The Nagorno-Karabakh Flashpoint: What’s Behind the New Azerbaijan-Armenia Skirmishes?

In a dramatic escalation of tensions, Azerbaijan’s defense ministry has initiated “anti–terrorist” operations in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which remains under Armenian control.
This move comes after months of simmering hostilities in the region, recognized internationally as part of Azerbaijan. The situation has raised concerns as it threatens to reignite a long-standing conflict between these neighboring nations, both of which have previously gone to war over Nagorno-Karabakh in the early 1990s and, more recently, in 2020.

At a Breaking Point Once More

The recent events have been marked by reports of casualties on both sides, including the tragic loss of eleven Azerbaijani police and civilians in a mine blast and another incident. Air raid sirens have also been reported in the central city of Karabakh.

Defense officials in the breakaway region have accused the Azerbaijani military of violating the ceasefire by launching missile artillery strikes, characterizing it as a “large-scale military offensive.”

The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry has been actively involved in diplomatic efforts to ease tensions, emphasizing the need for Armenia and the breakaway regime to cease actions that obstruct the normalization process.

Azerbaijan’s Concerns and Calls for Restraint

The ministry decried the recent “presidential elections” held in the region as provocative and pointed out that over 10,000 Armenian armed forces remain loyal to the so-called regime in Karabakh, equipped with significant military assets, including tanks, artillery, and mortar systems.

The Azerbaijani ministry further asserted that Yerevan is preparing for a new attack, raising concerns about the potential for further escalation.

Like any other nation, Azerbaijan has underlined its right to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity in accordance with international law. It called on Armenia to halt its military activities, abandon its “revengeful plans,” and cease violations of Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Additionally, Azerbaijan urged Armenia to stop supporting separatism and terrorism within the Karabakh region.

Divergent Narratives and Safety Concerns: Armenians in the Crossfire

On the other side of the conflict, the Armenian defense ministry refuted claims of systematic shelling by Armenian forces, insisting that the allegations did not correspond with reality. This divergence in accounts has added to the complexity of the situation.

As reports of artillery fire and gunfire emanate from the Karabakh regional capital, Khankendi (known as Stepanakert by Armenians), it is essential to consider the approximately 120,000 ethnic Armenians living in this mountainous enclave. Their safety remains a significant concern amid the renewed hostilities.

Meanwhile, officials in Armenia have declared the situation along the country’s borders as “relatively stable” as of a particular time, further highlighting the unpredictability of events on the ground.