Note: This post is part of a multi-part series on the status of Russian security efforts for the Olympics. The purpose of this series is to keep SOFREP readers informed on the latest developments regarding the games as they draw closer.

Amidst Russia’s extensive security preparations for the Winter Games, it remains to be seen whether or not the Russian security measures are capable of preventing or at least temporarily disrupting the high terrorist threat originating from the North Caucasus.

As SOFREP previously reported, various nefarious actors undoubtedly possess the intent and capability to disrupt the games and will likely dedicate much time and effort to create a black eye for Putin by gaining a political victory for their grievances and followings.

BACKGROUND

When considering the historical data regarding terrorist trends and violence originating from the North Caucasus, the decision to host the games in such close proximity to an active insurgency and volatile region is highly relevant.  According to reporting from the Crisis Group, “armed conflict in the North Caucasus is the most violent in Europe today,” with over 1,200 people killed in 2012, and over 240 killed and 250 wounded from January to June of 2013. Analysis from The Institute for the Study of Violent Groups (ISVG) reports the majority of these attacks were perpetrated against law enforcement officials, followed by civilians, then military, and finally, government targets.