Why the Saudis Are Shopping for Fighter Jets (and Why They Can’t Get the F-35)

Saudi Arabia, a nation often at the forefront of Middle Eastern geopolitics, is in the market for advanced fighter jets. Their quest for cutting-edge airpower isn’t exactly a secret, but what’s really making waves is what they can’t get—America’s prized F-35. The reasons behind this denial are as layered as the region’s political landscape, and the ripple effects are being felt in the defense world as Riyadh eyes alternatives.

Let’s break it down.

The F-35: America’s Crown Jewel

The F-35 Lightning II is more than just another fighter jet—it’s the pinnacle of modern air superiority. This fifth-generation stealth fighter combines cutting-edge sensors, advanced radar, and unparalleled data-sharing capabilities to dominate any battlefield it enters. It’s no wonder why so many nations are clamoring to add the F-35 to their arsenals.

But the F-35 isn’t just handed out like party favors at a birthday bash. Countries that want the jet must meet strict U.S. requirements, including ironclad security measures to protect sensitive tech and alignment with American geopolitical interests.

That’s where Saudi Arabia runs into turbulence.

Why the F-35 Is Off the Table for Riyadh

There are several reasons why Saudi Arabia isn’t getting its hands on the F-35, and they’re as much about politics as they are about national security:

The Israel Factor

The Israeli factor is a critical consideration in discussions about selling F-35 fighter jets to Arab nations like the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This factor revolves around maintaining Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge (QME) in the Middle East, a long-standing U.S. policy enshrined in law. The QME ensures Israel retains superior military capabilities compared to its neighbors, which is a cornerstone of U.S. regional strategy.

The F-35, with its stealth technology, supersonic speeds, and advanced sensors, represents a major leap in airpower capabilities. Allowing Arab nations to acquire this cutting-edge aircraft could potentially challenge Israel’s air superiority. To address this, U.S. law requires careful evaluation of arms sales to ensure Israel’s technological advantage is preserved. This involves extensive deliberations between American and Israeli defense experts to implement safeguards that maintain Israel’s QME.

Potential solutions to Israel’s concerns include limiting certain F-35 software capabilities for Arab buyers, providing Israel with exclusive access to enhanced systems, and strengthening U.S.-Israel defense cooperation through joint research and development. Additional measures, such as increasing military aid to Israel or sharing high-level intelligence, are also being considered to reassure Israeli officials.

The regional landscape has shifted with the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and the UAE. These agreements have fostered collaboration against shared threats, particularly from Iran, and have opened the door for discussions about potential F-35 sales to the UAE. However, selling the jets while preserving Israel’s QME requires a delicate balancing act. The U.S. must navigate the complex dynamics of regional security, ensuring stability while honoring its commitment to Israel’s military dominance.

In short, the Israeli factor remains a vital element in any potential F-35 sale to Arab nations, requiring diplomatic finesse and strategic planning to uphold both regional security and Israel’s qualitative edge.

Concerns Over Tech Security

The U.S. has significant technological and security concerns about sharing F-35 fighter jets with Saudi Arabia, primarily due to the jet’s cutting-edge technology and the risks of it being compromised. A major issue lies in the aircraft’s reliance on sophisticated software for essential functions like radar, weapons systems, flight controls, and maintenance. The U.S. does not allow any partner country access to the F-35’s source code, which means all software upgrades are done in the United States. This creates concerns about Saudi Arabia’s ability to maintain and upgrade the jets independently and raises the risk of vulnerabilities if the software is compromised. It also leaves Saudi Arabia dependent on the U.S. for ongoing support and updates.

Another concern is the potential for technology transfer to adversaries or the reverse engineering of sensitive components, which could compromise the jet’s stealth capabilities. Sharing this advanced technology with Saudi Arabia could also alter the region’s military balance of power, potentially initiating an arms race and undermining Israel’s qualitative military edge—a long-standing U.S. policy priority.

The F-35’s advanced network-centric capabilities introduce further risks, particularly related to data security and interconnectivity. The jet’s systems are designed to operate as part of a larger network, but this could expose vulnerabilities if Saudi Arabia’s systems are compromised. Additionally, integrating Saudi Arabia’s older 4th-generation fighter jets with the F-35’s advanced capabilities poses technical and security challenges.

Adding to these concerns is Saudi Arabia’s increasing military cooperation with China. If Chinese-made systems or networks are integrated into Saudi Arabia’s defense infrastructure, they could compromise the security of F-35 operations and expose sensitive U.S. technology. These risks, combined with the geopolitical implications of selling F-35s to Saudi Arabia, have led the U.S. to hesitate to approve such a deal. As a result, Saudi Arabia is exploring alternative options, including Turkey’s Kaan fighter jet, to meet its airpower needs. 

Human Rights and Yemen

Human rights concerns in Yemen significantly influence the U.S. decision-making process regarding the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia. The ongoing conflict in Yemen, where Saudi Arabia has played a major role, has been marked by widespread human rights violations and a devastating humanitarian crisis. The Saudi-led coalition has been accused of conducting unlawful airstrikes that have killed civilians, contributing to a crisis that has displaced millions and left many facing severe food insecurity.

Saudi-imposed blockades have further exacerbated the situation by restricting the delivery of vital humanitarian aid. Additionally, Saudi forces have been implicated in arbitrary arrests, forced disappearances, and even torture of detainees in Yemen. Reports of abuses extend to Saudi border guards, who have allegedly killed hundreds of Ethiopian migrants attempting to cross the Yemen-Saudi border—acts that may constitute crimes against humanity.

The conflict has also worsened conditions for women, with increased restrictions on their rights, including freedom of movement and access to aid. These human rights violations have drawn significant international criticism and calls for accountability. For the U.S., selling advanced weaponry like F-35s to Saudi Arabia raises serious ethical questions, as there is a risk these tools could be used to further perpetrate abuses in Yemen. These factors weigh heavily in U.S. decisions about arms sales to the kingdom.

Saudi Arabia’s Alternative Shopping Spree

So, if the F-35 is out of reach, where do the Saudis turn? They’re not exactly slouching when it comes to options.

Eurofighter Typhoon

The Eurofighter Typhoon, produced by a consortium of European nations, offers advanced capabilities, albeit not quite at the F-35 level. Saudi Arabia already operates the Typhoon and could look to expand its fleet.

Dassault Rafale

France’s Dassault Rafale is another contender. It’s combat-tested and boasts advanced avionics and weapons systems. Plus, the French are often less politically constrained in their arms dealings compared to the U.S.

Chinese J-20 or Russian Su-57

While less likely, Saudi Arabia could look eastward. The Chinese J-20 and Russian Su-57 are both stealth fighters that could fill the gap left by the absence of the F-35. However, aligning too closely with China or Russia would risk further straining Riyadh’s relationship with Washington.

Indigenous Development

Saudi Arabia has ambitious plans to bolster its domestic defense industry. Partnering with nations like South Korea or collaborating with European firms could pave the way for the kingdom to develop its own advanced fighters down the line.

What This Means for the Region

Saudi Arabia’s search for advanced fighter jets highlights shifting dynamics in the Middle East. The kingdom is asserting itself as a military and geopolitical heavyweight, but it’s also navigating a complicated web of alliances and rivalries.

For the U.S., this situation is a reminder that even close partnerships have limits. America’s hesitation to sell the F-35 to Saudi Arabia underscores its cautious approach to balancing regional power and protecting sensitive tech.

Meanwhile, competitors like China and Russia are undoubtedly watching closely. If Riyadh feels spurned by Washington, it could look elsewhere, further tilting the balance of power in a region that’s already a geopolitical powder keg.

Final Thoughts

The Saudi quest for advanced fighter jets is not only about airpower—it’s about positioning, influence, and navigating a complex geopolitical chessboard. While the kingdom won’t be flying F-35s anytime soon, its alternatives will still make waves in the region.

The big question now is whether Saudi Arabia’s defense ambitions will drive it closer to other global powers or whether it will find a way to work within the framework of its partnership with the United States. Either way, the skies over the Middle East are about to get a whole lot more crowded.

Stay tuned, folks. The game is far from over.