The Balkans at a Crossroads: Examining the Complexities of Kosovo’s Unilateral Actions

Renewed clashes in Kosovo have gained the attention of the international community. Compared to previous provocations, the conflicts on May 29th saw dozens of NATO troops from the Kosovo Force (KFOR), Serbian civilians, and Kosovar police.

What Caused the Renewed Tensions?

The recent tensions in Kosovo came against the backdrop where ethnic Albanian mayors took up their government positions in municipalities historically governed by Serbians. The move is seen by Kosovo Serbs, the Serbian government, and now NATO as provocative as Pristina forcefully moved into the northern regions without permission from the West. The unilateral decision has made integration of the unilateral state much more challenging going forward.

Though KFOR has usually been able to ease tensions in the past, the move by Pristina has backed the policies of the West into a corner. It can be seen as a propaganda victory for Russia and China regarding the status of Kosovo.

How did KFOR and the US Respond?

The United States has seen the municipality gamble by the Kosovar authorities as a unilateral move without the approval of the State Department and KFOR. For this, Kosovo was excluded from the Defender 23 exercises this year.

Along with dropping Kosovo from the exercise, Pristina’s international recognition has been indefinitely halted by Washington. Kosovo officials have been suspended from entering the US, and American diplomats will not visit the state indefinitely.

The move is the harshest punishment meant to Kosovo by America yet as Washington looks to keep Vucic’s decades-long hold over Belgrade under their sphere for as long as possible.

Vucic, a former information minister for Milosevic, was propped into power by the West and is both feeling pressure from the Serbian populace, along with Albanians in Kosovo, for his smoke-and-mirrors politics with both Europe and Russia. Using the West’s power balance system they implemented post-Yugoslav Wars, Vucic looks to get as many concessions from the international community as possible.

To supplement the heightened tensions, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced 700 troops to reinforce the KFOR mission.

How Serbia Responded

The unilateral decision to open the municipalities has led to rage amongst the Serbs in the region, who have not fully integrated with the Kosovars. Already boycotting elections that backfired on them, akin to the Sunnis in Iraq against the Shiites, the Serbs are most likely to end communication with Pristina once again.

Vucic has ordered several military units close to the border, but this is more of a show of force than actual deployment. Vucic has become increasingly unpopular in Serbia and is seen as a thorn by his neighbors.

Masked individuals affiliated with Serbia’s far-right have often been inflating tensions to provoke Albanians into post-haste unilateral actions, which US Forces embedded within the KFOR mission confirmed. The Americans in KFOR also confirmed several NATO forces injured in the clashes were from gunfire, showing the ‘protestors’ were more organized than believed and could be linked directly to Vucic.

The recent tensions have been a gift for Belgrade‘s ruling government to cater to the more far-right and ultranationalist elements. At the same time, they continue to play cavalier politics as funding from the European Union and Washington keeps their economy afloat to pull the last of the Balkan states into their fold.

If there's one video you need to watch about the recent events in northern Kosovo, it's this.

American NATO soldier tells the truth about the attacks on NATO soldiers to the face of Srpska Lista senior officials.

Srpska Lista is directly controlled by Serbia's regime. pic.twitter.com/qTy1QiBGKR

— Admirim (@admirim) June 1, 2023

Tensions are Very Unlikely to Lead to War

Despite the rise in tensions that caused several dozen KFOR casualties, a new war is doubtful to occur soon. Serbia was demilitarized post-Kosovo War with few advancements in the defense sector in the last two decades.

Serbia’s demographics have declined, with many Serbs emigrating to Europe and America for better economic opportunities, leaving their military to nothing more than a self-defense force.

Nevertheless, renewed nationalistic fever works for Vucic, and the constant placating of his office by the US and EU has only encouraged him to inflame tensions in the region.

Remedying Incidents in the Future

The Kosovar government, the Serbs of the region, and the international community all have multiple lessons to learn from the tensions. For Pristina, which has worked hard towards global recognition and acknowledgment, unilateral decisions without consulting its backers can result in setbacks in government.

Until Kosovo has majority recognition in the United Nations and a solid path to EU membership and NATO partnership, the ruling government must be careful not to overstep its boundaries.

For the Kosovo Serbs, also have to realize boycotting elections only backs them into a corner even more. When the Sunnis of Iraq boycotted the elections post-Saddam, it only allowed the Shiites to clean-sweep critical positions. It only led to renewed fighting and sectarianism—something that can quickly occur in Kosovo.

America also has to realize placating longtime strongmen can backfire, and at times, their policies can inflame tensions. Attempting to subvert Russian influence by placating two governments with hostile relations negate the overall vision the State Department wants for the region. Like Cyprus in the 70s, the ‘both sides’ politics ultimately led to a conflict that spiraled out of control.

Nevertheless, a continued presence of peacekeepers in the KFOR mission is essential, but underlying unilateral actions by Pristina and ultranationalist rhetoric by Belgrade will continue to open the wounds of the past. Eventually, the US and EU will have to take a side instead of rewarding provocative actions in the Balkans.

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** Check out Kosovo,What Everyone Needs to Know.