The latest news from the front in Ukraine is that the Russian offensive into Donbas is stalling as well.  The Russian army, after seeing its most effective combat formations shot to pieces attempting a combined arms offensive along at least five routes of advance, attempted to reposition its forces and renew offensive operations on a more limited scale in Donbas and Luhansk.  It also sought the reduction of Mariupol in order to advance on Odesa and cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea, effectively crippling its economy in the future.

Russia is Losing and it Knows it

What we have seen recently is a sharp increase in the number of casualties to Russian forces in the region without any appreciable gain in territory. In fact, in some places, Ukrainian forces are advancing and pushing the Russians back. The airspace over Ukraine remains contested, the Russians don’t seem to have the inventory on hand in terms of missiles and bombs to systematically destroy Ukraine’s command and control structure, communications, transportation network, and manufacturing assets. Instead, they are just pouring troops into a meat grinder hoping that the sheer weight of numbers will win out.

In this fight, Ukraine enjoys three major advantages:

First, billions in military aid are pouring into the country to replace what is lost or expended in combat, allowing them to maintain operational combat power.  As their combat formations gain experience they become more and more effective, while Russian units are being destroyed before they can gain this kind of experience for themselves.