Why Mariupol is Putin’s Top Prize in the Ongoing Conflict in Ukraine

During the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv shocked the world by repelling Moscow’s supposed military prowess from their capital and gaining decisive victories in Kharkiv and Kherson. However, instead of tactical failures, Vladimir Putin order partial mobilization to reinforce their depleted and exhausted professional army.

The introduction of conscripts resulted in minimal success in their offensive operations. Casualties have amassed in the past few months due to Soviet-era tactics of frontal assaults toward fortified positions in the Donbas region. Only the town of Soledar was fully captured in Russia’s “grand” winter offensive.

Rumors have been circulating of Ukraine’s much-anticipated spring counteroffensive. Predicting where the Ukrainian Armed Forces (ZSU) will strike will be hard. Still, the strategically important cities of Melitopol and Mariupol will become of the utmost importance to expel Russian Occupational Forces from the country.

Strategic Importance of Melitopol & Mariupol

Melitopol represents a major railway intersection that Moscow has used the city to supply Russian Forces in the South and East. With the Kerch Bridge still out of commission for the next several months, Melitopol now represents their top priority as a supply line.

With a chance to liberate Melitopol, Russian Forces would be split into two occupational zones—effectively forcing their Ministry of Defense to prioritize their initial goals of complete annexation of the Donbas region or saving what’s left of their army in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts.

Mariupol was arguably the biggest prize for Vladimir Putin in his increasingly disastrous war thus far. The city is adjacent to the Sea of Azov, which the Kremlin prioritized turning into Russia’s own personal lake. This was a major factor in Moscow’s relentless and brutal carpet-bombing tactics during the battle, potentially killing tens of thousands as Russia eventually sought to secure all of Ukraine’s coastline.

Comparing himself to Peter the Great after the city’s capture, Putin has ordered extensive fortifications made to the city. New buildings have been rebuilt for propaganda purposes to show that the “city is alive again,” despite the reality of the standards of living and ever-increasing mass graves proving otherwise.

The South is a Bastion of Russian Collaborators

When Russia fully invaded Ukraine last year, the South was caught off guard. Compared to the heavy casualties inflicted on the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) at Hostomel Airport and the regular army in the North, Russian Forces had taken much of the South with minimal resistance. Bridges that should’ve been blown when Russian Forces crossed into the left bank Dnipro River into Kherson city would later cost Ukraine as the price of liberation came at the cost of thousands of casualties and logistics that could’ve been avoided.

Despite civilian protests in Melitopol in the first weeks of the war, it became apparent that Moscow had an entire network of collaborators in the South that Ukrainian partisans would have to deal with personally. As a result, dozens of assassinations of pro-Russian appointed figures in the occupied territories have taken place—especially in Melitopol and Kherson city pre-liberation.

One could argue Moscow initially wanted to execute the Azov Battalion due to their willingness to fight to the death. With attrition warfare taking place in Mariupol, Azov inflicted tens of thousands of casualties on Russian Forces compared to other Ukrainian units during the first weeks of the war in the South.

Investors Will Be Reluctant To Help Rebuild a Nation in Strife

Akin to the slow progress of reconstruction in Bosnia post-Yugoslav Wars, as long as Russia remains a threat in Ukraine, investors will hesitate to help reconstruct the country. Therefore, expelling Russian Forces will benefit Ukraine’s security and its economic future.

The South is rich in wheat, which Moscow has plundered on various occasions. From here, they resell Ukrainian wheat onto the global market. This not only takes away much-needed capital from Ukrainian farmers, but with the country under a de-facto naval blockade, a southern liberation can bring the nation back fully to the Black Sea.

Liberation Puts Crimea in Firing Range

Liberation of the South is detrimental to future operations against Russia in Crimea. Kyiv will be supplied with Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB) with a range of 150 KM later this year. Along with Ukraine’s new longer-range drones, these systems would put much of Crimea in firing range.

Crimea’s geography offers few ways without advancing forces taking enormous casualties, so Ukraine will likely batter the Black Sea Fleet to make their positions untenable. By doing this, Russia would ultimately be forced to negotiate or withdraw assets from the peninsula, giving their army little close air or naval support.

Kyiv could also cut off Crimea’s garrison from the remaining Russian Forces in Kherson and Donbas. By potentially spearheading into Melitopol, Russia’s invasion force would be cut in half. The garrison on the right bank of Kherson would either attempt to re-link the invasion force or retreat into Crimea in fear of being cut off as well.

A Loss of Either City is Something Putin Cannot Afford

Before the invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin was known as arguably the most feared strongman in the world. With decisive military victories in Chechnya, Georgia, and Syria and one of the world’s largest armies, analysts assumed Ukraine, let alone NATO, would not stand a chance in a modern war against Russia. However, this changed in the past year as Russia’s military prowess was greatly overestimated.

Putin’s top prize in this war thus far has been Mariupol. This was arguably why Russia resorted to scorched-earth methods during the battle to capture the city as quickly as possible, as Putin wanted to enshrine himself in Russian history–no matter how many civilians were killed in the barbaric siege.

By potentially liberating Melitopol, splitting his invasion force in half, and taking back Mariupol, Putin’s aura is at stake amongst his hardliners that have already lost so much due to the Russian President’s ego. Moreover, as seen with the growing infighting amongst the Ministry of Defense and Wagner, along with the increasing number of PMCs, Moscow’s central authority over its subjects is now at a critical stage, and taking Putin’s top prizes away would force the hardliners to start putting the blame directly at the faux Tsar.

Military setbacks and the amassing of over 220,000 casualties have backed Putin into a corner he cannot escape. Without any true objectives, giving Ukraine the tools to liberate the South is now more critical than ever.

The potential liberation of these cities would not only be a major victory but also allow Kyiv to control any future negotiations, as Crimea would now be in striking range. Russia’s total invasion started through the South, and Ukraine will only be truly secure by the liberation of its occupied coastal cities.