Here’s what we know so far:

• The plane was flying above 30,000 feet when it “suddenly disappeared” from radar.
• Russian media outlets are saying the pilot advised of technical problems and requested a divert to the nearest airport before the aircraft disappeared, but those reports haven’t been confirmed.
• Weather was not a factor.
• The crash site is near Housna, approximately 185 miles north of the airport in Sharm el-Sheikh.
• Islamists militants in the Sinai linked to ISIS claimed responsibility for the crash, according to an online statement.
• Russian Transport Minister Maxim Sokolov said the claim “cannot be considered reliable.”

Indeed, ISIS having a man-portable air-defense system (MANPADS) capable of reaching an aircraft flying at 31,000 feet is a very tough sell. Aside from the video, which, interestingly enough, was not shown on the official ISIS channels, the group has not produced any video or still photography to substantiate its claim of “shooting down” the Russian jet. If there is determined to be foul play involved, the more likely scenario would be some sort of explosive device secreted aboard the airplane, instead of a scenario where a MANPADS actually shot the aircraft down.

So if we take ISIS completely out of the equation, the most likely scenario would be something similar to what happened to China Airlines Flight 611. That aircraft, a Boeing 747, disintegrated in mid-air on 25 May, 2002, approximately 20 minutes after takeoff. The aircraft had experienced a tail strike twenty-two years before, and repairs made to the damaged section were not done in accordance to Boeing specifications.

The “repaired” portion of the 747’s tail section, following countless cycles of pressurization and depressurization, finally cracked and then gave way entirely, resulting in an explosive decompression. The explosion caused the aircraft to break apart in mid-air, and everyone aboard perished.

Incidently, this particular Metrojet Airbus also suffered a tail strike early in its service life, and the point in flight which the incident occurred is eerily similar to Dynasty 611. It’s a slippery slope to speculate too much on what happened here, but we’ll definitely keep you posted as more substantiated data becomes available.

In the meantime, our thoughts are with Metrojet and all of the families of the Russian and Ukrainian passengers and crew aboard Flight 9268.

(Photos courtesy of independent.co.uk)