Figure 1. Stocks of missile warheads at Iranian missile city a quarter of a mile underground
The Israeli Strike of October 25/26
There are three narratives of the Israeli strike on Iran on October 25/26. Let’s summarize them.
(1) The Israeli Narrative
“We struck Iran with over a hundred planes, we destroyed all their S-300 air defenses. We struck a former nuclear building (Taleghan 2) at Parchen. We destroyed two buildings at Khojir used to house blenders of solid rocket fuel and set the Iranian missile program back two and a half years. We hit one fuel tank at an oil refinery with three waves of attacks. We won, the mission was a great success.”
This is the narrative pumped out by mainstream media. There are a few problems with it, which are addressed in this article.
(2) The Iranian Narrative
“The Israelis attacked, but our air defense held. They struck some targets and we suffered some damage, but our capability is largely unaffected. The significance of this attack should be neither understated nor overstated. The Supreme Council will decide how to respond.”
What could possibly be wrong with this narrative? It is Iran’s usual “balanced” and “humble” line. Don’t they do it well? They usually respond this way before they pull the nasty out of their bag of tricks.
(3) The Alternate Narrative
The Israeli attack on the night of October 25/26 was a cluster. The damage inflicted on Iranian military capability was nothing more than a handful of pinpricks. Israeli strikes on surface targets were feeble, and they did not touch Iran’s underground facilities at all. They’re asking us to take their word for it that they broke Iran’s back. But there are important reasons the Israeli attack failed.
Problem #1. A US NSA intelligence leak on October 17 spilled the beans and caused the Israelis to initially cancel the attack. All the details of the types of weapons to be deployed and their numbers were leaked. Many analysts concluded the Israelis were planning a decapitation strike. None of this is controversial. The document has been made public, and the FBI’s ongoing investigation has identified a suspected leaker. The document is shown in Figure 2 and available here:
There are three narratives of the Israeli strike on Iran on October 25/26. Let’s summarize them.
(1) The Israeli Narrative
“We struck Iran with over a hundred planes, we destroyed all their S-300 air defenses. We struck a former nuclear building (Taleghan 2) at Parchen. We destroyed two buildings at Khojir used to house blenders of solid rocket fuel and set the Iranian missile program back two and a half years. We hit one fuel tank at an oil refinery with three waves of attacks. We won, the mission was a great success.”
This is the narrative pumped out by mainstream media. There are a few problems with it, which are addressed in this article.
(2) The Iranian Narrative
“The Israelis attacked, but our air defense held. They struck some targets and we suffered some damage, but our capability is largely unaffected. The significance of this attack should be neither understated nor overstated. The Supreme Council will decide how to respond.”
What could possibly be wrong with this narrative? It is Iran’s usual “balanced” and “humble” line. Don’t they do it well? They usually respond this way before they pull the nasty out of their bag of tricks.
(3) The Alternate Narrative
The Israeli attack on the night of October 25/26 was a cluster. The damage inflicted on Iranian military capability was nothing more than a handful of pinpricks. Israeli strikes on surface targets were feeble, and they did not touch Iran’s underground facilities at all. They’re asking us to take their word for it that they broke Iran’s back. But there are important reasons the Israeli attack failed.
Problem #1. A US NSA intelligence leak on October 17 spilled the beans and caused the Israelis to initially cancel the attack. All the details of the types of weapons to be deployed and their numbers were leaked. Many analysts concluded the Israelis were planning a decapitation strike. None of this is controversial. The document has been made public, and the FBI’s ongoing investigation has identified a suspected leaker. The document is shown in Figure 2 and available here:
Figure 2. Leaked NSA document published on Twitter-X by Middle East Spectator
Of course, the Iranians were forewarned and moved all their assets. But the Israelis were wedded to launching an attack before the US November 5 election, so they went anyway. Same strike package, but a different – this time military – target deck. The Israelis planned three waves: A first wave was Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD) to destroy Iranian radars and S-300s, A second wave to launch 16 Golden Horizon ALBMs at military targets (too weak a force to hit more than three or four), a third wave to conduct Battle Damage Assessment (BDA).
Problem #2. Israeli F-35i Adirs in the first wave were locked by an unknown target engagement radar at a range of approximately 300 miles while they were over Iraq. This issue is discussed in full here: F-35i Adir Stealth Defeated by Unknown Russian/Iran Radar
Presumably, the strike package and F-35i Adirs were spotted by Russian/Iranian long-wave radar the moment they took off, and those radars cued unknown engagement radars that locked the Adirs from inside the Iranian border. If you can lock a target, you can kill it. The Israelis launched their missiles over Iraq, turned around, and went home. The aircraft of the first and second waves launched their missiles very close together. The 16 Golden Horizon missiles were probably launched prematurely. The Third Wave (BDA) aborted completely.
Even before the Israeli planes landed, the Israelis did the only thing they could. Still shaking from the experience, they declared victory. “We won, great success.” They declared victory while observers were still waiting for the second wave. Because the first two waves were launched so close together, they looked like one.
What’s wrong with the “alternate narrative?” While there is no question about the NSA leak and the mayhem it played with the Israeli plan, the story of the unknown engagement radar relies on anonymous Israeli sources. Anonymous because if true, it has frightening implications, and the Israelis don’t take kindly to leaks. Even so, the entire narrative outlined in this SOFREP article, NSA leak causes feeble Israeli strike on Iran, makes complete sense.
What’s wrong with the Israelis’ mass media narrative?
The Israelis had no choice but to declare victory. It would be too embarrassing to admit the mission was a cluster. The Israelis cannot admit that the balance of power in the region has shifted. This is because the Iranians can penetrate Israeli air defense (as they proved on October 1, Iranian missile swarm overwhelmed Israeli air defense). Israel cannot penetrate Iran’s air defense.
Let’s go through the problems with the mainstream media’s Battle Damage Assessment (BDA)
1. All the targets struck were surface targets. Israel did not strike Iran’s underground missile facilities, which form the bulk of its capability.
2. Per the NSA leak, the strike was conducted with 16 Golden Horizon missiles originally meant for decapitation targets, plus 40 ROCKS missiles to destroy air defense sites (SEAD). This is far too light a force to cause significant damage.
What if there were 80 ROCKS, and 32 Golden Horizons? Well, then the Iranians intercepted more missiles or Israel missed more, because the BDA is not consistent with those numbers.
3. Parchen and Taleghan 2. Notice the media repeatedly state that Taleghan 2 is a former nuclear test building. It hasn’t been used for that purpose for years, if it ever was. What’s it used for now? It’s not nuclear. The IAEA’s been there to inspect it over the years and found nothing. Understand it’s used to assemble MLRS… tactical rocket artillery.
4. Khojir. BDA photos of Khojir are discussed in this SOFREP article, Israel’s secret ALBMs strike Iran. Two buildings were damaged out of fifteen used to house blenders that mix solid rocket fuel. Some photos in the public domain have been cropped so as to show a much smaller number of buildings. All the buildings are set in excavated pits, surrounded by high earthen berms to protect them from explosions in adjacent structures. Rocket fuel plants experience their share of accidental explosions. They are designed to minimize damage from accidents as much as enemy missile attacks. It would have required all 16 Golden Horizons to wipe out the base. The Chinese-manufactured blenders will be willingly replaced. Finally, most of this work has been moved underground.
5. Oil refinery. The Israelis hit one tank out of dozens. And the Israelis announced they did not strike oil and nuclear facilities. Was this a stray missile, or did they hit what they were aiming at?
Hitting that oil refinery had better have been an accident. We’re lucky that one tank they hit didn’t set the whole refinery on fire. Why? The Iranians are ready to blockade the Straits of Hormuz and gift us $200 oil for Christmas. Our “freedom of navigation” exercise can’t keep the Red Sea open against the Houthis – the Israeli Port of Eilat is bankrupt – how are we going to keep the Persian Gulf open?
Dangerous Implications
The real problem with the Israelis’ mass media narrative is this: If we drink our own Kool-Aid, we can talk ourselves into a conflict that escalates far beyond our expectations. We might pursue a strategy of risky escalation at a time when Israel should fight to win conventional wars against Iranian proxies.
Implications for Air Operations Against Iran
Iran did not want to shoot down those F-35i Adirs. It didn’t want to escalate. The Iranians could have killed those Adirs, but they didn’t because Iran did not want to escalate. The Israelis turned back because Israel is extremely casualty-averse.
Next time, maybe Iran will shoot. If we’ve got American and British aircraft attacking with the Israelis, we’re going to lose pilots.
Implications for Air Operations in Ukraine
Ukraine is losing the war, and everyone is panicking. Zelensky’s strategy is to drag NATO into the war. Fire long-range missiles into Russia. Get those F-16s into the air. The Ukrainian pilots are inadequately trained, but there are efforts to recruit F-16 contract pilots in the USA. Maybe, if enough people believe the story that North Koreans are fighting Kursk, they can get South Korean pilots to fly Ukrainian F-16s.
One problem. The F-16 is a fourth-generation fighter in the same class as the MIG-29 and SU-27. All those Ukrainian planes got shot down. Last year, Ukrainian planes were falling out of the sky, shot down in droves by Russian S-400s. Russians have given sophisticated air defense to the Iranians. This “unknown engagement radar” the Israelis encountered was probably battle-tested in Ukraine during 2023. Makes sense, doesn’t it?
They are going to shwack those F-16s like low-hanging fruit.
Iran’s Underground Missile Cities
This is the biggest miss of the night. Israel did not touch Iran’s underground facilities. The Iranians have let us know since 2015 that they’ve been moving everything into the mountains and deep underground. They know that Western doctrine requires air superiority and relies on bombing the heck out of a defenseless opponent.
Most of Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities are now in vast galleries of stone, a quarter of a mile deep.
US planners worry that it will take nuclear weapons to destroy them. All the “bunker busters” we’ve given the Israelis won’t do it.
Figure 1 shows stockpiles of warheads in an Iranian underground missile base. This video – Iran’s secret missile cities – is a tour through the facilities. To the best of our knowledge, the Iranians have at least three underground missile factories that were not touched by this Israeli strike. Think about that when the mainstream media exhibit satellite photos with a couple of damaged buildings. The Iranians have tens of missile armories and underground launch bases.
Israel might want us to believe Iran’s missile capability has been destroyed, but as Clint Eastwood said in The Outlaw Josey Wales, “Don’t p__s down my back and tell me it’s raining.”
Figure 3 was shot inside an Iranian “missile city” built just inland from the Persian Gulf Coast. It’s got supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles and anti-ship ballistic missiles. They can all be fired while standing off from the coast. They are immune to naval air attack and naval gunfire.
Figure 3. Anti-ship cruise missiles in an underground missile city inland from the Persian Gulf
If we go up against those, we are going to lose surface combatants.
Iran has drone factories and armories underground. Figure 4 shows an underground drone factory that is part of an Iranian underground air base (yes, they have those too).
Figure 4. Iranian drones manufactured and stored in an underground facility
The Iranian Air Force is the weakest of Iran’s armed forces. Although it is taking delivery of new Flanker variants from Russia, it still operates American F-14s dating from the time of the Shah. Those are equipped with air-launched cruise missiles. It was one such that the USS Vincennes thought it was engaging when it shot down an Iranian Airbus. In typical humble fashion, the Iranians waited a whole year before downing a Pan Am 747 over Lockerbie, Scotland. Iran prizes the airframes it has and has built underground air bases in the mountains, like the one shown in Figure 5.
Figure 5. Underground hangars and taxiways a quarter mile under a mountain of rock
The Iranians’ primary air defense weapon is the S-300PMU2, purchased from Russia. However, it is not a plain-vanilla S-300PMU2. The Iranians upgraded it with indigenous improvements. Remember that the S-300PM3 was renamed the S-400. Russia has supplied Iran with advanced S-400s and highly sophisticated radars. Russia has supplied electronic warfare equipment like the Murmansk BN, complete with Russian operators. Just like we have supplied Israel with THAAD batteries and US operators.
Cameron Curtis has spent thirty years in the financial markets as a trader and risk manager. He was on the trade floor when Saddam’s tanks rolled into Kuwait, when the air wars opened over Baghdad and Belgrade, and when the financial crisis swallowed the world. He’s studied military affairs and warfare all his adult life. His popular Breed series of military adventure thrillers are admired for combining deep expertise with propulsive action. The premises are realistic, the stories adrenaline-fuelled and emotionally engaging.
Editor’s Note: Can you believe the holiday shopping season is upon us already? You’re in luck, I have the perfect give suggestion for anyone on your list who would love a good (make that GREAT) action thriller. Give the gift of Breed! –GDM
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