In any professional military, strategic planning is implemented for contingency plans in various theaters of war. You can have a competent army but simultaneously be caught off guard in combat if your contingencies need to be thoroughly implemented.

The United States, the strongest capable conventional military on Earth, has struggled with unconventional warfare, as nation-building in unstable countries in the Near East was nearly impossible. Today, it is crucial to differentiate a competent military from its contingencies because you can be a ‘great power’ per se but falter in the war due to poor contingency planning.

What is Capability?

In military terminology, a capability is the ability to achieve a desired effect under specific standards and conditions. The core function of a capability is to accomplish a wartime objective with as minor damage to your warfare capabilities as possible.

The Armed Forces of the United States are a textbook example of achieving military capabilities through superior air and naval capabilities. As a part of military science and intelligence, strategic planning amongst commanders attempts to find ways of defeating an enemy with existing or new concepts.

Post-WWII, the United States and its Western European allies attempted to find capabilities for the threat of conventional war with the Soviet Union, which had a near-endless pool of manpower, tanks, and artillery. NATO would incorporate the central strategy of air superiority, which the Soviet Union and modern-day Russia lacked the capabilities of.

Israel, a small yet capable conventional military, adopted aerial supremacy as their primary doctrine against the Arab coalition that vastly outnumbered them. Using decapitation air raids in the Six-Day War, Tel Aviv decisively changed the fate of the modern-day Middle East in their favor and, in less than a week, forced one of the world’s fastest capitulations.

What is a Contingency?

A contingency is a military operation conducted in response to natural disasters, countering terrorist organizations, or a limited armed forces approach against an enemy. The Secretary of Defense (SECDEF) approves all contingency operations for the Armed Forces of America.

Examples of contingency operations of the United States include the combat operations to rescue the Black Hawk pilots in Somalia in 1993 and the drone wars across the Middle East and North Africa during the War on Terror. The United States has not declared war on any nation since World War Two, and for this, most military engagements could be considered ‘contingencies.’

Special Operations Forces raids are also contingency options, giving the President of the United States options to abduct or liquidate high-value targets without sending a large-scale force that could result in numerous civilian casualties.

You Can be a Highly Capable Military Yet Falter in Your Contingency Plans

Competent militaries have historically struggled with their contingencies due to poor planning, negligent leadership, and overestimating battlefield capabilities. The Global War on Terrorism is an example of a contingency that didn’t go according to plan.

Numerous drone strikes and military operations aimed at decapitating terrorist groups worked against the network of global attacks but were not localized. Various issues with local governments, such as corruption and authoritative abuse towards locals, only heightened the recruitment of terrorist organizations. These recruitment abuses occurred in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Mali.

Ideological differences with local governments also veered the course of U.S. contingency plans, particularly in Syria, during the rise of ISIS, the terrorist group committed genocide against various peoples in the Levant and Iraq. Washington, which has a non-standing relationship with Damascus, conducted targeted strikes against the militants and sometimes clashed with Syrian Forces.

Turkey, a NATO member and U.S. ally, initially did not support the bombing and wouldn’t allow American forces to use the Incirlik airbase for the operations. The American public would not accept boots on the ground in Syria due to the ‘forever wars’ that occurred prior, so the call was made to arm and support the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), mainly Kurdish militants.

Despite the partnership between U.S. Forces and the SDF successfully curbing ISIS, Turkey would take slightly to the well-armed Syrian Kurds (due to PKK affiliations) and conduct several military operations against them. The dilemma in Syria has led to increasingly deteriorating ties between Ankara and Washington, and the fracture has given ISIS breathing room, creating a potential blowback on the contingency plans in Syria.

Overall, being a capable military with a global force projection power is essential. Still, if your contingency plans aren’t executed properly, your country can find itself in a geopolitical quagmire in which it did not mean to find itself.