This article was written by Jesutimilehin Akamo and originally published on Grey Dynamics

Key Judgements

  • It is almost certain that most of central Africa is unstable. While Sao Tome and Principe has remained peaceful in the last decade, other countries in the region are either at the brink of conflict or have active conflicts.
  • Oil, as a national security issue, was the primary reason for AFRICOM’s establishment. Therefore, even if AFRICOM reduces its engagement in Africa, it is highly likely to maintain its presence and relationship in Central Africa.
  • African countries will highly likely overlook interference in their internal affairs because of the help they receive from AFRICOM.

Measuring the Temperature

The Central African Republic (CAR) is in a conflict situation. Since 2012, when crisis re-emerged, finding a lasting peace has been difficult. However, Russia is helping.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is battling the Allied Democratic Force and other warlords. It is also facing the rise of an Islamic State (IS) in the northern part of the country.

Grey Dynamics’ Africa Intelligence Assessment indicates that Cameroon is unstable. Although there is no full-blown conflict in the country, its south-west and north-west regions suffer repression because they rebel against perceived injustice. The government tries to silence them through the threat or actual use of force.