This article was written by Jesutimilehin Akamo and originally published on Grey Dynamics

Key Judgements

  • It is almost certain that most of central Africa is unstable. While Sao Tome and Principe has remained peaceful in the last decade, other countries in the region are either at the brink of conflict or have active conflicts.
  • Oil, as a national security issue, was the primary reason for AFRICOM’s establishment. Therefore, even if AFRICOM reduces its engagement in Africa, it is highly likely to maintain its presence and relationship in Central Africa.
  • African countries will highly likely overlook interference in their internal affairs because of the help they receive from AFRICOM.

Measuring the Temperature

The Central African Republic (CAR) is in a conflict situation. Since 2012, when crisis re-emerged, finding a lasting peace has been difficult. However, Russia is helping.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is battling the Allied Democratic Force and other warlords. It is also facing the rise of an Islamic State (IS) in the northern part of the country.

Grey Dynamics’ Africa Intelligence Assessment indicates that Cameroon is unstable. Although there is no full-blown conflict in the country, its south-west and north-west regions suffer repression because they rebel against perceived injustice. The government tries to silence them through the threat or actual use of force.

Chad faces a Boko Haram insurgency and anti-government rebellions. There are also occasional clashes between the government and anti-government rebels over mining resources.

In April 2020, the Chadian government launched a successful offensive called “Operation Wrath of Boma” against Boko Haram. However, Chad still has to work with Nigeria, Niger, and Cameroon to maintain security. Yet, as shown by Grey Dynamics’ Africa Intelligence Assessment, the Chadian victory does not guarantee stability.

In Angola, unrest in Cabinda, its oil-rich region, is ongoing and anti-government rebels face government forces over the unbalanced distribution of oil wealth.

Equatorial Guinea is fragile and the situation in Gabon is tense. Both of them experience no active conflict. Congo Republic (Brazzaville) is yet to experience any conflict since the end of the post-election in November 2018.