As this is being written, the Air Force is working to certify the F-25 Lightning as a nuclear-capable bomber of the B61-12 version which has a set of tail fins that allow it to be steered to a precise GPS location by the F-35.
How serious is this threat?
Putin’s latest threat sounded like this, “I want to remind you that our country also has various means of destruction … and when the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, to protect Russia and our people, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal,” Putin added. “It’s not a bluff.” These remarks in a speech were framed defensively in terms of Russia defending its territory against a large-scale invasion by Ukraine with NATO which is Putin’s fever dream scenario. In it, he imagines NATO exploiting Russian reversals on the battlefield and marching on Moscow.
At a recent political fundraiser, President Biden pointed to Russia’s military failures in Ukraine, as “..significantly underperforming.” He then added that this raised the threat of Putin using nuclear weapons adding, “We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis,”
Biden made the remarks at a fundraiser though, as opposed to a nationally televised speech to the nation. This suggests we don’t take the latest threat by Putin very seriously. The administration’s national security agencies say there is no reason to believe that Russia intends to use a nuclear weapon in the near future.
Quiet Deterrence
Behind the scenes and without any public disclosure the United States could take some steps to put Putin on notice that he would not get away with using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. These are strategic moves that Russia would notice without them being noticed by the public and the media.
For example, the US navy could send all its ballistic missile submarines out to sea and move its cruise missile-carrying surface ships closer to the Russian mainland in the Sea of Japan, the Mediterranean, and the Baltic Sea.
The Air Force could deploy a wing(or more) of B-52s and B-2 bombers to England and other countries in Europe.
In the countries where US nuclear bombs are kept, the air squadrons tasked with delivering them to their targets could increase their training flights.
We might also reposition and add to the number of our satellites over Russia.
Finally, the US might engage in test firings of its land and sea-based missiles. It is customary to advise Russia in advance of these tests and tell them where and when they will occur.
Without a tat-for-tat in the international press, or offhand remarks by the President at a political fundraiser these measures conducted in whole or in part outside the public eye would communicate to Russia just how seriously we consider his threats to be. We really haven’t seen any indication that these things are happening. We also note that Ukraine has launched several attacks inside Russian territory since the war began, most recently hitting the Kerch bridge between the Russian mainland and Crimea without Russia responding with a nuclear weapon.
It should be remembered that Putin would like to have Ukraine in one piece while keeping Russia in one piece as well. While Russia is obviously on the back foot when it comes to the fighting on the ground and in the air, it should be remembered that the Russia idea of “acceptable losses” is very different from our own here in the West. In WWII, Afghanistan, and the wars in Georgia and Chechnia, the Russians were willing to take routinely horrific losses in men and material without quitting. As long as Russia itself survives, its leaders are willing to shed a lot of their own blood in attaining their foreign policy aims. While their losses in Ukraine would be staggering by US standards, they are not seen that way by Moscow which continues to feed the meatgrinder hoping to exhaust the resolve and weapons of Ukraine and its backers in the West. This strategy has a foreseeable outcome for Putin if successful while using a nuclear weapon unleashes great uncertainty into the prospect of a Russian victory in Ukraine. At this point, Russia hasn’t reached the point of desperation born of a fear of the whole country collapsing that would compel them to use a nuclear weapon.
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