It Benefits Russian Defenses

The destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam directly benefits Russia the most. According to a November 11, 2022 report by the Kremlin-owned TASS news agency, Russia had filled Crimea’s water reservoirs for two years, giving them the contingency of blowing the structure in preparation for a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Ukraine has increasingly put pressure on the Zaporizhzhia oblast to shape a potential offensive towards Melitopol and Mariupol to split the Russian invasion force in half and put Crimea under fire control.

Now that the dam is destroyed, Russia can temporarily deploy a substantial Kherson garrison to other theaters under pressure, such as the ‘grey zones’ of Zaporizhzhia, Bakhmut, and the increasingly under-pressure Belgorod oblast. The flooding delays a potential ZSU bridgehead crossing due to the humanitarian catastrophe, while Moscow has the opportunity to continue bolstering their already increasingly spread-thin military.

The Kremlin has Implemented Deliberate Dam Destruction in the Past.

Destroying infrastructure to cover their military under pressure has been a hallmark of the Russian army since the Napoleonic Wars. In 1941, the Soviets purposely killed tens of thousands of citizens to delay the German advance in Ukraine.

At the Zaporizhzhia Dam, which flows water through the Dnipro River, the Red Army escorted Ukrainian civilians across the River to reach safety. The NKVD, Stalin’s secret police, were ordered to blow up the dam, but only when everyone had crossed. The intelligence service received orders from Stalin to blow the dam early, which they did, flooding the oblast and killing anywhere between 20000-50000 civilians and army personnel.

Boris Epov and Aleksandr Petrovsky, the NKVD officers in charge of the operation, rushed to the dam’s explosion due to their fear of Stalin and that they would be executed for refusing to follow orders and wait for the rest of the citizens to be evacuated. Both the Kremlin and the Ukrainian Communist Party (now banned) refused to honor the dead from the tragedy as it would make Moscow and Stalin’s image look extremely bad that they were willing to sacrifice tens of thousands of their citizens for borrowed time.

The dam in the southern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia is shown after being blown up by Stalin’s secret police in 1941. From 20,000 to 100,000 people died in the ensuing flood. Via Wikimedia Commons and RFEL.

It Shows Ukraine’s “Whack-a-mole” Strategy is Devastating

Russia’s desperate efforts to cover their tracks also display Ukraine’s current military strategy of spreading their enemy thin has devastating effects on the Kremlin. Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) has a central strategy of increasing assassinations and cross-border raids by Russian dissidents to force Russia to commit their already decimated military to regions that haven’t seen combat.

The strategy coincides with Ukraine’s war of attrition in the battles of Mariupol, Severodonetsk, and Bakhmut. Russia has expended its logistics and troops in these battles, which also indirectly crippled their war effort as they now have to commit forces across a 2300 KM border, allowing the ZSU to strike at weak points along the defenses.

Russia Is Making Sure if They Can’t Have Ukraine, neither Can Ukrainians

Increasingly under international pressure along with a decimated military and economic stagnation under sanctions, the Kremlin has slowly released that the war will not end on the terms they expected it to. Over the past year, the Russian Ministry of Defense has resorted to its older doctrine of scorched earth tactics.

War crimes such as massacres in Bucha and Izium, carpet bombings of cities, and an attempt to freeze tens of millions of civilians the last winter have now become the hallmark of Russia. With dreams of a Neo-Russian Empire fading, Putin instead makes the lives of Ukrainians hell if they deny him his plans of “Novorossiya.”

The More Russia Escalates, the More Ukraine will be Supported

Nevertheless, the more Russia escalates, the worse the war will become for them. Ukraine’s weapon systems given to their allies have reciprocated Russian aggression and provocations.

When Russian Forces carpet-bombed Mariupol and committed the Bucha Massacre, Ukraine was given HIMARS later that spring. When Russia resorted to indiscriminate Shahid drone attacks and attempted to freeze Ukraine, modern Western tanks and air defense systems were delivered to Kyiv.

After the International Criminal Court indicted Putin for kidnapping and deporting thousands of Ukrainian children, Ukraine received the green light for long-range missiles such as Storm Shadows and Western F-16s. The ball of escalation has always been in Russia’s court, and the more they provoke instead of withdrawing, the more sanctions and military casualties the nation will suffer.

The destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam was an act of desperation by a failing autocrat who thinks of himself as a reincarnated Peter the Great and a nation that still lives in a mindset of rite of passage for territorial conquest. These acts of desperation will not deter Ukraine nor Western support but make it even more likely Ukraine’s defense and membership in the European Union and NATO will be solidified by the war’s end.