Hypothetical Russian Civil War: The Wagner Group Uprising

I remember sitting with a Russian friend of mine in a fancy New York restaurant overlooking the Hudson River in 2020.

My very wealthy, very connected, and very smart friend was worried. He was concerned that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was a tipping point and that Russia would eventually slip into a civil war that would see the end of Russia as we know it.

Is this the beginning of the end? Was Ukraine the tipping point for Putin as he has created his own metaverse inside Russia?

Time will tell. Enjoy this hypothetical I created with the help of OpenAi.

What Does Civil War Look Like in Russia?

The first signs of a hypothetical civil war in Russia, instigated by the Wagner Group, a private military company with close ties to the Russian government, would likely be subtle. Unusual Russian troop movements whispered rumors of a coup in the Kremlin, and a sudden increase in the Wagner Group’s activities could be early indicators.

The leader of the Wagner Group, a man deeply embedded in Russia’s military and intelligence services, would begin consolidating power. He would recruit allies within the Russian military and government, preparing for a swift and brutal coup attempt.

Wagner forces would seize key Russian military installations and government buildings. Top military officials would be targeted to destabilize Russia’s military leadership and sow chaos.

In response, the Russian government would declare a state of emergency, mobilizing loyal military units to counter the Wagner forces. Major cities like Moscow and Saint Petersburg could become battlegrounds, with street-to-street fighting causing widespread civilian casualties.

Simultaneously, a propaganda war would ensue. The Russian government would attempt to maintain control of the narrative and rally public support. The Wagner leader would portray himself as a Russian patriot, trying to save Russia from corruption and mismanagement.

Internationally, this hypothetical Russian civil war would cause widespread alarm. The UN Security Council would hold emergency meetings, and sanctions would likely be imposed on the Wagner Group and its leaders. With increased patrols in Eastern Europe and the Baltic Sea, NATO would be on high alert.

The outcome of this hypothetical Russian civil war would be uncertain, with the potential for a prolonged conflict or even a partition of the country. It’s a scenario that the world would hope to avoid but must be prepared for.

Please note that this is a hypothetical scenario and does not reflect current or predicted events. The actual course of events in such a situation would depend on a wide range of factors, including the actions of the Russian government, the international community, and the Russian people themselves.

Top Headlines Are Unfolding Now From the BBC, NY Times, Wash Post, Al Jazeera, Economist, and More

• Russia-Ukraine war live: Wagner forces ‘control’ Rostov army HQ
  • Russia’s FSB security service has opened a criminal case against Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary force, for calling for an armed mutiny, Russia’s state-owned TASS news agency said. Read more here. 

• Putin to speak as Wagner mercenary chief accused of Mutiny
  • Events are moving quickly, with plenty of claims and counter-claims. Russia’s defence ministry has said Wagner fighters were “tricked into the criminal adventure and armed rebellion” by Prigozhin, the leader of the mercenary group. In a statement carried on state-run media, the ministry said many Wagner members “had already realised their mistake” and now wanted assistance from the authorities to be able to “return safely” to their permanent bases. Read more here. 

• Russia on Edge Amid Claims of ‘Armed Rebellion’
  • Yevgeny Prigozhin entered the courtyard of the military facility in Rostov-on-Don, as seen in video confirmed by The Times. The Russian military has not commented. Read more here. 

• Putin calls on Wagner group to halt ‘rebellion,’ says organizers will be punished

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin, citing betrayal and a threat to his nation, said he had ordered the military to squash a rebellion led by Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin. Read more here.

• Wagner rebels turn against Putin’s army 

  • The Wagner rebellion began with a series of video messages by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the group’s head, who accused Russia’s army of attacking his forces. He vowed to march thousands of his fighters to deal with his enemies, prompting authorities to charge him with insurrection. Read more here.