Can the Israeli-Iranian Cold War Turn Hot?

Israel and Iran currently have one of the most significant conflicts today. Both Middle Eastern powers are engaging in a shadow war that has expanded across different regions.

Initially, a tit-for-tat conflict, the ongoing Israel-Hamas War, and numerous fronts taking place in the region are bringing both Tel Aviv and Tehran closer to direct war than ever.

Israel-Hamas War

Against the backdrop of the heinous October 7th terrorist attacks by Hamas, Israel would immediately declare war for the first time in several decades.

The resulting war is amongst the most brutal in modern urban warfare. Close to two million Palestinians have been displaced by the fierce fighting between the IDF, Hamas organization, and various other Gazan militant groups.

The majority of Hamas’ battalions are defunct, and much of their existing rocket force has been decimated. Nevertheless, the jihadist group can swell its ranks through the standoff in Rafah or by gaining sympathies amongst the locals due to the brutality of the war thus far.

Currently, the Biden administration and Netanyahu cabinet are engaged in a diplomatic standoff, arguably pushing both countries’ diplomatic levels to a low not seen since the aftermath of the Yom Kippur War.

Nevertheless, as Israel’s war cabinet prepares contingency plans for a push into Rafah to eliminate the remaining Hamas battalions, a global humanitarian concern continues to weigh in. In contrast, other fronts of a potential regional war remain fluid.

Syrian and Lebanese Front

Immediately after the October 7th attacks, Hezbollah’s Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah, announced that his paramilitary group would also take part in the fighting at the behest of Hamas.

During the fighting in Israel’s north (close to 140,000) and Lebanon’s south (close to 87.000), a mass displacement has taken place in both countries, which has made the border a de facto ‘no man’s land.’

Not wanting to fall into Hezbollah’s dense fortifications, which gave the Israeli Defense Forces significant problems during the 2006 War, the IDF instead uses jamming and guided airstrikes, killing critical commanders of the organization along with members of Hamas’ branch in Lebanon.

Though not committing full force in the fighting, Hezbollah has drawn numerous IDF units in the north that could’ve been used for fighting in the Gaza Strip.

Wanting to eventually bring residents safely back to the north, Israel is preparing contingencies to force Hezbollah beyond the Litani River in Lebanon—effectively a demilitarized zone. The United States, France, and the United Nations are currently conducting negotiations to try to prevent another all-out Israeli-Hezbollah War, which would be a nightmare.

Syria, run by the long-standing Assad family, is a major backer of Hezbollah and Palestinian militant factions. The country is also a haven for IRGC officers who command various terrorist groups in the region.

Israel has frequently targeted Syrian military, IRGC, and Hezbollah weapons storage sites and facilities in the country, including a daring strike on Tehran’s embassy in Damascus that killed top-level Iranian military commanders.

The Syrian army is currently stretched thin and now relies on Iranian-affiliated militias, the IRGC, Hezbollah, and Russia for protection. With the Russian military redeploying military equipment and troops from Syria to Ukraine, Israeli strikes on the country will continue, with the Assad regime being incapable of stopping them.

Red Sea Front

The Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, is another affiliate of the Islamic Republic. Controlling the majority of the population of Yemen during the brutal civil war, Ansar Allah has also intervened at the behest of the IRGC and Hamas by targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea.

In lieu of repeated attacks in the Red Sea, the United States announced Operation Prosperity Guardian, which is a coalition of various countries that take part in defending commercial vessels from Houthis attacks.

The operation thus far has not been successful as the Houthis have not been directly targeted, with limited strikes on Yemen. Feeling emboldened by Western indecision, Ansar Allah continues to attack vessels in the region.

Simultaneously, the Houthis have launched drones and occasionally ballistic missiles at Israel, which have been ineffective to the sophisticated missile defense systems at Israeli disposal. So far, the IRGC has not been seen in Yemen during the ongoing war in Gaza compared to Lebanon or Syria, as geographically, the latter two countries would make an ideal launching pad for an attack on Israel.

How America is Reacting to the Tensions

The United States government is on high alert over possible attacks by the IRGC and their affiliates as tensions have put the region into a powder keg.

Over the past several weeks, the Biden Administration has been involved in a diplomatic dispute with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and his war cabinet over frustrations with how the war is being handled. Due to 2024 being a presidential election year, it can be assumed the Biden Administration is trying to be cavalier to both Israeli and Palestinian supporters but ultimately getting major pushback from both sides.

The current administration has been more reluctant to confront the Islamic Republic through sanctions or directly, even when their affiliates killed several American troops during a drone attack in Jordan.

It can be presumed the IRGC and Mullahs feel encouraged by the administration’s desire to hold onto the nuclear deal (JCPOA), which Tehran has used to bide time to build a nuclear weapon potentially.

For now, the US government wants to avoid a major war with Iran, as fears of being stretched thin by Russian, North Korean, and Chinese threats continue to exacerbate. Israel may be more willing to conduct more autonomous military operations, such as the air raid on Isfahan on April 19^th.

Likewise, the Islamic Republic itself is reluctant to conduct a direct war despite the first warlike rhetoric from the Mullahs. A myriad of internal problems, such as continuous nationwide protests, separatist movements, hostile neighbors, and deteriorating socioeconomic issues, has made the Mullahs highly unpopular amongst Iranians, and a direct war could exacerbate their thin hold on power.

Whatever the future holds in the regional conflict between Israel and Iran will remain fluid for the time being. Both countries have two unpopular governments, and any direct war would be costly to the broader Middle East.

For now, the regional conflict between Israel and Iran will be a tit-for-tat Cold War, primarily using Lebanon, Syria, and the Palestinian Territories as a battleground. Still, one costly direct action could ignite the Middle East and international community in a way not seen since the rhetoric of the 1973 Yom Kippur War.