Even before the Israeli planes landed, the Israelis did the only thing they could. Still shaking from the experience, they declared victory. “We won, great success.” They declared victory while observers were still waiting for the second wave. Because the first two waves were launched so close together, they looked like one.
What’s wrong with the “alternate narrative?” While there is no question about the NSA leak and the mayhem it played with the Israeli plan, the story of the unknown engagement radar relies on anonymous Israeli sources. Anonymous because if true, it has frightening implications, and the Israelis don’t take kindly to leaks. Even so, the entire narrative outlined in this SOFREP article, NSA leak causes feeble Israeli strike on Iran, makes complete sense.
What’s wrong with the Israelis’ mass media narrative?
The Israelis had no choice but to declare victory. It would be too embarrassing to admit the mission was a cluster. The Israelis cannot admit that the balance of power in the region has shifted. This is because the Iranians can penetrate Israeli air defense (as they proved on October 1, Iranian missile swarm overwhelmed Israeli air defense). Israel cannot penetrate Iran’s air defense.
Let’s go through the problems with the mainstream media’s Battle Damage Assessment (BDA)
1. All the targets struck were surface targets. Israel did not strike Iran’s underground missile facilities, which form the bulk of its capability.
2. Per the NSA leak, the strike was conducted with 16 Golden Horizon missiles originally meant for decapitation targets, plus 40 ROCKS missiles to destroy air defense sites (SEAD). This is far too light a force to cause significant damage.
What if there were 80 ROCKS, and 32 Golden Horizons? Well, then the Iranians intercepted more missiles or Israel missed more, because the BDA is not consistent with those numbers.
3. Parchen and Taleghan 2. Notice the media repeatedly state that Taleghan 2 is a former nuclear test building. It hasn’t been used for that purpose for years, if it ever was. What’s it used for now? It’s not nuclear. The IAEA’s been there to inspect it over the years and found nothing. Understand it’s used to assemble MLRS… tactical rocket artillery.
4. Khojir. BDA photos of Khojir are discussed in this SOFREP article, Israel’s secret ALBMs strike Iran. Two buildings were damaged out of fifteen used to house blenders that mix solid rocket fuel. Some photos in the public domain have been cropped so as to show a much smaller number of buildings. All the buildings are set in excavated pits, surrounded by high earthen berms to protect them from explosions in adjacent structures. Rocket fuel plants experience their share of accidental explosions. They are designed to minimize damage from accidents as much as enemy missile attacks. It would have required all 16 Golden Horizons to wipe out the base. The Chinese-manufactured blenders will be willingly replaced. Finally, most of this work has been moved underground.
5. Oil refinery. The Israelis hit one tank out of dozens. And the Israelis announced they did not strike oil and nuclear facilities. Was this a stray missile, or did they hit what they were aiming at?
Hitting that oil refinery had better have been an accident. We’re lucky that one tank they hit didn’t set the whole refinery on fire. Why? The Iranians are ready to blockade the Straits of Hormuz and gift us $200 oil for Christmas. Our “freedom of navigation” exercise can’t keep the Red Sea open against the Houthis – the Israeli Port of Eilat is bankrupt – how are we going to keep the Persian Gulf open?
Dangerous Implications
The real problem with the Israelis’ mass media narrative is this: If we drink our own Kool-Aid, we can talk ourselves into a conflict that escalates far beyond our expectations. We might pursue a strategy of risky escalation at a time when Israel should fight to win conventional wars against Iranian proxies.
Implications for Air Operations Against Iran
Iran did not want to shoot down those F-35i Adirs. It didn’t want to escalate. The Iranians could have killed those Adirs, but they didn’t because Iran did not want to escalate. The Israelis turned back because Israel is extremely casualty-averse.
Next time, maybe Iran will shoot. If we’ve got American and British aircraft attacking with the Israelis, we’re going to lose pilots.
Implications for Air Operations in Ukraine
Ukraine is losing the war, and everyone is panicking. Zelensky’s strategy is to drag NATO into the war. Fire long-range missiles into Russia. Get those F-16s into the air. The Ukrainian pilots are inadequately trained, but there are efforts to recruit F-16 contract pilots in the USA. Maybe, if enough people believe the story that North Koreans are fighting Kursk, they can get South Korean pilots to fly Ukrainian F-16s.
One problem. The F-16 is a fourth-generation fighter in the same class as the MIG-29 and SU-27. All those Ukrainian planes got shot down. Last year, Ukrainian planes were falling out of the sky, shot down in droves by Russian S-400s. Russians have given sophisticated air defense to the Iranians. This “unknown engagement radar” the Israelis encountered was probably battle-tested in Ukraine during 2023. Makes sense, doesn’t it?
They are going to shwack those F-16s like low-hanging fruit.
Iran’s Underground Missile Cities
This is the biggest miss of the night. Israel did not touch Iran’s underground facilities. The Iranians have let us know since 2015 that they’ve been moving everything into the mountains and deep underground. They know that Western doctrine requires air superiority and relies on bombing the heck out of a defenseless opponent.
Most of Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities are now in vast galleries of stone, a quarter of a mile deep.
US planners worry that it will take nuclear weapons to destroy them. All the “bunker busters” we’ve given the Israelis won’t do it.
Figure 1 shows stockpiles of warheads in an Iranian underground missile base. This video – Iran’s secret missile cities – is a tour through the facilities. To the best of our knowledge, the Iranians have at least three underground missile factories that were not touched by this Israeli strike. Think about that when the mainstream media exhibit satellite photos with a couple of damaged buildings. The Iranians have tens of missile armories and underground launch bases.
Israel might want us to believe Iran’s missile capability has been destroyed, but as Clint Eastwood said in The Outlaw Josey Wales, “Don’t p__s down my back and tell me it’s raining.”
Figure 3 was shot inside an Iranian “missile city” built just inland from the Persian Gulf Coast. It’s got supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles and anti-ship ballistic missiles. They can all be fired while standing off from the coast. They are immune to naval air attack and naval gunfire.
If we go up against those, we are going to lose surface combatants.
Iran has drone factories and armories underground. Figure 4 shows an underground drone factory that is part of an Iranian underground air base (yes, they have those too).
The Iranian Air Force is the weakest of Iran’s armed forces. Although it is taking delivery of new Flanker variants from Russia, it still operates American F-14s dating from the time of the Shah. Those are equipped with air-launched cruise missiles. It was one such that the USS Vincennes thought it was engaging when it shot down an Iranian Airbus. In typical humble fashion, the Iranians waited a whole year before downing a Pan Am 747 over Lockerbie, Scotland. Iran prizes the airframes it has and has built underground air bases in the mountains, like the one shown in Figure 5.
The Iranians’ primary air defense weapon is the S-300PMU2, purchased from Russia. However, it is not a plain-vanilla S-300PMU2. The Iranians upgraded it with indigenous improvements. Remember that the S-300PM3 was renamed the S-400. Russia has supplied Iran with advanced S-400s and highly sophisticated radars. Russia has supplied electronic warfare equipment like the Murmansk BN, complete with Russian operators. Just like we have supplied Israel with THAAD batteries and US operators.
We underestimate Iran at our peril.
About the Author
You may reach Cameron at: [email protected]
Cameron Curtis has spent thirty years in the financial markets as a trader and risk manager. He was on the trade floor when Saddam’s tanks rolled into Kuwait, when the air wars opened over Baghdad and Belgrade, and when the financial crisis swallowed the world. He’s studied military affairs and warfare all his adult life. His popular Breed series of military adventure thrillers are admired for combining deep expertise with propulsive action. The premises are realistic, the stories adrenaline-fuelled and emotionally engaging.
Check out the books here: Cameron Curtis’s Amazon Page
Editor’s Note: Can you believe the holiday shopping season is upon us already? You’re in luck, I have the perfect give suggestion for anyone on your list who would love a good (make that GREAT) action thriller. Give the gift of Breed! –GDM
COMMENTS