africa
Wagner maintains a heavy presence in Africa, and the continent is arguably more of their power base than the Russian Federation. At the beginning of the 2010s, the PMC established a broad network across African nations with political turmoil or Islamic extremism.
Making deals with sanctions leaders and military juntas, Wagner pledged to combat militant groups in return for access to Africa’s rich natural resources, which fund their operations. Wagner currently has a presence in Mali, Libya, Sudan, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic and influences Niger and other African nations dissatisfied with Western policies.
The group’s experience in counterinsurgency operations (COIN) has successfully pushed back groups such as ISIS and al-Qaeda, primarily due to the mercenaries not following the rules of war, allowing them to enact hardline methods. Along with COIN, the PMC has been the Kremlin’s arm in hybrid warfare, specializing in destabilizing African countries where Russia would look like the hero by offering help.
It is believed that Wagner has influenced the various military junta belts in Central and West Africa. With Russia’s overall hybrid warfare operations, the group looks to exacerbate ethnic and regional tensions on the continent to grow the refugee and migrant crisis in Europe.
Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Might Take Over Operations
To force Wagner into its strict dominion, the Kremlin hinted that their foreign intelligence agency, the GRU, could take over clandestine African operations. The GRU is a powerful intelligence agency that incorporates the Spetsnaz and has assassinated dissidents and political rivals of Vladimir Putin.
General Audrey Averyanov, the current GRU chief, has been in Africa, particularly during the Russia-Africa summit. The open appearance of the GRU head suggests the agency is now stepping up to exert its influence over the pro-Russian African states and keep the remaining mercenaries in line.
The Russian-Backed Juntas are Now Under Pressure
Wagner’s continuous foothold in Africa was critical to Russia because the group was detrimental to the “dirty work” of the Kremlin. The PMC has been placed as an international terrorist organization, with the United Kingdom preparing to bring forth legislation with the US in discussion to reciprocate them.
Russia’s ongoing political and military impasse in Ukraine has far-reaching implications for its overseas operations, particularly in Africa. Due to sanctions affecting the Russian war effort, the Kremlin has been unable to oblige its defense contracts with allies such as India, Iran, and Armenia. The lack of military equipment could affect the status of Russian proxies in Africa.
Prioritizing an increasingly failing war to overseas operations in Africa will become a significant topic to discuss within the Kremlin. Russia specializes in hybrid warfare, particularly against former French territorial possessions, as France was one of Africa’s most brutal Western European powers.
If the Kremlin were to wain support for the African juntas, they would be pressured to negotiate a peaceful transition back to civilian rule by countries such as France and the United States. Being diplomatically isolated, the juntas heavily rely on Russian support, especially now that the West has cut off their economic and development aid.
The liquidation of the Wagner Group’s leadership has both pros and cons for Vladimir Putin. As a positive, he no longer has radical elements that will openly challenge his leadership, and as a negative, he now has to frankly take over the PMC’s illicit operations, which could further degrade and destroy the Russian economy with further sanctions.
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