In the backdrop of its 2015 intervention in Syria, Russia has become increasingly close with Iran. Israel, which has cordial relations with the Kremlin, attempted to keep a power balance between striking Iranian and Hezbollah targets. Still, they are not arming Ukraine for fear Russia would send weapons to IRGC-backed organizations.
Though attempting to appease Moscow, there are signs Russia has increased cooperation with Iran, which includes armed drone procurements, transfer of warplanes, and potential help on the Iranian nuclear program. Iran, currently under a United Nations weapons embargo set to expire, has benefitted from the Russian partnership. It wouldn’t have sold Shahid drones at much international condemnation unless they received reciprocal help from the Kremlin.
Kremlin propagandists see the ongoing fighting as beneficial to Russia as the United States, and most of the world’s attention is focused on Israel—especially as military aid to Ukraine has come at a political gridlock in US Congress with the House Speaker currently vacated.
Turkey is another country that could potentially be involved. President Erdogan has heightened rhetoric against Israel, and the Turkish Republic is increasingly close with Qatar. This country actively funds militant groups that fight Israel and, at times, US forces such as the Taliban. Both Turkey and Qatar currently shelter Hamas’ leadership in their respective countries.
Ankara has taken slightly to lifting the Cypriot arms embargo by the US. Nicosia has grown relations with Tel Aviv, including the Merkava tank purchase and EastMed cooperation. Erdogan condemned plans for the new Indian trade route to the European Union, including ports in Israel and Greece—two of Turkey’s most significant regional rivals.
A degradation and destruction of the Israeli port if the war escalates out of control would benefit the Islamic Republic and Turkey in their plans to subvert India’s growing soft power in the region.
There is also another major factor of rogue elements of Middle East and North African intelligence agencies that could’ve possibly colluded with the IRGC against Israel. Israel and Saudi Arabia were near a breakthrough landmark peace agreement, which would’ve excluded many issues relating to Palestine.
The ongoing war and massacres could be an attempt by various MENA nations that don’t want the peace deal to commence. With Saudi Arabia being the most influential Muslim country, anti-Israel groups know there would be a domino effect of other Islamic nations making peace with the Jewish state.
What Israel’s Retaliation Could Look Like
Though a military response will be swift and deadly, it’ll be the more covert operations to look out for. Hamas’ leadership currently resides in Qatar, Turkey, and Iran. Hezbollah is stretched out along the Lebanese-Syrian-Iraqi-Iranian corridor.
Israeli external intelligence agencies such as Mossad will attempt to clean houses throughout the region to liquidate all those implicated in the surprise attacks. Israeli officials have conducted prior operations against fugitive Nazis post-WWII and Palestinian militants after the Munich Massacre in 1972.
There is a chance IRGC supporters will attempt to globalize attacks against Jews, as seen with the deadly shooting of Israelis in Egypt by a rogue policeman. If global attacks against Jews and Israeli citizens were to occur throughout the region and even in Western countries, a brutal vengeance operation by Mossad would also drag in other intelligence agencies to try to dissuade escalation, as seen with the US with Ukrainian military intelligence.
A Painful Lesson Learned
The attacks by the IRGC umbrella structure are a painful lesson for Israeli society regarding complacency and a lack of unity. Though the protests against Netanyahu are a righteous cause, they also put Israeli security at risk with a lack of reserves, as noted by their defense minister earlier this year.
Netanyahu’s policies and coalition with Ben Gvir also exacerbated the regional conflict, but the IRGC’s growing presence in the West Bank and Gaza also lit fire to the gasoline.
The Israeli government will review the attempt to maintain a power balance with countries such as Turkey and Russia, as Turkey shelters Hamas leadership while simultaneously making threats against Israel. Russia, which firmly controls Iran as a vassal, could’ve also warned the Mullahs but instead continue to encourage them as Putin runs an increasingly rogue regime that now actively colludes with North Korea, the Mullahs, and the Taliban.
Likewise, a further drift in Israeli-American relations could occur if they aren’t swiftly mended. For the past couple of years, Israel felt restrained by the current administration’s policies of attempting to keep a peace deal with Iran that never had a proper end tunnel. Because of this, Tel Aviv will be more likely to conduct operations without informing Washington in the future if the former thinks their national security is in jeopardy due to Western indecision.
The well-coordinated attack is not only haunting Israel but the entire world. In the age of growing intelligence capabilities and decades of fighting terror organizations, militants, with covert backing, can still inflict a vast loss of life, and because of this, the international intelligence apparatus will continue to go through an overhaul to reassess capabilities.
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