US Military Exercises in Armenia Ignite Russian Backlash

An ongoing joint military exercise involving a small number of American and Armenian troops at a base in the Yerevan suburbs has stirred up Russian backlash.

The 11-day exercise, called Eagle Partner, runs through July 24. The US European Command designed it to enhance interoperability between the US and Armenia during peacekeeping and stability operations.

Timing and Symbolism

The number of troops involved isn’t what has Russian officials upset. It’s the timing and symbolism of the exercise. Armenia’s geopolitical shift away from Russia towards the West, especially after losing Nagorno-Karabakh, is a significant factor. This exercise is a clear indicator of that shift.

US Ambassador said to Armenia Kristina Kvien at the opening ceremony on July 15:

“You [US and Armenian troops] are at the forefront of an important and growing relationship and partnership, and our nations thank you for your personal commitment toward ensuring peace, security, and prosperity.”

US-Armenian Cooperation

In addition to the exercise, Armenian media outlet Hetq reported that a resident adviser from the Pentagon will be attached to Armenia’s Ministry of Defense.

The adviser’s duties haven’t been disclosed publicly. Moreover, the US and Armenia are discussing cooperation on building a new nuclear power plant in Armenia. Currently, Russia controls atomic power generation at the Metsamor facility, which has 12 years left in its lifecycle.

Kremlin’s Response

Historically, the intensity of Russian official statements often inversely correlates with Moscow’s ability to achieve its desired outcomes.

The rapid shift of Armenia towards the West, exemplified by Eagle Partner, prompted a strong response from Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova. She portrayed the presence of American forces in the Caucasus as a threat to regional stability, suggesting the US and NATO aimed to disrupt the “fragile balance” and reignite Russian backlash.

Zakharova said:

“The appearance of the Americans in the South Caucasus, we have already seen this repeatedly in various parts of the world, will only fuel the conflict potential persisting in the region, and create new dividing lines, … not only dividing lines, but also hotbeds of conflict.”

Zakharova’s comments highlight the Kremlin‘s alarm over losing influence in Armenia and concerns about the growing US presence disrupting the North-South corridor, a trade network linking Russia and Iran that supports Russia’s sanctions-busting efforts and its war in Ukraine. Moscow might also worry that the US is taking the lead in promoting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Armenia’s Shift Towards the West

Following Azerbaijan’s victory in the Karabakh war in 2023, Armenia has been quick to strengthen ties with the West. Concurrently, Yerevan has distanced itself from Russia, accusing the Kremlin of failing to meet its obligations in Karabakh.

Shortly before Eagle Partner began, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced Armenia’s withdrawal from the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Contrary to Zakharova’s accusations that the US is instigating conflict, US diplomats have been working to revive the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process.

In an interview with Hetq, US Under Secretary of State for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights Uzra Zeya criticized Russia’s peacebuilding efforts in the Caucasus, stating that Washington “sees nothing to indicate that Russia’s military presence contributes to a more peaceful and stable South Caucasus region.”

Russian Limited Response

Despite its apparent influence in Armenia through economic dependency and a military base in Gyumri, Russia’s response to Armenia’s westward shift has been mostly verbal. The burdens of the Ukraine war may be limiting Russia’s ability to act in the Caucasus.

In summary, the joint military exercise Eagle Partner underscores Armenia’s strategic pivot towards the West and the ensuing friction with Russia. The exercise, coupled with US diplomatic efforts, marks a significant shift in regional dynamics, highlighting Armenia’s quest for new alliances and Russian backlash as a result of its struggle to maintain its influence.

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