How We Execute Long Range Missile Attacks

Who is Shooting Missiles into Russia?

“Biden allows Ukraine to strike inside Russia with missiles.”
—BBC

“Ukraine fires US-supplied longer-range missiles into Russia…”
—BBC

“Ukraine fires UK-supplied cruise missiles into Russia…”
—Reuters

“Ukraine fires US-supplied missiles into Russia for first time…”
—New York Times

Let’s be clear: UKRAINE HASN’T DONE SQUAT.

All the news media say the same thing. All the talking heads say the same thing. All the official spokespeople say the same thing. It’s not true. You should understand who is doing what, whenever these ATACMs and Storm Shadows are fired into Russia. You need to understand that the process is 99% American, 1% British, and almost no Ukraine. The Russians know it and have said so. That’s why they consider Russia to be at war with the US and the UK, as well as Ukraine. The purpose of this article is to explain why this is so.

The Long-Range Missile Targeting Process

Here’s how it works. Pay attention to who does what.

Step 1: Create Topographical Map of the Battlespace

The US Geospatial Intelligence Agency creates a topographical (3-dimensional) map of the battlespace using imagery and intel obtained from US spy satellites. Ukraine has no spy satellites and is totally dependent on the US for this.

Step 2: Overlay Electronic Warfare Map on top of the Topographical Map from Step 1

United States technical analysts in the analysis center (probably in Ramstein, Germany) take the electronic warfare threat database and overlay it on top of the topographical map from Step 1 to create a composite map of the battlespace. In SOFREP article Electronic Warfare 101, we described how this threat database is created and how the EW map is created. It is a map of all known Russian air defense radars. The database is created using US and UK electronic support measure aircraft (e.g. RC-135 intel aircraft and MQ-9 drones). Ukraine has no such assets.

The result is a composite map that shows both the 3-dimensional topographical features of the battlespace and all the Russian radars and electronic warfare threats. Ukraine has no ability to create this map.

Step 3: Analyze the composite map to identify routes to the target

United States technical analysts in the analysis center (probably in Ramstein, Germany, but could be elsewhere) analyze the 3-D composite map. They identify possible missile routes from launch points to the target (Determined by high command and US-approved. On September 13, Keir Starmer brought the UK target deck to Washington for Biden to approve. At that time, Biden didn’t even look at it). The routes are designed to exploit holes in Russian radar coverage. If it is possible to jam Russian radars to create holes that can be exploited, such offensive electronic warfare is considered. Ukraine has no ability to do this.

Figure 2 shows a stylized Storm Shadow mission profile. The missile flies close to the earth and avoids terrain features that obstruct its path. The route is designed to use terrain to conceal its approach and avoid radar.

Notice the missile does not go around all the terrain features. At times it goes over them.

Step 4: Write a program to guide the missile from launch to target along designed route

United States technical analysts in the analysis center (probably in Ramstein, Germany) take the routes they determined and select the ones they want to use in the attack. The attack will probably involve more than one missile in a salvo, and they diversify the routes. They know most of the missiles will be shot down by Russian integrated air defense and want to maximize the probability of their missiles getting through.

They then write programs for those routes to guide the missiles from selected launch points to the target. Ukraine does not have this training or capability.

Step 5: Transmit encrypted program from Intel Center to C2 Center in the field

The routes and programs are secret and sensitive. They are transmitted using US encryption from the analysis center to the command and control C2 center in the field – in Ukraine. Wherever that might be. It could be Kiev, Lvov, Dnipro or somewhere else closer to the front. It is probably close to air bases where the missiles are stored.

Step 6: Decrypt message and upload program to missile through encrypted interface

The encrypted traffic must be decrypted at the C2 center by American operators equipped with US devices.

The American operators then upload the programs into the missiles using a proprietary, encrypted software interface. This is important – it is a US interface. UK, French and Ukrainian operators are not able to perform the process to upload the programs into the missiles’ brains.

It’s worth noting that these missiles are reliant on GPS to get them to their targets. This is not commercial GPS. It’s encrypted, military-grade, two-channel GPS.

Remember when Sir Keir Starmer flew to Washington on September 13 to seek permission for the UK to strike into Russian territory with Storm Shadows? Why would the UK prime minister have to do that? Simple. Because UK operators can’t perform all the tasks above. They contribute to the process, particularly in the EW space, but they cannot do it all, soup-to-nuts.

Step 7: Push the button and fire the missile

This is the one step in the process that might be done by Ukrainians, except the button might be labeled in English.

The above process should make it clear that Ukrainian personnel have minimal, if any, role in the attack. There really is not much more to say than that. American and British operators have to do all the work in the analysis center and the C2 center, right up to the uploading of programs into the missile guidance before they go into the field. This is probably done at the air base, where the weapons are prepared for flight.

In 2023, German generals were hacked, discussing the use of Taurus missiles to destroy the Kerch bridge between Crimea and Russia. The meeting was held on the German military’s insecure version of Zoom. They concluded it would take dozens of missiles and would require the presence of German operators on the ground in Ukraine. Following the leak of that hack, Olaf Scholz became adamant that Taurus missiles would not be supplied to Ukraine. Scholz may lose his leadership role in February. His potential successor is keen to get Taurus missiles into the fight.

Whenever Zelensky begs for missiles to use against Russia, he is begging for the US, UK, France, and Germany to shoot missiles into Russia for him. Understand that. The talking heads make it sound like we give him the missiles, then he does what he wants with them, and whatever he does with them has nothing to do with us.

Nothing could be further from the truth. The Russians are not fools; their missiles follow the same targeting process. They have called us out on it. Russia considers themselves to be at war with any country involved in long-range missile fire into Russia’s pre-2014 borders.

Don’t be surprised when Russia nukes Ramstein or some other NATO C2 base involved in these attacks. We’ve fired ATACMs and Storm Shadows into Russia and killed Russians. This week, they responded by firing a nuclear-capable MIRV-equipped IRBM into Dnipropetrovsk as a warning. This time, it was loaded with a conventional payload, but Russia is not playing games. Next time could be different.

Western leaders are determined to continue on their present course. It is a course that could lead to us eating nukes for breakfast. Yet the media, the public, and many lawmakers remain grossly uninformed.

What’s next?

About the Author

You may reach Cameron at: [email protected]

Cameron Curtis has spent thirty years in the financial markets as a trader and risk manager. He was on the trade floor when Saddam’s tanks rolled into Kuwait, when the air wars opened over Baghdad and Belgrade, and when the financial crisis swallowed the world. He’s studied military affairs and warfare all his adult life. His popular Breed series of military adventure thrillers are admired for combining deep expertise with propulsive action. The premises are realistic, the stories adrenaline-fuelled and emotionally engaging.

Check out the books here: Cameron Curtis’s Amazon Page

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