The Nagorno-Karabakh Flashpoint: What’s Behind the New Azerbaijan-Armenia Skirmishes?

In a dramatic escalation of tensions, Azerbaijan’s defense ministry has initiated “anti–terrorist” operations in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which remains under Armenian control.
This move comes after months of simmering hostilities in the region, recognized internationally as part of Azerbaijan. The situation has raised concerns as it threatens to reignite a long-standing conflict between these neighboring nations, both of which have previously gone to war over Nagorno-Karabakh in the early 1990s and, more recently, in 2020.

At a Breaking Point Once More

The recent events have been marked by reports of casualties on both sides, including the tragic loss of eleven Azerbaijani police and civilians in a mine blast and another incident. Air raid sirens have also been reported in the central city of Karabakh.

Defense officials in the breakaway region have accused the Azerbaijani military of violating the ceasefire by launching missile artillery strikes, characterizing it as a “large-scale military offensive.”

The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry has been actively involved in diplomatic efforts to ease tensions, emphasizing the need for Armenia and the breakaway regime to cease actions that obstruct the normalization process.

Azerbaijan’s Concerns and Calls for Restraint

The ministry decried the recent “presidential elections” held in the region as provocative and pointed out that over 10,000 Armenian armed forces remain loyal to the so-called regime in Karabakh, equipped with significant military assets, including tanks, artillery, and mortar systems.

The Azerbaijani ministry further asserted that Yerevan is preparing for a new attack, raising concerns about the potential for further escalation.

Like any other nation, Azerbaijan has underlined its right to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity in accordance with international law. It called on Armenia to halt its military activities, abandon its “revengeful plans,” and cease violations of Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Additionally, Azerbaijan urged Armenia to stop supporting separatism and terrorism within the Karabakh region.

Divergent Narratives and Safety Concerns: Armenians in the Crossfire

On the other side of the conflict, the Armenian defense ministry refuted claims of systematic shelling by Armenian forces, insisting that the allegations did not correspond with reality. This divergence in accounts has added to the complexity of the situation.

As reports of artillery fire and gunfire emanate from the Karabakh regional capital, Khankendi (known as Stepanakert by Armenians), it is essential to consider the approximately 120,000 ethnic Armenians living in this mountainous enclave. Their safety remains a significant concern amid the renewed hostilities.

Meanwhile, officials in Armenia have declared the situation along the country’s borders as “relatively stable” as of a particular time, further highlighting the unpredictability of events on the ground.

Azerbaijan is shelling civilian residential areas of #Stepanakert This is a building next to us with no military target in vicinity. pic.twitter.com/EZtJsAEBNg

— Siranush Sargsyan (@SiranushSargsy1) September 19, 2023

Quick Recap: Events Leading to the Latest Nagorno-Karabakh Crisis

The recent flare-up began in the fall of 2020 when Azerbaijan launched a military campaign that liberated several cities, villages, and settlements previously occupied by Armenian forces during a 44-day conflict. The war ended with a Russia-brokered ceasefire, but tensions have persisted. Notably, since December, Azerbaijan has effectively blockaded the only route into Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia, known as the Lachin Corridor, further straining relations between the two countries.

Then, in April this year, Azerbaijan’s decision to open a checkpoint on a key highway raised tensions in the Nagorno-Karabakh region to new heights. While Azerbaijan claimed it was necessary to intercept and deter military shipments from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh, protests erupted, and it became apparent that the true intention was to block Armenian passage.

Armenia and ethnic Armenian leaders in Nagorno-Karabakh strongly condemned the checkpoint, asserting that Azerbaijan aimed to isolate Karabakh Armenians and solidify its control over the region.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that the ceasefire has been enforced by approximately 3,000 Russian peacekeepers, who are currently occupied with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan recently expressed concerns that Russia was “spontaneously leaving the region,” adding a layer of uncertainty to the situation.

Zakharova, announced the participation of “Armenian armed formations” in the conflict.

Russia calls on Armenia and Azerbaijan to stop hostilities and return to a diplomatic settlement, Zakharova said.

Moscow is alarmed by the sharp escalation of the situation, noted the… pic.twitter.com/dDkfB1iKUQ

— S p r i n t e r F a c t o r y (@Sprinterfactory) September 19, 2023

In an effort to address the humanitarian aspects of the crisis, Azerbaijan permitted aid from the International Committee of the Red Cross to enter Karabakh via two roads, one through the Lachin Corridor from Armenia and the other via Azerbaijan’s Aghdam road.

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The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh remains highly fluid and volatile, with potential regional and international implications. The case remains delicate despite international mediation and diplomatic initiatives involving not only Russia but also the United States and the European Union. Especially with the many complex issues and historical grievances Azerbaijan and Armenia have to address.

As both sides trade accusations and tensions continue to rise, it is crucial for all parties involved, as well as the international community, to pursue diplomatic avenues for de-escalation and a lasting peace agreement to prevent further loss of life and instability in the region.