The ongoing Israel–Hamas War and brewing regional conflict in the Middle East could have far-reaching blowback and consequences for the world. Despite the initial battle between Israelis and Palestinians being fought over land, the geopolitical quagmire quickly became embroiled in sectarianism and religious extremism.
The Islamic Republic, led by an Islamic theocratic regime, looks to exacerbate tensions into a religious conflict—which is currently a goal of the Mullahs. Wanting to spread the ‘Islamic Revolution’ to other theaters, the Mullahs look to manipulate the emotions of Muslims worldwide and inspire and coerce them into a “good versus bad” jihad.
Israel-Hamas War and Regional Escalation
On October 7, Hamas committed one of the worst terrorist actions the world has seen since the September 11 attacks. Breaching Israeli barriers and catching the Shin Bet off guard, various Hamas hit squads committed an indiscriminate slaughter, with the Israeli and foreigner death toll reaching at least 1300 as of this article.
Israeli leadership vowed a swift and robust response, and an emergency government with a formal declaration of war not seen in 50 years is currently enacted. A scorching aerial campaign has taken place with more airstrikes in one week than the US-led coalition used against ISIS at the terrorist organization’s height.
Though strikes successfully liquidate key militants, a humanitarian catastrophe is also unfolding in the Gaza Strip as two million Palestinians remain trapped. Negotiations for Egypt to allow in the refugees currently remain fluid.
Fears of escalation between Hezbollah, Assad, and the rest of the Iranian-backed Shiite militias across the country have raised concerns in DC. UD.Cer orders of POTUS, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin dispatched the Eisenhower and Ford Carrier Strike Groups to assist with deterrence, humanitarian operations, and potential combat troops to supplement Israel if the region ignites into a powder keg.
How the Spillover is Affecting the World
Regional tensions in the Middle East have given autocrats breathing room under pressure for their aggressive posture in 2023. Vladimir Putin benefits from a distracted United States and hopes to freeze the lines of contact in Ukraine and turn the war into a frozen conflict.
After hundreds of thousands of military casualties and the decimation of his elite force, Putin hopes to rebuild and re-arm the Russian military while the world is distracted. Biden also looks to combine Ukrainian and Israeli aid into joint packages, which can bypass Congress’ gridlock better.
Ilham Aliyev, the Azerbaijani autocrat, came under fire for using fear and military tactics to regain the Armenian-held areas of Karabakh, which caused a wholescale ethnic cleansing. Despite being warned of further aggression, the State Department stated Azerbaijan looks to attack Armenia in the upcoming weeks/months.
South Korea has also warned of North Korea using Hamas-style tactics against Seoul, and tensions remain tense with NATO-member Turkey and China’s quiet but dangerous posture over Taiwan.
The Mullahs and Their Proxies Want a Religious War
The Islamic Republic has helped plan and finance Hamas’ terror attacks and is the main backer of various Shiite militia groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Though not sending their military for now to intervene and fight Israel, Khamenei’s motives in provoking a harsh Israeli response are arguably something he wanted all along.
Against the backdrop of the Iranian Revolution, the then Ayatollah Khomeini vowed to spread Islamic theocracy and his revolution across other nations—ultimately starting the Saudi-Iranian Cold War. One such country the Mullahs succeeded in was Lebanon, which has a disenfranchised Shiite Muslim population. Hezbollah was formed with IRGC assistance, and the militants have had an iron grip on Lebanon ever since.
Heightened regional and sectarian tensions, particularly over a sensitive subject such as Israel and Palestine, are prime for radicalization. Muslims worldwide are prideful and see the Palestinian cause as synonymous with Islam. Bin Laden would use the Palestinian cause as part of his fatwa against the United States and various terrorist attacks.
Khomeini’s successor, Khamenei, also sees himself as a sort of prophet who will be the spiritual leader to “liberate al-Quds” (Jerusalem). By playing into the emotions of Muslims worldwide, Khamenei looks to gather sympathy and support for the Islamic Republic and their various affiliates in the Middle East.
For example, Hamas, along with their executions of Israelis, also murdered migrant workers from Southeast Asia. Southeast Asian Buddhists have not exactly had the most peaceful coexistence with Muslims, and the brutal militias in the region could carry out revenge acts against Muslims not affiliated with Hamas, the IRGC, or ISIS.
Western Europe, with an ever-growing Muslim population, remains a powder keg. Heightened incidents in France, Britain, and Germany have forced their parliaments to implement strict actions such as arrests for pro-Hamas protests and threats of lengthy prison terms and deportations.
Recorded Incidents Thus Far
The first true spillover from the Israel-Hamas War came in Arras, France, on October 13, when a teacher was stabbed to death by a Chechen inspired by Hamas’ call of rage. A similar stabbing occurred in China on the same day.
During the same weekend, numerous bomb threats occurred at the Louvre and metro in France. Radicalization against Muslims, particularly Palestinians, happened as a domestic terrorist reportedly killed a six-year-old Palestinian-American child.
Due to the rise of threats and hate crimes, countries such as Britain, France, and Germany have moved to take more hardline security measures. Other countries with a sizable radicalized Muslim minority that could also face security issues in the upcoming months include Spain, Greece, Italy, Sweden, and the Netherlands.
The Mullahs now look to implicate plans that Osama Bin Laden ultimately wanted by forcing the West and supporting states of Israel and America worldwide to create an “us versus them” crackdown on Islamic extremism in hopes of having even more supporters and sympathies for the cause of the Islamic Republic.
The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have repercussions for tens of millions of people in the region, and the war will also reach global proportions regarding spillovers and fallout.
The question is, are the world governments prepared for such a scenario?
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