The Congressional Budget Office released a new report recently that indicated that America’s forthcoming air-superiority fighter, currently known only as the Penetrating Counter Air (PCA) program, could cost as much as $300 million per air frame. As a result, headlines painting the program as yet another example of rampant and unchecked government spending have flooded the media. However, a closer look at these cost projections, along with a bit of perspective granted by looking into previous programs, suggest that the cost-frenzy associated with the development of this new aircraft may be a bit premature.
First, let’s assume that this estimate is based on hard data culled from a program that’s already far enough along in its development to offer them (which the PCA almost certainly is not). For the sake of argument, we’ll assume the first batch order of the PCA will indeed cost $300 million per aircraft — a tally based on the cost of research and development and the low volume of initial orders — that would indeed make it more than three times more expensive than the F-35 currently costs per plane, as numerous media outlets have reported. However, that comparison is unfair and unrealistic.
To date, the F-35 has been in production since 2007 — making its 2018 price tag of under $90 million per aircraft a representation of multiple previous purchases that have offset the cost of developing new production practices and the cost of technology development that went into the aircraft. In fact, the first F-35As to roll out of Lockheed Martin assembly plants actually rang in at $297 million a piece — practically nailing the Congressional report’s “doomsday” cost prediction for a new fighter platform. The F-22, it’s worth noting, came in at around $250 million per plane right up until it was canceled.
Of course, the F-35 isn’t a model program — and after years of cost overruns and delays, the advanced fighter tends to get beat up in the media (including by this outlet) — but that’s par for the course for the most expensive weapons system in history. Until the F-35 starts proving itself in combat, all there is to do is analyze what it’s done thus far. With the F-35 entering into combat operations in recent months, there’s a chance the fighter will prove it was worth the cost and the wait — but it won’t alleviate America’s need for a new air superiority fighter.