Dialing it Down

An Israeli official disclosed that early Friday, April 19th, Israel launched airstrikes within Iranian territory, responding to a barrage of missiles and drones that Iran had deployed the previous Saturday. The scale of the assault was modest, and the damage remains uncertain.

The official, who requested anonymity to speak about sensitive defense issues, indicated the strikes were a signal to Iran, demonstrating Israel’s capacity for reaching targets within its borders.

The recent incidents mark a high point in the tensions that escalated after an Israeli operation hit an Iranian diplomatic facility in Damascus, Syria, followed by Tehran’s retaliatory strike on Israeli soil. Many experts see Friday’s restrained response as part of both nations’ efforts to dial down the tensions.

Russian Involvement

Amid these developments, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted that Iran, which maintains close relations with Moscow, had initiated contact to mitigate the situation.

“Telephone interactions between Russia’s and Iran’s leaders, our delegates, and the Israelis have occurred. We observed in these discussions — and relayed to the Israelis — that Iran is not seeking an escalation,” Lavrov stated.

The Iranian media played down the attack, reporting that their air defenses had intercepted “three small drones“ in Isfahan province, a location with significant military and nuclear facilities. The strike, however, seemed minor given Israel’s capabilities.

While Israel remains reticent post-attack and Iran minimizes its significance, both sides seem to hope that their actions thus far might suffice to appease domestic pressures without necessitating further escalation.

Security analyst Charles Miller from the Australian National University speculated, “I think we will be surprised, and things might wind down. Both parties are more interested in showing action without engaging in overly provocative behaviors.”

Similarly, analysts believe Tehran’s preceding attack, which involved a significant display of missiles and drones with substantial forewarning, was intended to be visually dramatic yet minimize casualties and damage.

Discussing the incident, Sanam Vakil from Chatham House noted that Iran’s measured response aimed to display a broad range of capabilities throughout the region, mirroring Israel’s capability demonstration on Friday.

No damage to nuclear sites was reported, confirmed the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi, Iran’s army chief, stated that the blasts in Isfahan were caused by the anti-aircraft systems intercepting a suspicious object, with no resultant damage, as per the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA).

Social media reports of explosions started around 4 a.m. local time. Iranian military officials confirmed the activation of air defenses in the region, specifically using a system at a military base in Isfahan for interception.

The Group of Seven Urges Restraint

The Group of Seven major democracies, through Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, urged both nations to de-escalate. Tajani revealed that Israel had informed the U.S. just before the strike. “The United States was informed at the last minute, and there was no involvement on the part of the United States,“ he said, noting that the attack’s limited scale was “the result of the efforts of the G-7.”

Under pressure from allies, including the Biden administration, to show restraint and prevent a regional conflict, Israel has indicated its readiness to respond militarily to Iran’s offensive actions. Still, it seeks to avoid significant casualties or damage that might provoke a severe response from Tehran.

An Israeli official, speaking anonymously, indicated that the attack was “carefully calibrated.”

Israel’s war cabinet has been considering various targeted responses suggested by the Israel Defense Forces, aiming to deter Iran without provoking a major retaliation.

Public commentary from Israeli military and government officials has been absent following the attack. The military issued no alerts for civilians to take cover or take extraordinary measures as the nation approached the Passover holiday.

Iran Reports Nothing out of the Ordinary

Iran’s response has been subdued. Broadcasts show calm scenes in the central city of Isfahan under headlines stating,

“The situation is normal.”

Meanwhile, Iranian news outlets also reported sounds of explosions over Tabriz, though their connection to the Israeli strike was not immediately clear.

Flight operations from several airports in Iran were briefly halted following reports of the explosions, with Iranian media attributing the disruptions to the regional airspace closure similar to the previous week when Iran executed drone and missile strikes on Israel. Normal flight operations resumed later in the morning, as Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization confirmed.

Early Friday, Syria’s state news agency reported that Israel had launched an overnight missile attack targeting air defense sites in southern Syria, causing some damage.

Some Israelis, particularly hawkish figures, had been calling for a strong military response to Iran’s attack on Israeli territory last Saturday, intercepted primarily by Israeli, U.S., and Jordanian forces, which resulted in minor injuries from falling debris.

The extent to which the limited actions over Iran will satisfy these calls remains uncertain.

Israeli officials adhered to a gag order following the strike. However, Tally Gotliv, a prominent member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party, hinted at the event on social media, stating, “Good morning, people of Israel. This is a morning in which the head is held high with pride.”

This is a developing story. Check back later with SOFREP for  more details.