Israel-Hamas War SITREP: An Alarming Escalation of Tensions

Actions From Gaza

Yesterday, October 22, 2023, Palestinian militant groups from the Gaza Strip launched a steady stream of attacks on Israel. The al Qassem Brigades, the military arm of Hamas, acknowledged carrying out 12 assaults through direct and indirect fire. Concurrently, Saraya al Quds, the combatant faction of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), accepted responsibility for an additional trio of rocket assaults. This level of aggression aligns with the recent trends.

The Palestinian militant factions operating from the Gaza Strip have heightened their focus on targeting the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), likely aligning with their strategic preparation to counter a potential Israeli ground incursion. This shift is reflected in a higher ratio of military-targeted attacks out of the total, a trend not seen since October 18, when the IDF positions near the Gaza Strip were aimed at 15 times by the militias. On that date, October 22, eight directed and indirect assaults were launched at the IDF.

Additionally, the militias fired mortars and rockets toward Israeli urban areas in seven distinct instances. During combat operations within the Gaza Strip, members of the al-Qassem Brigades engaged with the IDF, resulting in the fatality of one Israeli soldier and injuries to three others. According to the IDF, the skirmish occurred while Israeli troops were on a mission to recover the remains of missing Israelis and laying the groundwork for a prospective ground operation by Israel.

Documented Reports of Rocket Attacks

Activity in the West Bank

On October 22, the West Bank saw a significant reduction, approximately by half, in confrontations between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces, with nine separate clashes reported by the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War (CTP-ISW). A notable skirmish unfolded in Qabatiya, near Jenin, where militants from the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade engaged with Israeli troops, employing small arms and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in the confrontation.

The day also saw a continuation of public demonstrations, albeit at a modest scale, with two protests recorded by CTP-ISW in the West Bank. This reflects a consistent trend from the previous day, October 21, despite calls from Hamas urging global demonstrations in solidarity with the Gaza Strip. It appears that these calls did not significantly bolster protest activities in the West Bank.

Meanwhile, Israeli forces sustained their operational tempo in the West Bank, conducting raids and apprehending individuals. On October 22, a total of 46 Palestinians were arrested, among them 27 individuals identified as active Hamas members and a pair of military leaders affiliated with the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, specifically in the region south of Jenin.

Iran’s Proxy Army

The Golan Heights and Lebanon

Also, 0n October 22, amidst a heightened conflict, 17 assaults were orchestrated by Iranian-backed groups, including the Lebanese Hezbollah, against the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). This surge in aggression aligns with an earlier noted uptick in hostilities since October 15. The campaign has opened up avenues for more ground incursions into Israel by Iranian-supported factions, escalating tensions further. Lebanese Hezbollah’s unprecedented act of launching surface-to-air missiles against an IDF helicopter and an attempted drone infiltration from Lebanon marked new fronts in the ongoing discord. Anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) were primarily used from Lebanon, prompting retaliatory strikes by Israel against the ATGM squads.

Israel, in a bid to safeguard civilians, broadened the evacuation perimeters along its border with Lebanon, adding 14 towns to the zone, a step up from its prior evacuations within a two-kilometer radius from the border.

Various Iranian-backed militias, with Lebanese Hezbollah’s likely approval due to its significant influence in southern Lebanon, have been actively engaging Israeli forces. The involvement of al Qassem Brigades and Saraya al Quds is significant, with attacks on northern Israeli towns and reported casualties among their ranks in southern Lebanon.

Reuters reports suggest a mutual Iranian agreement on limited cross-border aggressions by Lebanese Hezbollah into Israel. The aim appears to distract the IDF, paving the way for ground maneuvers into the Gaza Strip, thereby broadening the conflict’s scope.

On the same day, Israeli airstrikes targeted runways at Damascus and Aleppo international airports, extending its earlier assaults aimed at thwarting Iran‘s military supply channels into the region. The retaliatory actions from unidentified factions included indirect fire into the Golan Heights, symbolizing a recurrent pattern of reaction to Israeli airstrikes into Syria.

The situation escalated further with the arrival of IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani in Syria on October 21, as reported by Israeli media, to oversee Iranian-backed militias along the Israel-Syria frontier. The positioning of these militias in southern Lebanon and southwestern Syria signifies a broader Iran-led strategy, possibly setting the stage for a regional skirmish. Statements from Iranian state-affiliated personnel hinted at using Syria as a secondary front if the conflict escalates.

Lebanese political figures display a divergence in stance over Lebanon’s potential role in the escalating Israel-Hamas conflict. Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s optimism towards restoring normalcy contrasts Foreign Affairs Minister Abdallah Bou Habib’s grave concerns, spotlighting the precarious nature of the situation. Amid calls for a ceasefire, the looming threat of a more extensive conflict heralds grim prospects, reminiscent of the losses from the 2006 Lebanon-Israel war, yet potentially more devastating.

The Axis of Resistance

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an alliance of militias with Iranian backing, orchestrated a drone assault on the Ain al Asad air base in Iraq yesterday, targeting US forces. This event marked the fifth day of such hostilities aimed at US personnel in the Middle East region. Since October 18, this coalition has taken responsibility for nine drone and rocket strikes against US forces stationed in Iraq and Syria, with nearly half of these attacks zeroing in on the Ain al Asad air base. These continuous assaults are perceived as a part of Iran’s broader strategy to hinder the United States from extending substantial support to Israel, as previously analyzed by CTP-ISW. Further exacerbating the tense situation, on October 20, the Iranian-aligned Iraqi militia group, Kataib Hezbollah, issued threats of more strikes against US positions.

Houthi Influence

Yesterday, the Houthi Prime Minister intended to direct attacks on Israeli vessels in the Red Sea, contingent on Israel’s continued military engagements in the Gaza Strip. This declaration followed a discussion with Palestinian militia representatives in Sanaa, Yemen, a day prior. Additionally, he recognized that on October 19, US forces had intercepted Houthi-launched drones and missiles over the Red Sea aimed at Israel, albeit claiming some reached their intended targets. Despite these claims, no evidence of Houthi drone or missile impacts within Israel has been observed by CTP-ISW. Notably, the Houthi Prime Minister, a southern Yemeni, stands apart from the core Houthi Movement, traditionally composed of northern Yemenis, indicating a lack of inclusion in the group’s central leadership.