Missiles attack a modern city. A SOFREP original illustration.
Iran’s strategic maneuvering through its proxy, Hamas, is becoming increasingly apparent in a complex geopolitical chess game unfolding in the Middle East.
While Iran officially denies any direct involvement in the attacks on Israel by Hamas, there have been speculations about mounting evidence that Tehran is playing a significant role behind the scenes, using the Palestinian group as a tool to achieve its broader regional objectives.
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, recently stated in an interview with Al Jazeera that if Israeli attacks on Gaza, which have been taking a heavy toll on innocent civilians, persist without resolution, it is highly probable that “many other fronts will be opened.”
He ominously added that the option of a broader war is “not ruled out” and is increasingly likely.
But what are the motivations behind Iran’s support for Hamas and its willingness to escalate tensions in the region? To understand Iran’s speculated strategy, it’s crucial to examine the broader context and Iran’s national objectives in the Middle East.
Countering the Abraham Accords
One key objective for Iran is to counter the American-brokeredAbraham Accords, which aimed to foster peaceful coexistence between Israel and Arab states in the region.
The historical rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia for leadership within the Muslim world is well-known. Iran was deeply disturbed by the prospect of Saudi Arabia, the Gulf region’s leading Arab state, considering diplomatic engagement with Israel under the mediation of US President Joe Biden.
Iran’s strategic maneuvering through its proxy, Hamas, is becoming increasingly apparent in a complex geopolitical chess game unfolding in the Middle East.
While Iran officially denies any direct involvement in the attacks on Israel by Hamas, there have been speculations about mounting evidence that Tehran is playing a significant role behind the scenes, using the Palestinian group as a tool to achieve its broader regional objectives.
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, recently stated in an interview with Al Jazeera that if Israeli attacks on Gaza, which have been taking a heavy toll on innocent civilians, persist without resolution, it is highly probable that “many other fronts will be opened.”
He ominously added that the option of a broader war is “not ruled out” and is increasingly likely.
But what are the motivations behind Iran’s support for Hamas and its willingness to escalate tensions in the region? To understand Iran’s speculated strategy, it’s crucial to examine the broader context and Iran’s national objectives in the Middle East.
Countering the Abraham Accords
One key objective for Iran is to counter the American-brokeredAbraham Accords, which aimed to foster peaceful coexistence between Israel and Arab states in the region.
The historical rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia for leadership within the Muslim world is well-known. Iran was deeply disturbed by the prospect of Saudi Arabia, the Gulf region’s leading Arab state, considering diplomatic engagement with Israel under the mediation of US President Joe Biden.
The Abraham Accords represented a major shift in the Middle East, potentially creating a network of US-centered alliances controlling vital maritime chokepoints, including the Straits of Hormuz, the Suez Canal, and the Straits of Bab Al Mandab. This change would significantly constrain Iran’s influence, particularly if Saudi Arabia and Israel were to establish diplomatic relations.
Iran, having assumed the role of the principal opponent of Israel in the region, could not tolerate the end of Israel’s isolation in the Arab world. By backing Hamas and escalating tensions, Iran seeks to disrupt and derail any progress toward peaceful coexistence, effectively preserving its regional influence.
The Iranian ‘Fronts’ Against Israel
Iran’s support for Hamas is part of a broader strategy that involves multiple fronts or proxies aimed at countering Israel. These “fronts” include Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, a network of militant groups in Syria, and support for arming Palestinian groups in the West Bank.
Hezbollah in Lebanon. Formed with the help of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hezbollah is one of Israel’s primary adversaries in the region. It receives substantial financial aid, an extensive arsenal of weapons, military training, and intelligence support from Iran. Hezbollah actively participates in regional conflicts in line with Iran’s interests.
Hamas in Palestine. Established in 1987 during the first Palestinian intifada, Hamas has received increasing military and economic assistance from Iran, particularly after the PLO’s peace agreements with Israel in the 1990s. Iran’s partnership with Hamas has grown, and the group is a key component of Iran’s strategy to counter Israel.
🚨🚨🚨FLASH FLASH FLASH: The next phase of the NEW Arab-Israeli War has begun!! Hezbollah launches an invasion of Israel from the Lebanon, with rockets, artillery and drones, as Hezbollah troops enter and attack Israel!
Militant Groups in Syria. Iran has established a significant presence in Syria, with more than 13 military bases across the country. The Imam Ali base near the Iraq border serves as a vital conduit for moving troops and supplies. Iran has also sought to position the Iraqi Kata’ib Hezbollah militia in Syria and created a new pan-Shia group, the al-Imam Hussein division, with members from various countries playing a role in arming Palestinian militants.
Arming Palestinian Groups in the West Bank. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, expressed the need to arm the West Bank, similar to Gaza, further emphasizing Iran’s commitment to supporting Palestinian groups.
The Geopolitical Implications
Iran’s strategic backing of Hamas and its broader regional objectives have several geopolitical implications, including:
Stalling Regional Peace: Iran’s support for Hamas and its involvement in escalating tensions in the region serves to stall efforts toward regional peace and coexistence, such as the Abraham Accords.
Strengthening Iran’s Position: Iran’s gains, particularly through its partnership with Hamas, help consolidate its regional influence. The unity of its regional proxies, including Hezbollah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, furthers Iran’s position.
Challenges for US Diplomacy: The US finds itself in a tricky situation as it seeks to maintain its support for Israel while avoiding being dragged into a major war in the Middle East. President Biden has expressed concerns about a potential Israeli occupation of Gaza, which could have severe diplomatic consequences.
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In summary, Iran’s strategy to use Hamas as a tool to advance its regional ambitions is becoming increasingly evident. By allegedly escalating tensions in the region and disrupting efforts toward regional peace, Tehran seeks to strengthen its own position and counter the Abraham Accords.
The complex web of regional alliances and power dynamics makes the situation in the Middle East even more precarious, with Iran emerging as a significant player in the ongoing geopolitical chess game. The region’s future remains uncertain, with potentially far-reaching consequences for all parties involved.
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