The Current Situation

Here is the most current information regarding various aspects of Russia’s war on Ukraine as reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW):

On June nineteenth, the Russians continued their targeted drone and missile strikes in southern Ukraine. ISW reports that according to Ukrainian General Staff sources, four each Shahed-131/136 drones and an equal number of Kalibr  (NATO: SS-N-30A Sizzler) cruise missiles were launched toward targets in the south and were effectively brought down by Ukrainian air defenses. A Russian submarine located in the Black Sea was used to launch the cruise missiles. The drones originated from a location on the Sea of Azov.

Russian Campaign Assessment Map, current as of 19 JUN 23, shared with permission from The Institute for the Study of War.

Meanwhile, in Bakhmut, indigenous sources on the ground report that Ukrainian forces maintained successful counteroffensives to the southwest, northeast, and northwest of that city. Satellite imagery shows that the town of Pyatykhatky, in western Zaporizhia Oblast, was liberated by Ukrainian troops immediately prior to the nineteenth.

Intelligence reports from the UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) indicate that the Dnipro Group of Forces (DGF) has been deployed by Russia from Kherson Oblast toward Zaporizhia in the past week and a half with the intent of addressing counteroffensives launched by Ukrainian forces.

In the Russian military, a “group of forces,” such as the DGF, represents a specific type of large, task-oriented unit. In this instance, the DGF was formed to push back the Ukrainians and halt any progress made by their counteroffensive efforts.

Regarding this Force, the UK Ministry of Defense is quoted as saying:

“The existence of an apparently new DGF suggest that the original force organisation has evolved, probably due to heavy losses. DGF’s mission is likely to defend the southern sector of the occupied zone, and especially the south-western flank which is currently marked by the Dnipro river.”

In Other Concurrent Operations:

  • Various sources report that in Simferopol, Crimea, a government official of Zaporizhia Oblast was killed in a car explosion.
  • The Russians made solid advances in the area of Kupyansk in the Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Russian forces carried out a small number of ground attacks around Bakhmut.
  • Numbers in the Wagner Group are reportedly dwindling, necessitating new recruiting efforts by the Russian paramilitary organization.

Trench Warfare