Did you come across a lot of foreign spooks and other suspect characters in Ukraine?
Lots of journalists, very few foreign guys trying to reach the right people to obtain information. I was able to meet with an Ukrainian SOF Veterans Association, and they told me I was the first foreigner to meet them to talk about the war. It was weird as most of them served in Afghanistan along with their Russian counterparts and they still keep talking through social networks even with the ongoing war.
Tons of Russians… like TONS of them, everywhere, they just told everyone that are Ukrainians but have family/live abroad.
What do you think Russia’s military objectives are in Ukraine? Are they going to attempt to surround and land lock Kiev, or are they simply going to dump arms and mercenaries into the country to de-stabilize the region?
Probably both… The Donbass “insurgency” started just as a way to make the Ukraine forget about Crimea and to worry about a bigger problem, but their military industry, coal mines, and the access to Azov’s Sea rights for gas extraction are too sweet to let them pass.
Kremlin is right now thinking of establishing a “friendly new country” from Trandsniester to Donetsk as a great opportunity. They just need to keep this scenario going until winter.
How is morale holding up amongst Ukrainian forces? What type of Western assistance are they receiving?
Morale is very low in military units, some of them were trapped without supplies (water, food, ammo, fuel…) for weeks while being attacked by Russian artillery. Some units were completely annihilated. Volunteer Battalions depend of their own, but tensions with UA Military are clear, claiming to being the most exposed in combat while not receiving armor or artillery support.
Very few help, most of the modern Western gear and weapons were in Ukraine before the Maidan, most of the new stuff is being crowdfunded or made by volunteers (UAVs included). The Ukrainian military industry really needs help to start working again. When Crimea was taken over, 13 of the most modern factories changed hands, 7 in Lugansk, 5 in Donetsk.
A few countries with old Soviet stuff are sending spares for Su25, An26, T72… but very little in terms quantities. Croatia is going to send more helicopters, just like Hungary sent (through a Czech company) old T72s so the Ukrainians can update them.
Were you able to speak to anyone and gather accounts from the front lines?
Yeah, from Donbas, Aydar and Kyiv battalions, 95th Airborne Brigade and one SOF unit from SBU. Incredible mix of characters, from 40-something combat veterans with experience in Chechenya with Russian units, to a 19-year old working as a SIGINT guy using Zello and exploiting info on VKontakte.
What role is social media playing in the conflict? Is the internet or certain services shut down or taking off-line at certain times?
A brutal role. The Kremlin has a huge propaganda machine rolling all day long, tons of Twitter bots… rumors appear and vanish in minutes, like claims of some new artillery unit being stolen from a Ukrainian depot… and suddenly the same system (in use by Russia too) crosses the border without any markings.
Comms are available almost country-wide, but no secure lines. Russian ELINT/EW units (specially from VDV) were popping along and across the border to shut down comms just before any attack. It is like an insurgency with UAVs and better artillery and SIGINT that the regular forces exploit.
(Featured Image Courtesy: RTE)
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