President Biden claimed at a brief press conference yesterday that Russian President Vladimir Putin has already decided to invade Ukraine in the coming days. He reportedly received information that Russia has Ukraine completely surrounded and that the Kremlin would be targetting Kyiv. This is a sudden turn-around for Biden, who had just stated 72 hours ago that no final decision from Putin had been made to invade Ukraine. This follows an earlier prediction made by the White House that Russia would invade Ukraine on February 16th.

This report comes after Biden and Putin had incremental success with diplomatic talks, with the Kremlin saying they had begun withdrawing troops from the Ukrainian border following the completion of military exercises with Belarus with Biden re-committing to diplomacy in addressing security concerns.

“We have reason to believe that Russian forces are planning and intend to attack Ukraine in the coming week, in the coming days,” said Biden in the White House.

This report by Biden is one of many reports that claim a Russian invasion is imminent, with the most recent one being a February 16 invasion that prompted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to announce a national day of unity. When the imminent(which means at any moment) invasion did not happen, the United States was trolled by various Russian government officials and official government accounts stating that Biden and the West had been the source of extreme disinformation.

“Make no mistake, if Russia pursues its plans, it will be responsible for a catastrophic and needless war of choice. The US and our allies are prepared to defend every inch of NATO territory from any threat to our collective security, as well,” Biden expressed. “Over the last few days, we’ve seen reports of a major uptick in violations of the ceasefire by Russian-backed fighters attempting to provoke Ukraine in the Donbas,” the President continued.

Pentagon intelligence reports also claim that the Russian military has moved forces toward the border within the last 8 hours despite the Kremlin reporting that it had been withdrawing troops from the border a few days ago. Russian forces have been said to be in an attack position, with those ready to attack within 40% to 50%.

SOFREP continues to monitor the situation at the border, being one of few media outlets that stated an invasion was unlikely to happen due to the harsh winter weather, the absence of field hospitals, fuel, and ammunition dumps, as well as a lack of ultimatums from both sides. However, new reports with the BBC determined that there were large-scale updates to Russian forces on the border, with a single field hospital now in place in Belarus. This is not conclusive proof of an imminent invasion since this area of Belarus has been a training area for joint exercises with Belarus for decades.  For an invasion involving 150,000 troops, you would expect to see a dozen field hospitals located at various points near the front with dozens of military ambulances parked and waiting.  Generally, you don’t locate field hospitals in the middle of large military encampments since they are not military targets under the rules of war.  Locating one inside a military encampment, however, exposes it to attack because the military camp itself is a legitimate target. This is something you would do in a training exercise, however.

The U.S. has vast photo intelligence capabilities that have not been on display, the administration could produce compelling evidence of large fuel and ammunition dumps, field hospitals, and armored units lined up on the roads leading into Ukraine and staged for an immediate invasion but has failed to produce them so far.